nzucker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Will, 1-3" seems like a conservative call for Rindge/Monadnocks given that most models print out close to 1" QPF, with the majority falling as snow here. Are you expecting the storm to be warmer like the 12z NAM where some of the initial overrunning is lost to rain, or are you just doubting the intensity of the precipitation without a closed H7/H85 low for the entirely of the storm? The 12z NAM did close off the 850mb vort off the coast of New England, so maybe it's on to something about more of a CCB with moisture wrapping back into the cold air? I was talking about this in my meteorology workshop, kids are very excited. I said 2-4" would be a decent guess for campus...we're often a little colder than downtown Rindge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 In model progged storms ...my philosophy is always "the bird in hand is better than two in the bush" LOL Even if the bird in hand is a chicakdee and the ones in the bush are fat wild turkeys. I concentrate on my short range chances and then worry about the dream storm in the medium range +. I said yesterday, I'd rather have my eggs in storm 1's basket, The Euro pretty much by itself with storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Should we start another thread for Connecticut school closings? and power outages, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Canadian ptype algorithm... 21z Thu 00z 03z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 In model progged storms ...my philosophy is always "the bird in hand is better than two in the bush" LOL Even if the bird in hand is a chicakdee and the ones in the bush are fat wild turkeys. I concentrate on my short range chances and then worry about the dream storm in the medium range +. Thats a good philosphy, Mine is don't look past the end of your nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Thats a good philosphy, Mine is don't look past the end of your nose. Mine is whatever model shows the most snow is the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Canadian ptype algorithm... 21z Thu 00z 03z 06z I'm liking that map even for here in Lowell. But I'm thinking I'll end up with 2-4" in my caBIN UP IN tHORNTON, nh @ 1100' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 At what time does the 12z Euro come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Will, 1-3" seems like a conservative call for Rindge/Monadnocks given that most models print out close to 1" QPF, with the majority falling as snow here. Are you expecting the storm to be warmer like the 12z NAM where some of the initial overrunning is lost to rain, or are you just doubting the intensity of the precipitation without a closed H7/H85 low for the entirely of the storm? The 12z NAM did close off the 850mb vort off the coast of New England, so maybe it's on to something about more of a CCB with moisture wrapping back into the cold air? I was talking about this in my meteorology workshop, kids are very excited. I said 2-4" would be a decent guess for campus...we're often a little colder than downtown Rindge. Well I did say some lollies to 4"+...your area would be a good spot for that. Not all of the Monadnocks are as high as you near 1300 feet. Areas in the 900-1200 feet range will obviously not do quite as well. If we see this strong frontogenesis in the cold column continue over the next 2 model runs, then I'd probably go a little more bullish across the board for the northern hills. But when its still 60 hours out, you have to remain a bit conservative because there's a lot of things that can go wrong...33F non-sticking snow and wasting qpf on cold rain are just a couple of those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 At what time does the 12z Euro come out? I believe around 2-2:30ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 At what time does the 12z Euro come out? 30 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 around 2 At what time does the 12z Euro come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 At what time does the 12z Euro come out? around 1:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm surprised at how cold the GFS ensembles are for Thu night. Every single one is colder than the OP run at 60 hours. That's certainly some good news for getting better accumulations across most areas in SNE/CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It kinda feels good not to have that toaster feeling for the 12z euro cause its only October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hey Will can you post that link for the Canadian ptype maps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm surprised at how cold the GFS ensembles are for Thu night. Every single one is colder than the OP run at 60 hours. That's certainly some good news for getting better accumulations across most areas in SNE/CNE. Would you consider the Thursday event rare for date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hey Will can you post that link for the Canadian ptype maps?? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm surprised at how cold the GFS ensembles are for Thu night. Every single one is colder than the OP run at 60 hours. That's certainly some good news for getting better accumulations across most areas in SNE/CNE. I was just looking at those. The ensembles seemed right along the BM which may explain it, but that would be an awesome track for you...basically along the 40th parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I was just looking at those. The ensembles seemed right along the BM which may explain it, but that would be an awesome track for you...basically along the 40th parallel. Man up and call for accumulating snow down to Central CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm surprised at how cold the GFS ensembles are for Thu night. Every single one is colder than the OP run at 60 hours. That's certainly some good news for getting better accumulations across most areas in SNE/CNE. Yeah 6z was the same deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Thank you. I lost a few links and that was one of them. I was trying to remember the URL and forgot is was "collaboration" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro time.. Oh how I don't miss Litchfields torch posts at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The GFS ensemble members are a little more jazzed up for the Saturday event but still way south and east of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Now is definitely one of those times I wish I didn't live in a damn valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Alright.. heading to the basement now.. be back in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 If the euro screws us im gonna pull the plug on the bow power station and put all u in the dark haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Will, 1-3" seems like a conservative call for Rindge/Monadnocks given that most models print out close to 1" QPF, with the majority falling as snow here. Are you expecting the storm to be warmer like the 12z NAM where some of the initial overrunning is lost to rain, or are you just doubting the intensity of the precipitation without a closed H7/H85 low for the entirely of the storm? The 12z NAM did close off the 850mb vort off the coast of New England, so maybe it's on to something about more of a CCB with moisture wrapping back into the cold air? I was talking about this in my meteorology workshop, kids are very excited. I said 2-4" would be a decent guess for campus...we're often a little colder than downtown Rindge. I'm busting my assistant principal about it, telling her I might be late coming into work, etc... lol You might be right about 2-4" there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Come on... euro! Big Money, no Whammies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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