Edge Weather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yes, too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 well... a lot of the QPF is offshore, but it looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Euro is still well east of where we want it. With no closed 500 the surface low slips east of the BM which means no CCB and light to moderate rain with whatever falls. The trough doesn't go negative enough to push to low further up the coast. It has to be perfect or else no one has a prayer for this storm. The CCB has to develop properly and overhead, with strong lift and dynamics to transport cold air down. Anything less is just rain everywhere but on some hilltops. 50 or 75 miles is very easy to bridge at this range though. The trend from 12z overall looks positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I was a bit surprised about the propogation of the 500 mb pattern.. It actually looked rather sharp and then the trof sort of just propogated east, which in turn pushed the development and everything else east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yes, it looked pretty good. Oh well. I was a bit surprised about the propogation of the 500 mb pattern.. It actually looked rather sharp and then the trof sort of just propogated east, which in turn pushed the development and everything else east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I was a bit surprised about the propogation of the 500 mb pattern.. It actually looked rather sharp and then the trof sort of just propogated east, which in turn pushed the development and everything else east. H5 over the great leaks opened up, low slips east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 H5 over the great leaks opened up, low slips east. The shortwave in question never closes off, takes on a nice negative tilt though before it shoots ene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The shortwave in question never closes off, takes on a nice negative tilt though before it shoots ene yes, the players are all there, like always, its the finer details. Better sampling tonight and tomorrow will help. This one isn't over yet to see our first flakes and accumulations to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 La Nina patterns make the models go crazy. December 26-27, 2010 made us forget the heartbreak of earlier that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 We need to watch the kicker over the PAC NW very carefully. It rolls over the ridge which is built near the Rockies and effectively de-amplifies the height field as it dives south east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Pretty pumped after the 12z suite. Keeping expectations realistic as to the time of year, we have plenty of time 84 hours out to see the models show more favorable solutions, especially given what the gfs ensembles did and how close the euro is to having a more explosive system closer to the coast. Would like to see the Ukmet at 84 hours, stupid model output! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 We need to watch the kicker over the PAC NW very carefully. It rolls over the ridge which is built near the Rockies and effectively de-amplifies the height field as it dives south east. It will also help to have that PV lift north of NNE and allow the height field to buckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 It will also help to have that PV lift north of NNE and allow the height field to buckle. Yeah the earlier runs of the Euro actually had a very favorable buckle/ridge building in as the trough amplified over the Central US and the PV lifted north. We have lost that a bit in the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 JMA is still a major hit for the entire east coast! 1+ qpf for entire area very similar to yesterday's Run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It will also help to have that PV lift north of NNE and allow the height field to buckle. we have seen the models hold onto those sub-pv's too long over NNE. Given how the block is breaking down and isn't overly strong, no reason it can't lift out a little sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Some of the GFS ensemble members are running with the previous Euro solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 the ukmet is a setup for an explosive storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 the ukmet is a setup for an explosive storm so are the euro and gfs, really, they are just a tiny bit disjointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The shortwave in question never closes off, takes on a nice negative tilt though before it shoots ene this storm is all about getting the upper system to close off in time to nail us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 the ukmet is a setup for an explosive storm it really is pretty. Sadly, we are left to guess what could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Just like the JMA is showing! the ukmet is a setup for an explosive storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 so are the euro and gfs, really, they are just a tiny bit disjointed. as I said earlier, we are 4th and inches. Considering the amount of time we have left, plenty of reason to stay interested in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Hello all! First time logging in for the season!! Can't believe we are talking snow already and we're still in October!! ha ha ha Crazy!! But love it! We're off to a great start for the 2011/2012 winter season!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 as I said earlier, we are 4th and inches. Considering the amount of time we have left, plenty of reason to stay interested in this one. The 12z Thursday runs should get us close to the 60 hr window for the low approaching our latitude along with better sampling of both streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Just for some entertainment before 15z srefs and 18z suite comes out, here is the JMA 500mb from 12z run today. This model's scores improve dramatically inside of three days so take it fwiw. Very ukie like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The 12z Thursday runs should get us close to the 60 hr window for the low approaching our latitude along with better sampling of both streams. yea, the disturbances associated with it are still well offshore.. this is a pretty progressive pattern too. We've all seen how poorly some of the models have handled energy coming into the Pacific NW and southern Canada.. Often times, the disturbances are stronger than originally progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 yea, the disturbances associated with it are still well offshore.. this is a pretty progressive pattern too. We've all seen how poorly some of the models have handled energy coming into the Pacific NW and southern Canada.. Often times, the disturbances are stronger than originally progged The Nina progressivism of the flow is adding all the more chaos as well to make it almost impossible to make educated long term guesses here. Obviously 12/26/10 was dead for a couple of days before magically being resurrected 2 days prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I just saw the Ukie on Wright-Weather's pay site. It looks exactly like the JMA run from what I can tell. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Although things look to be playing out similar to winter when models slowly catch on to amplification, I still think the upper air pattern and ampliciation is just a bit flat. When looking at the mid level height field on the models, it's just not quite there in terms of what you want to see if you're hoping to tuck a strong low pressure in near the coast. Also, when comparing the 12z GFS to the 00z GFS during the period of the best height falls and trough amplification, the 00z run was actually much more robust. The ensembles being closer to the coast offer some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Although things look to be playing out similar to winter when models slowly catch on to amplification, I still think the upper air pattern and ampliciation is just a bit flat. When looking at the mid level height field on the models, it's just not quite there in terms of what you want to see if you're hoping to tuck a strong low pressure in near the coast. Also, when comparing the 12z GFS to the 00z GFS during the period of the best height falls and trough amplification, the 00z run was actually much more robust. The ensembles being closer to the coast offer some hope. yea.. a closed off system at 500 mb would be the ultimate dream.. that seems to be far off, at least at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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