Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Alot more precip along the coast on the 0z GEFS. There are probably a lot of heavy hitters on the ensembles. WHOA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 The GEFS are decent, closer to the coast than 18z, but I still am not a fan of the 12 hr accumulated precip maps. They make 0.5" liquid look dramatic. The SLP is still hundreds of miles out in the Atlantic on the mean. That said there is clearly a nice spread west and a few bombs on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS ensemble mean QPF looks like ~.8 in the City with the 1" line CT NJ to Nassau LI. Those are pretty big numbers. That means some of the individuals will show at least 1.5" in a 24hr timeframe with a freezing level around 1000ft. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah the 0z GFS is definitely further south with the base of the trof. But there is an area of vorticity that slides from near Michigan to Ontario around 60-66hrs. This region remains the overall center of mid-level circulation throughout. And it seems to inhibit the structure from tilting negatively and forming a closed circulation in the mid-Atlantic. Stretching of the trof further south would make it easier to form a closed contour further south, and a semi-captured slp scenario along the coast. Yesterday's hits had the 552dm contour in northern Ga, and eventually a closed contour in the mid-Atlantic. The 0z GFS has 552dm hundreds of miles north of there. The UK says we're close, as does several ensemble members. But I'm worried that a relatively shallow trof will remain too progressive to spin up the type of low center we need. Time of year should at least help us with the thermal gradient and natural baroclinicity. This should enhance slp deepening as soon as the s/w vorticity interacts with that gradient. When you look at the overall synoptic setup and the mid and upper level height fields, it's remarkable that the system even gets heavy precipitation as far west as it does on the models. The height field is really not ideal for bringing the surface low pressure tucked in near the coast. It's pretty flat to start, actually, and that's why people have been saying over the past few days "why won't the h5 close off like it typically does" etc. The reason is that the shortwave dives southeast but then eastward as the height field de-amplifies. This has a good bit to do with the collapsing ridge over the Rockies and the kicker shortwave which is diving southeast from the Pac NW...the pattern is pretty fast and right on the heels of this system. That being said...it's really interesting to see the GFS do this tonight. The main change as we both have noted is that the vorticity rolling southeast (that crosses the international border 12 hours before the frame below) does so emphatically--to a point where it reaches the GA state border. It's also interacting with second shortwave (seen below trailing the trough base over GA/MS and to the Gulf) this run, whereas this interaction was non-existent or significantly delayed on the earlier runs on 10/26. Also, when you look at the image below...remember all of the typical upper air patterns that produced significant east coast lows. Doesn't this one seem to be a bit flat and farther north? That's because it is. It's a very, very tight window of time to get this amplified before the entire thing flattens out and the surface response escapes east by hundreds of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If that area of vorticity in the south that interacts with our shortwave has any Gulf influence (I think it's just north of the Gulf on this run), then watch out. Gulf interactions can really cause a height-rising feedback downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 EL I feel the same way as you do. Nice description and visual. The models have been converging toward an impressive but ultimately flattening and progressive s/w trof. The trof characteristics and offshore slp track seemed reasonable to me based on the wavelength and position. But some of the GEFS members and now especially the UK have raised my eyebrows. We had such a good string of luck last year that I'm consciously trying to compensate for acquired overconfidence. But maybe this really could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 0z GGEM now shows precip along the coast. It never did in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wouldn't be a threat without the 5000x5000 pixel GGEM map that is of such poor quality that I still can't make out what it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wouldn't be a threat without the 5000x5000 pixel GGEM map that is of such poor quality that I still can't make out what it's showing. Its incredible they haven't changed their graphics in over a decade. Even the "improved" color maps are still dogcrap. I remember looking at those same exact horrible black and white graphics when I was a freshmen in college in late 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Its incredible they haven't changed their graphics in over a decade. Even the "improved" color maps are still dogcrap. I remember looking at those same exact horrible black and white graphics when I was a freshmen in college in late 1999. It's a total joke...for the life of me I can not understand why they are still produced. Better yet, they are used as the main source of graphics for the model output. Seriously, here it is man. The best Canadian forecast model. Base your forecast off of our latest 2011 graphics right here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's a total joke...for the life of me I can not understand why they are still produced. Better yet, they are used as the main source of graphics for the model output. Seriously, here it is man. The best Canadian forecast model. Base your forecast off of our latest 2011 graphics right here: Even the ewall graphics which have been the same for like 7 years are so much better. And they are still fairly primitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro is also coming in more amplified than the 12z run through 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Even the ewall graphics which have been the same for like 7 years are so much better. And they are still fairly primitive. All of this said I have come to accept it for what it is---I guess it adds to the experience of model watching. It will feel different when/if they change the graphics. I'm sure I'll get over it though, as I will finally be able to comprehend what the model is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 60 hours it's a good bit more amplified up the eastern seaboard compared to the 12z run. 552 Height line is in Eastern TN but the trough base extends to N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I love the GEM graphics. I guess I'm old fashioned. I will sorely miss them when they are retired. I don't even check the color or ewall charts. But I generally ignore the QPF chart anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 All of this said I have come to accept it for what it is---I guess it adds to the experience of model watching. It will feel different when/if they change the graphics. I'm sure I'll get over it though, as I will finally be able to comprehend what the model is showing. You eventually get used to it. I was so used to getting the ETA and AVN on the cirrus site before they had the "old" typical ncep site. The ncep site before the one we all got used to was horrible and updated later than most other sources. When the "new" ncep site came on in 2001 it was really weird, but then it became a staple for 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yup, this is going to require an early season mother of god post. Deforming at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Surface low goes from just east of Ocean City MD at 66 to southwest of the 40/70BM at 72 hours...996mb. Heavy CCB precip for the entire area between 66 and 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Guess what? This just happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The Euro looks like the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 euro is impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 euro is impressive! dynamic cooling ought to be at work in that setup. it's going to take a lot to overcome the boundary layer this time of year (and day on the current model progs with the precip occurring between 18 and 00z)..but if the euro track/situation verifies it could happen. the 2m temps cool pretty dramatically from 66 to 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 just crazy man....i dunno whats going on around here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 everybody sees their first flakes on this run. Very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 dynamic cooling ought to be at work in that setup. it's going to take a lot to overcome the boundary layer this time of year (and day on the current model progs with the precip occurring between 18 and 00z)..but if the euro track/situation verifies it could happen. the 2m temps cool pretty dramatically from 66 to 72 hours. This is a setup where even people at 500 feet would see 6-8" and the city would see very little...maybe an inch or two of slop. Obviously October is a big reason for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 jesus. snow in Oct. When i was in 4th grade, we got 4 inches of snow and got off school early. i still remember that OCT day well. Total surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is a setup where some people just see some light to moderate non-sticking snows, and other people right near-by get into a deformation band and pick up several inches of snow - the snowfall distribution might be quite an odd one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is a setup where even people at 500 feet would see 6-8" and the city would see very little...maybe an inch or two of slop. Obviously October is a big reason for that. Yeah--it's a forecasting nightmare. If the Euro verifies I will be more than happy with my few inches on the grass. Interestingly, Newark has never recorded more than 0.3" of snow in October (10/20/1952). So if this all works out we will be making history. That's if the snow can stick on the tarmac which is still cooling down from the 108 F degree day three months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 0z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 typical NW trend! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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