LocoAko Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 we'll find out, assuming the NAM is even close to being right, and that's a big if. Well yeah, I wasn't trying to imply it won't snow with this event... just that with the NAM forecast given, you can't just pull the nucleation out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Well yeah, I wasn't trying to imply it won't snow with this event... just that with the NAM forecast given, you can't just pull the nucleation out of nowhere. agreed, you are correct, and its awesome to get these things posted in here so we can all learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 agreed, you are correct, and its awesome to get these things posted in here so we can all learn. unfortunately the 6Z GFS sounding for the same forecast time period shows a similar picture.. but that could end being way off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 unfortunately the 6Z GFS sounding for the same forecast time period shows a similar picture.. but that could end being way off as well. and we don't know what happens between 33 and 36, the atmospere doesn't work in three hour increments, its in constant flux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 FWIW NOAA forecast for Huntington, NY, Which is northwest suffolk Saturday Night: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 IMHO, GFS is improved once again. Appears it agrees that Rina dies out well south of Florida and also is much sharper with the northern stream energy. The bigger unknown is what comes down rockies after the first southern vort. This is not well sampled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 12z GFS really made some improvements in the southern and northern stream. It's just a hair or two off from phasing a little sooner. Lots of time on this one but this was the best GFS run yet. Again, sampling of the second southern vort could really be a wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 A closer track and heavier precip would let the temps dewpoint down Saturday evening and allow some wet flakes to mix in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 A closer track and heavier precip would let the temps dewpoint down Saturday evening and allow some wet flakes to mix in. this only works with a closer track and strong system if you want to see real flakes, otherwise its light rain or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 UKIE 500 mb 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Some more UKIE maps with color 72 hours. SLP, thicknesses, and and 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 this only works with a closer track and strong system if you want to see real flakes, otherwise its light rain or nothing. Yeah, a closer track with a coastal trough extending NW from the low would help to focus some heavier precip near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Some more UKIE maps with color 72 hours. SLP, thicknesses, and and 500mb Further west and digging more than the GFS at same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Further west and digging more than the GFS at same time frame. it's def. more amplified and the surface reflection is closer to the coast, so that is good. It could still slip east from there but the gfs wasn't far off so this is a good sign. It's still a pipe dream, but fun to track something early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 it's def. more amplified and the surface reflection is closer to the coast, so that is good. It could still slip east from there but the gfs wasn't far off so this is a good sign. It's still a pipe dream, but fun to track something early in the season. It could slip east, but that map screams closer to the coast than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It could slip east, but that map screams closer to the coast than the GFS. AGREE strongly. Much better phase there, questions is, is it negative enough to get the SLP up the coast. On that frame, it looks to be a yard or two short. 4th and inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 UKIE 500 mb 72 hours Here is the GFS at the same time period: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F26%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=072&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Here is the GFS at the same time period: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M I'm in total agreement my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I'm in total agreement my friend. How does it compare to the 0z 500 map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Check out the 12z GFS ensembles: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12084.gif Must be some souped up members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Wow Check out the 12z GFS ensembles: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12084.gif Must be some souped up members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Here is the 0z run for comparison: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12096.gif 12z much moire amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 On the iPhone the weather has snow in NYC sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 12z ggem is a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 UKMET does not offer the in between hours but here it is at 72 & then 96 hrs It would appear it comes right up the coast? No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Here is the 0z run for comparison: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12096.gif 12z much moire amped. That is really impressive. To see how big of a step this was for the GEFS look at the dark green (.25-.5"). On the 0z it was on the Jersey Shore. On the 12z it stretches into almost all of C PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 1319649697[/url]' post='1061448']That is really impressive. To see how big of a step this was for the GEFS look at the dark green (.25-.5"). On the 0z it was offshore. On the 12z it stretches into almost all of C PA. The low is still way east. Just shows that there are some really west individual members. Ewall will have them soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The low is still way east. Just shows that there are some really west individual members. Ewall will have them soon. Agree. There must be some more westerly hitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 UKMET does not offer the in between hours but here it is at 72 & then 96 hrs It would appear it comes right up the coast? No? Well you can't know for sure because it could take different paths along the way. Typically big coastal storms tug in and the fade east. But sometimes storms initially drift northeastward before wrapping up in the Maritimes - thus taking a wide turn. But in this case, based on 500mb, I think the slp takes a fairly direct, slightly offshore track. But definitely close enough for coastal precipitation. Notice the proximity of the slp to Nova Scotia at 96hrs on the UK. And it's quite strong at that point. That indicates a mature upper level system instead of the weaker, open wave shown on the GFS - and even Euro. The GFS at the same time is hundreds of miles southeast with the center and much weaker. The UK is within the envelope of solutions offered by the GFS, Euro, Nogaps and their ensembles, including previous runs. Yesterday's Euro runs still offer possible solutions even though they are partly preempted by more recent runs. So it seems prudent to sum up the situation as a likely coastal storm development - probably modest intensity and offshore, but low chance of significant gale with coastal impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The low is still way east. Just shows that there are some really west individual members. Ewall will have them soon. The Low P. on the GEFS did shift northwest somewhat by about 25-50 miles, if you compare 0z and 12z, but yes, the major shift west in precip was likely due to some amped up members. Should be interesting to see when E Wall comes out with the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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