Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's more amplified for sure...if you look at the 60 hour panel and compare it to the same valid time (66 hours) from the 18z run, the shortwave is more consolidated and the trough is deeper. So the surface reflection is closer to the coast as well. But as far as bringing it back to impacting our area significantly, it's not even close. Absolutely, I agree, I said it was improved and should clip eastern areas, still no impact since the better dynamics with the ccb are offshore which would probably mean light rain from the city east onto long island and the south coast of ct. I still think there is additional time for improvement on all models I believe the Euro gives BDR .51 of precip, tuck that ccb 30-50 miles west and some could see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I was at foxwoods for a few days and I come back to this...nice start to "winter", regardless if flakes dont fly imby yet. looking forward to tracking 'em late nite again, going through the roller coaster ride...kinda like playing poker. I must have that addictive trait in me or something. but it was funny being away then reading the thread starting from a few days ago, and saw the early season roller coaster ride begin already lol. gl in winter 2011/2012 folks! edit: are we talking about the potential for sat nite only? but are there chances at some flakes late tomorrow nite up in the hills? pretty strong front sags over the day tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nam is greatly improved, should clip eastern areas, much much improved. A "clip", or anything less than a massive raking by the comma head and major associated lift, is just rain. Most models also have the worst of whatever this is during the day. We need a major bombing low to drag down cold air associated with crashing heights to the surface, and even that might just be snow inland and away from large cities. Anything less is just maybe a colder rain outside of high hilltops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's fooking October for crissakes. Is there any chance NYC will see flurries? That's what I'd be happy with pre-Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS is coming in more amplified than the 18z run by a good margin so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Differences are becoming more dramatic with time now through 57 hours. Much more amplified height field up the eastern seaboard compared with the 18z run. Trough as a whole is deeper and the energy is more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Much closer to the coast at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Its fun to watch the gfs cave, I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Laughably close at 66 hours. The upper air depiction was ridiculously improved from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Laughably close at 66 hours. The upper air depiction was ridiculously improved from the 18z run. You're telling me. Much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Still some work to be done, Euro is big tonight, much can happen with these short wavelengths, but have to be happy with the latest developments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Per the storm vista algorithms the GFS has light amounts of frozen QPF ending Sunday morning from NYC on westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Here's the 12z run valid at the same time as the image I posted above, for comparisons sake. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVNEAST_0z/f66.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 There are pretty impressive Omega values off the coast, as well. I'm liking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 look ike a good shift west to me, .50 QPF now into NYC and Long Island. I believe the 12z GFS had around .10 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 00Z UKMET has 1.00" of rain over NYC-LI for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Fwiw 0z Nogaps shifted west from the 12z run, where it was a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 00Z UKMET has 1.00" of rain over NYC-LI for Saturday. Well at least it's a hit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well at least it's a hit!! The fact that the UKMET has been the most consistent with this storm is quite unusual. Also the fact that it is further northwest than any model 72 hours out is usually a sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 00Z UKMET MSLP 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ^^^^ Really impressive. 995 low near the benchmark. This is from Will from the SNE thread. This model doesn't want to back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The big coastal gale solutions on the Euro from a few days ago and yesterday's JMA dropped the base of the trof into the deep south, with the vortmax down in Ga and Tn. This allowed the slp to bomb sooner and take a northeasterly path close to the coast. In all recent modeling the trof structure is much further north (take a look at the 72hr GFS at 300mb) Since the slp won't really bomb and tuck in close to the mid-level low until their centers are roughly at the same latitude, this probably won't happen until the storm is at or beyond Nova Scotia. A weaker, further north s/w trof means the slp will slide eastward near our latitude (before hooking ne and n eventually). The only other way for a bigger impact is if the s/w is much deeper with very high vorticity. A few of the ensembles actually pull this off, allowing for a rapid slp development. The trailing kicker s/w might ultimately be the most impressive in the sequence. It's a shame they are relatively close together, and/or that we might not get the strongest s/w at the moment when it could be utilized by a polar airmass and moisture in the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The big coastal gale solutions on the Euro from a few days ago and yesterday's JMA dropped the base of the trof into the deep south, with the vortmax down in Ga and Tn. This allowed the slp to bomb sooner and take a northeasterly path close to the coast. In all recent modeling the trof structure is much further north (take a look at the 72hr GFS at 300mb) Since the slp won't really bomb and tuck in close to the mid-level low until their centers are roughly at the same latitude, this probably won't happen until the storm is at or beyond Nova Scotia. A weaker, further north s/w trof means the slp will slide eastward near our latitude (before hooking ne and n eventually). The only other way for a bigger impact is if the s/w is much deeper with very high vorticity. A few of the ensembles actually pull this off, allowing for a rapid slp development. The trailing kicker s/w might ultimately be the most impressive in the sequence. It's a shame they are relatively close together, and/or that we might not get the strongest s/w at the moment when it could be utilized by a polar airmass and moisture in the SE US. I think it's a given that there is going to be rapid SLP development given the very strong westward tilt with height, but of course, we need the pattern to start off more amplified to begin with so that this happens at a more favorable longitude. I think the GFS took a step in the right direction, though there still certainly is a general "broad" look. The closed 540dam contour SW of Greenland could encourage a "slower" pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 ^ Posting from my iPhone but the GFS digs the base of the trough into N GA on the 00z run if I remember correctly. Wasn't doing so on 6, 12 or 18z. Mid level height field buckles up the east coast in response. The 00z run was a hair away from showing a complete weenie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Plus, the October 28th, 2008 event had a closed 540dam contour over our area: our heights in NJ were <540dam. We don't have that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The 0z UK and GFS are a very close match at 300mb and 500mb per a Plymouth State chart overlay. They also match well at the surface at 60hrs. That makes it all the more interesting how much further west the UK has the surface low position at 72hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ^ Posting from my iPhone but the GFS digs the base of the trough into N GA on the 00z run if I remember correctly. Wasn't doing so on 6, 12 or 18z. Mid level height field buckles up the east coast in response. The 00z run was a hair away from showing a complete weenie solution. The 0z GFS dug the base of the trough about 200 miles further south than the 18z GFS did. It was certainly a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Alot more precip along the coast on the 0z GEFS. There are probably a lot of heavy hitters on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ^ Posting from my iPhone but the GFS digs the base of the trough into N GA on the 00z run if I remember correctly. Wasn't doing so on 6, 12 or 18z. Yeah the 0z GFS is definitely further south with the base of the trof. But there is an area of vorticity that slides from near Michigan to Ontario around 60-66hrs. This region remains the overall center of mid-level circulation throughout. And it seems to inhibit the structure from tilting negatively and forming a closed circulation in the mid-Atlantic. Stretching of the trof further south would make it easier to form a closed contour further south, and a semi-captured slp scenario along the coast. Yesterday's hits had the 552dm contour in northern Ga, and eventually a closed contour in the mid-Atlantic. The 0z GFS has 552dm hundreds of miles north of there. The UK says we're close, as does several ensemble members. But I'm worried that a relatively shallow trof will remain too progressive to spin up the type of low center we need. Time of year should at least help us with the thermal gradient and natural baroclinicity. This should enhance slp deepening as soon as the s/w vorticity interacts with that gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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