TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 And the end of October so it can't be cold in October, especially october 31st? We have seen colder surface temps this time of year with no problem, its just we have a moidifed polar airmass. Even still, it would be pretty damn close if we had the right system come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 hardly. but the wish casting drowns out the voices of reason very easily. as far as I can tell all people have done is talk about what models are showing and what would could happen or what would need to happen. No one has made any calls for anything and the analysis of what the models are showing has been pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 hardly. but the wish casting drowns out the voices of reason very easily. Im just trying to be realistic. I know the models are showing the potential is there. I also feel like we may see this a little closer to the coast but most of the event being during the day will make it difficult. A few flakes not out of the question north and west of city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Well North not really west, either way ever so slightly a better solution, but I think its way too little way too late. We need a low bombing its way down through the 990s off Cape May travelling NE, not a warm advection strip of moderate precip from a slowly developing 1000s low. That will be rain everywhere, guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Im just trying to be realistic. I know the models are showing the potential is there. I also feel like we may see this a little closer to the coast but most of the event being during the day will make it difficult. A few flakes not out of the question north and west of city. I agree with you 100%, I am just saying the right conditions, falling at night, great dynamics, would make this very interesting. It could happen, but that doesn't mean it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I agree with you 100%, I am just saying the right conditions, falling at night, great dynamics, would make this very interesting. It could happen, but that doesn't mean it will. No need to get upset. I would love to see some wild weather this weekend like the best of them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 We need a low bombing its way down through the 990s off Cape May travelling NE, not a warm advection strip of moderate precip from a slowly developing 1000s low. That will be rain everywhere, guaranteed. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 We need a low bombing its way down through the 990s off Cape May travelling NE, not a warm advection strip of moderate precip from a slowly developing 1000s low. That will be rain everywhere, guaranteed. exactly, and this pattern does not support that type of tucked in bomb, despite what the Euro was showing a few runs ago. If we had a noreaster bombing into the 980s just east of Long Island with -4 to -6 850s overhead, we would snow down to the coast. That is not happening in this setup. We will likely just see some light rain with temps in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 exactly, and this pattern does not support that type of tucked in bomb, despite what the Euro was showing a few runs ago. If we had a noreaster bombing into the 980s just east of Long Island with -4 to -6 850s overhead, we would snow down to the coast. That is not happening in this setup. We will likely just see some light rain with temps in the 40s. I would disagree. I think this is about as good of a setup as you could ask for, especially by October standards. I think this is a situation where we could have a tucked in bomb, the only problem is that it is a delicate setup. For this reason many models show a near miss and it would take everything lining up correctly to result in a snowier solution. The timing will be crucial and if we can get the shortwave to really dig and the trough to go negative, then maybe we can tug this back west, especially if the H5 closes off. So I guess what I am saying is that I disagree with your assertion that this pattern does not support such a scenario. I think the model solutions right now are just a product of the way the features all interacting together, and that the solution from the EURO for 3 runs in a row is definitely viable. The patterns features are favorable, especially the strong confluence and blocking. If anything the progressiveness might kill this one. I still think this threat deserves to be monitored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 exactly, and this pattern does not support that type of tucked in bomb, despite what the Euro was showing a few runs ago. If we had a noreaster bombing into the 980s just east of Long Island with -4 to -6 850s overhead, we would snow down to the coast. That is not happening in this setup. We will likely just see some light rain with temps in the 40s. coming from the guy who predicts 1-3 inches 2 hours before a blizzard is upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 No need to get upset. I would love to see some wild weather this weekend like the best of them! so not upset, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 JB says 1-3 Bos-Wilmington with lollies to 5....no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Red flag when most of the ensembles are more amped up than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 just opened up one of the NAM 500mb images from the 1/11/11 storm and I was amazaed to see it had a 540 block over davis strait, the same strength its showing at the end of its 18z run today. Now its no where near as expansive, but it just goes to show how there is a nice block up there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 JB says 1-3 Bos-Wilmington with lollies to 5....no joke. I kept reading it over to see if he was saying 1-3 flakes or 1-3"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 JB says 1-3 Bos-Wilmington with lollies to 5....no joke. His forecast is once again borderline irresponsible, his calls the last three years have been horrific, he is a sell out to the hype machine, any respect I had for him in regards to long term pattern recognition is gone. Really Wilmington Del?? Its beyond awful and if I were a fellow Met I would be pissed for making a laughing stock of the profession. Its ****ing ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 His forecast is once again borderline irresponsible, his calls the last three years have been horrific, he is a sell out to the hype machine, any respect I had for him in regards to long term pattern recognition is gone. Really Wilmington Del?? Its beyond awful and if I were a fellow Met I would be pissed for making a laughing stock of the profession. Its ****ing ridiculous. Agree..although if he's right you owe him an apology....LOL. Love your avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is going to be a fun winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Fwiw, 21z sref is way ots with the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is going to be a fun winter. Isn't it always? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Fwiw, 21z sref is way ots with the weekend storm. The mean 12 hr precipitation from the 15 and 21z SREF are nearly identical...so no major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The mean 12 hr precipitation from the 15 and 21z SREF are nearly identical...so no major changes. lets shut this thread down and get a new one started, try to change the tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 lets shut this thread down and get a new one started, try to change the tide. it's october man. if you feel the need, go do a snow dance or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 it's october man. if you feel the need, go do a snow dance or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 it's october man. if you feel the need, go do a snow dance or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM looks like a complete miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM looks like a complete miss Nam is greatly improved, should clip eastern areas, much much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nam is greatly improved, should clip eastern areas, much much improved. No not at all, look at H5. The vorts are much further apart....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 No not at all, look at H5. The vorts are much further apart....... It's more amplified for sure...if you look at the 60 hour panel and compare it to the same valid time (66 hours) from the 18z run, the shortwave is more consolidated and the trough is deeper. So the surface reflection is closer to the coast as well. But as far as bringing it back to impacting our area significantly, it's not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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