And we're off - first threat for a few mangled flakes

[snywx]

This is a setup where even people at 500 feet would see 6-8" and the city would see very little...maybe an inch or two of slop. Obviously October is a big reason for that.

Should be interesting up here if the Euro has its way..

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

typical NW trend! lol

i know some of you guys saw it coming.....

[earthlight]

72 hour Euro clown maps....showing 3 hr accumulated snowfall.

[winterwx21]

Yeah--it's a forecasting nightmare. If the Euro verifies I will be more than happy with my few inches on the grass.

Interestingly, Newark has never recorded more than 0.3" of snow in October (10/20/1952). So if this all works out we will be making history.

That's if the snow can stick on the tarmac which is still cooling down from the 108 F degree day three months ago.

That's the thing. Since it has never happened before, what are the odds of it happening during the afternoon hours on a warm wet ground? I'd be suprised if the city or even the nearby suburbs see any accumulation at all. Way too much to overcome. To me it looks like non accumulating wet snow at best. I don't see how it's gonna accumulate with temps above freezing during the daylight hours on a warm ground. Too early in the season to get excited.

[earthlight]

Here's the frame before that...at 69 hrs. That would be 4 inches of snow in 3 hours over parts of NJ and PA.

[MJO812]

0z JMA still has the same solution

[ORH_wxman]

Man those euro clown maps are really weenie-ish...those are going to be a nightmare in the winter when people post them.

[earthlight]

Amazingly the 2m temps look cooler on high resolution than they did on the vista graphics. At 66 hours the 2m temp is around 2 c in NYC and colder just inland. By 69 hours the 32 F line is straddling the watchung mountains in NJ.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Here's the frame before that...at 69 hrs. That would be 4 inches of snow in 3 hours over parts of NJ and PA.

you deform band slut....

[earthlight]

Pretty impressive run all things considered. The surface low is down to 992mb in the frame posted below.

[ORH_wxman]

Amazingly the 2m temps look cooler on high resolution than they did on the vista graphics. At 66 hours the 2m temp is around 2 c in NYC and colder just inland. By 69 hours the 32 F line is straddling the watchung mountains in NJ.

They did that too here compared to the WSI maps in the first event for tomorrow night here. I'm starting to think wunderground has some weenie algorithm in it. They don't match WSI very well...they seem to be run, and then pass through an adjustment period on metfan4life's computer.

[Dsnowx53]

The Euro shows the phasing between our shortwave, and the vorticity in/near the Gulf really well. This leads to rapid height rises out ahead of the storm. That vorticity has Gulf connections, too, and as we saw with Boxing Day, when these interactions happen, it can really buckle the pattern a lot more than during any typical phase.

[earthlight]

Man those euro clown maps are really weenie-ish...those are going to be a nightmare in the winter when people post them.

Oh I can only imagine. They're printing out 4 inches in 3 hours from a coastal storm in October. They don't seem to be elevation oriented either.

It's going to be a long winter with these new wunderground maps.

[earthlight]

They did that too here compared to the WSI maps in the first event for tomorrow night here. I'm starting to think wunderground has some weenie algorithm in it. They don't match WSI very well...they seem to be run, and then pass through an adjustment period on metfan4life's computer.

LOL...I thought they were weenied out during Irene, too..when they showed the landfall near Toms River. Turns out it was spot on almost to the exact exit on the Garden State Parkway.

Not sure what they are up to with the 2m temperatures..but they definitely seem colder on the high resolution graphics. I guess we will see.

[Dsnowx53]

LOL...I thought they were weenied out during Irene, too..when they showed the landfall near Toms River. Turns out it was spot on almost to the exact exit on the Garden State Parkway.

Not sure what they are up to with the 2m temperatures..but they definitely seem colder on the high resolution graphics. I guess we will see.

It would make sense that they are cooler. The higher resolution can probably better grasp dynamical cooling situations, since that's a mesoscale feature.

[earthlight]

It would make sense that they are cooler. The higher resolution can probably better grasp dynamical cooling situations, since that's a mesoscale feature.

I guess, you would think they would show up in the vista maps though since it's the same model and model resolution. But I guess that it's the lack of the zooming availability---it's probably smoothed out on the national map.

I don't know what Will's WSI graphics look like...but I'd assume they are national maps too.

[ORH_wxman]

It would make sense that they are cooler. The higher resolution can probably better grasp dynamical cooling situations, since that's a mesoscale feature.

I don't think they are correct. Unless I'm going to get like 4-5" of snow tomorrow night.

[earthlight]

Here's the Ukie for those who haven't seen it or were asking for the image earlier.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_0z/f72.gif

[ORH_wxman]

I guess, you would think they would show up in the vista maps though since it's the same model and model resolution. But I guess that it's the lack of the zooming availability---it's probably smoothed out on the national map.

I don't know what Will's WSI graphics look like...but I'd assume they are national maps too.

WSI can zoom into regions. They still don;t match up when I do that. I think there is some weenie smoothing algorithms that make it change.

[Dark Energy]

it probably is at higher res on the close up shots. Just like on ewall with the GFS. the national maps are the regular res, then the regional maps for our area are 37 km res. It shows more detail. Just my thinking. They may not tell you that about the EC, but it probly is what is happening. Dont forget, that model just got an update to really hi res, so it's possible.

[earthlight]

I don't think they are correct. Unless I'm going to get like 4-5" of snow tomorrow night.

Yeah, the more I look at it the more I see the disconnect. Wunderground maps at 72hr have the 32 f 2m temp line east of my location...while the vista maps are still west of my location. Pretty obvious differences.

Not too big of a deal right now...it's fair to assume there's a few hours of +sn in this euro run. But if you're temp forecasting in a tighter situation it could be a real problem. They might want to get that looked at.

[Dsnowx53]

That's the thing. Since it has never happened before, what are the odds of it happening during the afternoon hours on a warm wet ground? I'd be suprised if the city or even the nearby suburbs see any accumulation at all. Way too much to overcome. To me it looks like non accumulating wet snow at best. I don't see how it's gonna accumulate with temps above freezing during the daylight hours on a warm ground. Too early in the season to get excited.

Did you get snow in October 28th, 2008? That accumulated during the late morning/early afternoon.

Though as I said in an earlier post, this storm is forecast to be pretty different from that one.

[earthlight]

That's the thing. Since it has never happened before, what are the odds of it happening during the afternoon hours on a warm wet ground? I'd be suprised if the city or even the nearby suburbs see any accumulation at all. Way too much to overcome. To me it looks like non accumulating wet snow at best. I don't see how it's gonna accumulate with temps above freezing during the daylight hours on a warm ground. Too early in the season to get excited.

Sure. You have a very good point. And for the most part it's probably safer to stay on that side of the fence and be cautious given all of the variables going into this.

But, for me at least, meteorology is a predictive science..and it's important to lay out all of the options that are on the table given the setup we have going forward. And right now, despite what may have happened in 100 years of records, some accumulating snow down to the coast is certainly an option...which is interesting in it's own right.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, the more I look at it the more I see the disconnect. Wunderground maps at 72hr have the 32 f 2m temp line east of my location...while the vista maps are still west of my location. Pretty obvious differences.

Not too big of a deal right now...it's fair to assume there's a few hours of +sn in this euro run. But if you're temp forecasting in a tighter situation it could be a real problem. They might want to get that looked at.

Over the past two winters, I've felt its always better to go with the conservative route on these maps. I noticed that the WSI maps verified way more towards reality than the weenie maps. Maybe an exception or two, but usually they are better.

[earthlight]

Did you get snow in October 28th, 2008? That accumulated during the late morning/early afternoon.

Though as I said in an earlier post, this storm is forecast to be pretty different from that one.

EWR has a trace recorded then....still can't believe in all these years they have only recorded a max snowfall of 0.3" in October. Crazy.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Did you get snow in October 28th, 2008? That accumulated during the late morning/early afternoon.

Though as I said in an earlier post, this storm is forecast to be pretty different from that one.

new brunswick NJ had it rip for a little bit and it stuck to grass....shoot, if this pans out, im good up in the hills of SW CT.

[ORH_wxman]

EWR has a trace recorded then....still can't believe in all these years they have only recorded a max snowfall of 0.3" in October. Crazy.

ORH at 1,000 feet in central MA has a record October snowfall of 7.5" in 1979 and 2nd place total is 4.7"...its very hard to get snow in October. You would think we would have gotten a 10" bomb in there somewhere especially after seeing these current model progs, but its almost impossible this time of year. October is really early...a lot different from Nov 20th or something.

[Dsnowx53]

new brunswick NJ had it rip for a little bit and it stuck to grass....shoot, if this pans out, im good up in the hills of SW CT.

That event was crazy down here. We had around 2" on campus...was a freshman then, and a senior now. Imagine seeing accumulating snow in OCTOBER, TWICE, during my 4 years of college? lol

But a good point that NJWinter23 brought up to me in conversation was that in the October 28th, 2008 event, the trough became negatively tilted, and the surface low backed to the NW, so our winds were actually NNW during the deformation precip. Insane! This is a luxury we most likely will not have this time around. It's all about the dynamical cooling.

[H2Otown_WX]

ORH at 1,000 feet in central MA has a record October snowfall of 7.5" in 1979 and 2nd place total is 4.7"...its very hard to get snow in October. You would think we would have gotten a 10" bomb in there somewhere especially after seeing these current model progs, but its almost impossible this time of year. October is really early...a lot different from Nov 20th or something.

It's kind of funny that we're staring this possibility of significant snow in the face in October when the last 5 winters have not had anything in the way of meaningful snow even in November. At least down this way maybe you have had something between 05-06 and now in November.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

ORH at 1,000 feet in central MA has a record October snowfall of 7.5" in 1979 and 2nd place total is 4.7"...its very hard to get snow in October. You would think we would have gotten a 10" bomb in there somewhere especially after seeing these current model progs, but its almost impossible this time of year. October is really early...a lot different from Nov 20th or something.

how did that one in 79 look like? had to be cbb heaven.....