earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 sorry, had to do it. cras is on board. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_pcp_078s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That event was crazy down here. We had around 2" on campus...was a freshman then, and a senior now. Imagine seeing accumulating snow in OCTOBER, TWICE, during my 4 years of college? lol But a good point that NJWinter23 brought up to me in conversation was that in the October 28th, 2008 event, the trough became negatively tilted, and the surface low backed to the NW, so our winds were actually NNW during the deformation precip. Insane! This is a luxury we most likely will not have this time around. It's all about the dynamical cooling. interesting....I dont think i tracked it and when i was at work that day, my co-workers crapped themselves...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 new brunswick NJ had it rip for a little bit and it stuck to grass....shoot, if this pans out, im good up in the hills of SW CT. http://good-times.webshots.com/album/568336738YJCJqf?start=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nice phase on the Euro. 51hrs:: 54hrs: 57hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 how did that one in 79 look like? had to be cbb heaven..... It really wasnt...good ML frontogenesis on an anafrontal storm. That stat also shows just how anaomalous the Oct 2008 bomb was in NW NJ and NE PA....it shattered their snowfall records for Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://good-times.we...YJCJqf?start=12 geeeeeeez....thats what being crammed in a small office will do to you. totally underestimated how it stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Five minutes before I saw this map, I would have given Central Park a 10% chance to see one inch of snow Saturday. Obviously, HPC is more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It really wasnt...good ML frontogenesis on an anafrontal storm. That stat also shows just how anaomalous the Oct 2008 bomb was in NW NJ and NE PA....it shattered their snowfall records for Oct. Lets just say I would have not made it to work that day..Long Valley(500-600') had 8", the top of Schooleys Mtn (1000'+) had 12" and was shut down, Hackettstown in a valley on the other side of the Mtn had 4-5"...20" fell at Hunter Mtn and I believe somewhere in the Poconos as well....so if they did it at 1000' in nw NJ in 2008, it is completely fathomable that Worcester can do it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 geeeeeeez....thats what being crammed in a small office will do to you. totally underestimated how it stuck. Yea I really couldnt believe what was going on...one of the more memorable storms in my lifetime for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://cdn2-b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_full_width_scaled/hash/e3/bb/e3bb9adcdbffb79cad5a6a3357d39aea.JPG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 And now we see if the NAM is joining rank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Gotta catch some sleep---talk to you weenies in a few hours. Think snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Gotta catch some sleep---talk to you weenies in a few hours. Think snow. Come on 1st all nighter of the year man! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 SREF's jogged west a bit. Nice spread to the west beginning to show up...probably a few harder hitting members starting to creep into the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If today's 0z suite pans out, I wouldn't be surprised to see Upton issue Winter Weather Advisories for the CWA, especially for the northwest suburbs. Moreover, the unusual fact that this storm would give accumulations to our area 50 days earlier than the onset of winter gives more credence to that idea. Does anyone know when was the earliest WWA issued for NYC proper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is a highly impressive threat for late October. I can't believe there's even a possibility of snow in coastal areas, but it seems the pattern is supportive in some ways of something like this actually happening. lol Sucks I'm in upstate New York though, where I'll be missing this in the city if it were to happen, but I still have love for you all. The upstate thread is dead, so I'll be posting here for the time being, tracking with you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 And the NAM goes....EAST. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro ensembles are very bullish...maybe more than the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Goodbye crickets, impatiens, and even the occasional tickle me plant. R.I.P. Looks like we loose the plants early at the coast this year. Some of those winters sucked. Some of the big winters had the annuals going to near December on the coast, then it hit very hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The euro ensembles must have some weenie solutions. Any coastal huggers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS goes BOOM! Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 6 Z GFS is further west then the 00z at 54 hrs compared to 60 on the 00z At 66 hrs it is also 6 MBS deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Once again , it looks like the gfs has caved to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow this thread is almost unreadable, everyone needs to read uptons disco for a reality check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow this thread is almost unreadable, everyone needs to read uptons disco for a reality check. You are impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 All the guidance overnight has shifted west, now that we are about 2 days away from the event, the likelihood for a significant coastal storm is rapidly increasing. Rule of thumb, if the euro shows a storm 3 or 4 runs in a row, it usually isnt wrong even if there is a hiccup run here or there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 All the guidance overnight has shifted west, now that we are about 2 days away from the event, the likelihood for a significant coastal storm is rapidly increasing. Rule of thumb, if the euro shows a storm 3 or 4 runs in a row, it usually isnt wrong even if there is a hiccup run here or there... Ive learned that when the euro is consistently showing a storm for more than four runs i tend to believe it has the right idea, its accuracy is almost second to none although it does waver periodically. The fact the gfs is showing somewhat of the euro solution now goes to show you that i think. Like last few winters the euro has more times than not been the leader in overall accuracy with storms. So unless the euro has a sudden epic collapse theres no reason not to believe it at the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hey Noreaster, have you seen the overnight models? This thread has been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 UKIE sounding from KNYC at 72 hours. This is very very close, cold all the way to just above the surface (surface temp is 2.6, dewpoint 1.4) and 850's are -5. 700mb is between -8 and -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow, just saw the Euro and GFS. I checked again, and all the energy for this storm is onshore right now, and with the models more or less in agreement (QPF differences) I think we are getting close to our final solution. The storm track is not too close, which will compromise some QPF but allow cold air to work in because it is, again, October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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