TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 metfan broke NCEP refreshing the 15z srefs too many times. THey are updating on ewall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Damn, those ARW's are WOUND up. Everything else not much to speak of.(consistantly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Damn, those ARW's are WOUND up. Everything else not much to speak of.(consistantly) 84 hr mslp: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F26%2F2011+15UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+MEANSPRD&pname=mslp&pdesc=&model=SREF&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 84 hr mslp: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Yea, those ARWs skew the mean west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Although things look to be playing out similar to winter when models slowly catch on to amplification, I still think the upper air pattern and ampliciation is just a bit flat. When looking at the mid level height field on the models, it's just not quite there in terms of what you want to see if you're hoping to tuck a strong low pressure in near the coast. Also, when comparing the 12z GFS to the 00z GFS during the period of the best height falls and trough amplification, the 00z run was actually much more robust. The ensembles being closer to the coast offer some hope. agreed. Just taking a step back, its just not there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Euro ens are west, just se of the BM and a hair west of the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 agreed. Just taking a step back, its just not there right now. Yeah, that's what I'm trying to get at. Sometimes it is hard to pump the brakes for a second on the whole roller coaster of events that occur prior to a potential storm. With the ever expanding plethora of information we can now get our hands on, it's really important to put everything in perspective. For one, it's not winter. It's not even close. The pattern is very (and I repeat, very) favorable for the calendar date. But that doesn't mean it's not fragile. This is not the ticking time bomb type pattern(s) we saw last winter. Those patterns, it was like each shortwave was a flame lit in a room soaked with gasoline. It was bound to happen. Here, we need a bunch of things to go right to get the storm up the coast -- and then a bunch of things to go right to get frozen precip -- and then a bunch of things to go right to get it to the surface and sticking. Second, if this storm doesn't work out, who cares? The investment in this storm should be as low as it can possibly be. It's October 26th, really, this is equivalent to a spring training game. Don't get me wrong, I'd be stoked if we saw flakes, but if not you shrug your shoulders and move on. Finally, I hope people use this perspective on a more broad scale through the winter. I already saw people saying "this block sucks, it's not impressive". Guess what? it's fine. Positive height anomalies over the Davis straight is a good thing during the cold season. We aren't going to get blocks like last year very often--maybe not for a while. Hell, we aren't going to get storms like last year very often. People wouldve killed for a decent davis straight positive anomaly in 2006-2009. So I hope during the winter we remember this. In a fragile pattern on Oct 26, hopefully people don't get too pissed if it doesn't work out. We have 5 long months ahead of us -- with much more dramatics and more favorable setups than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Euro ens are west, just se of the BM and a hair west of the operational tha't s a good thing. Would love to see spaghettis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The 18z NAM is not going to get us there for storm #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The 18z NAM is not going to get us there for storm #2. not even close, much flatter than 12z and more like the old ETA, not that I put much stock in what this model says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 FWIW BigJoeBastardi Ne weekend snow I like 1-3 inches, locally 5 - 75 miles either side of line Wilmington Delaware to Boston Mass http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The 12z Ukie is perfect, as mentioned. Check out hour 72 on ewall. http://www.meteo.psu...op.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The 12z Ukie is perfect, as mentioned. Check out hour 72 on ewall. http://www.meteo.psu...op.html#picture Its the only model that has that solution or thereabout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Its the only model that has that solution or thereabout. Actually the ECM is pretty much in agreement with the UK thru 72 hours and it ends up slightly east of the UK at 96 hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 quite a few people here and on other forums have mentioned that its not possible to have snow in the mid atlantic this time of year well this is what happened Nov 11, 1987 - only 13 days later then the event coming up and further south - so anything is possible - and in this year of extremes even more so http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/11/on_this_veterans_day_in_1987.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 We need another earth quake. It was good luck before Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Actually the ECM is pretty much in agreement with the UK thru 72 hours and it ends up slightly east of the UK at 96 hrs.... But it jogs east quite a bit and anything east won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 If you look at the H5 charts, the northern stream energy comes ashore around 18z-0z tonight while the southern energy is already over the SW. We should have a good read in the next few runs. About the UKMET, it looks like it might cut a little to close for comfort, vort is really amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 WRT an earthquake-hurricane combo is has happened before but not with snow so it wont help us We need another earth quake. It was good luck before Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 speaking of flat, take a look at the 18z gfs. Northern stream unable to dig and it kills that southern vort again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Maybe a late rally here around 60 hours, lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Much more energy is diving down the backside of the trough out of Canada on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 JMA looks exactly like the Ukie and so do many of the GFS and Euro ensemble members Its the only model that has that solution or thereabout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It looks like the GFS shifted a smidge to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 LOL at the next Vort coming down the pike, too bad heights are really high and what little cold air we had is gone. That is Miller B all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It looks like the GFS shifted a smidge to the west. Well North not really west, either way ever so slightly a better solution, but I think its way too little way too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 surface temps on the gfs at 78 hours when its lightly raining are 6C. Ouch. That's what you get with no dynamics to cool the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 surface temps on the gfs at 78 hours when its lightly raining are 6C. Ouch. That's what you get with no dynamics to cool the column. And the end of October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 And the end of October Lol you are the only voice of reason in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Lol you are the only voice of reason in this thread hardly. but the wish casting drowns out the voices of reason very easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.