Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Geezus perfect position by the GFS at this timeframe, Euro comes in strong again, look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Kev is going to go in the garage and pull the gfs out of the trash can when he sees the weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 away on biz, back tomorrow nite Thanks, I got to get his number, had it and lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Kev is going to go in the garage and pull the gfs out of the trash can when he sees the weekend storm This is reminding me of last year, Deja LaEpic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Look at that 90-110 kt MLJ at 500mb! The nose of that plows right into portions of CT/MA as the colder air starts to advect in and there is still a decent plume of moisture/QPF over us. That could really help to enhance lift/upward vertical motion...some places are going to rip really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 This is reminding me of last year, Deja LaEpic? Definitly would be for October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Does vertical shear (0-6km shear) play as much importance in winter storms as it does in convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 These colder solutions will probably let at least parts of the CP get some snow on the tail end that has a chance to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Someone update me really quickly on how this looks for mby....out of wx shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Definitly would be for October Wow this beats 75 and boring, weather interest wise. Euro , see ya in the AM BOYS and GIRLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Someone update me really quickly on how this looks for mby....out of wx shape Get back in shape dude. Probably ending as a burst of snow there...potentially some accumulation...maybe an inch perhaps? It could just be a coating too. It will all depend on how heavy it comes down and how well we advect LL cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Someone update me really quickly on how this looks for mby....out of wx shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 In your hiny-hine-hine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 These colder solutions will probably let at least parts of the CP get some snow on the tail end that has a chance to accumulate. Yeah I'm getting a little more enthusiastic of seeing some flakes or a brief total 34F flip here. If the NAM or GFS worked out..I think it would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It even looks like it wants to bring rinas remnants north..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yeah I'm getting a little more enthusiastic of seeing some flakes or a brief total 34F flip here. If the NAM or GFS worked out..I think it would happen. There's still def a possibility of this of that band cranks at the end along Rt 2 into E MA and the dryslot is up into CT as temps cool: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Doesn't the placement of the sfc low seem a little bit odd? Perhaps it's just b/c of the resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 There's still def a possibility of this of that band cranks at the end along Rt 2 into E MA and the dryslot is up into CT as temps cool: Is it bad that I want that to happen?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Is it bad that I want that to happen?? Not really, He already knows you hate him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Is it bad that I want that to happen?? fu**, no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Is it bad that I want that to happen?? I'm giving it about a 50/50 shot that Ray actually gets more than Kevin...but the recent 00z trend probably helps Kevin out a bit...but it doesn't really hurt Ray either. That band at the end could give Ray a quick inch or maybe slightly more..and later in the game too when diabatics will help him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I'm giving it about a 50/50 shot that Ray actually gets more than Kevin...but the recent 00z trend probably helps Kevin out a bit...but it doesn't really hurt Ray either. That band at the end could give Ray a quick inch or maybe slightly more..and later in the game too when diabatics will help him. He's got latitude and the mechanisms for that band on his side. His negative... obviously elevation is the biggest, but I'd say he has some factors in his favor. I still think Kevin needs to fear the DS, but like you said...the 00z runs helped him out. Until the euro has a say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Doesn't the placement of the sfc low seem a little bit odd? Perhaps it's just b/c of the resolution. A sfc low doesn't get placed into position. Air movies up and down and horizontally. Air pressure at a particular location is a function of the volume and density of the air above that point. The model calculates this value at all positions based on its programmed equations that describe atmospheric and planetary motion (such as the movement of air based on thermal gradients). A low center isn't a thing or an entity, it's just the lowest value that the model calculates. So the low center has to be in the right spot based on the model physics. But what the position of the upper level and surface features do suggest to me is that a very slight improvement in the progged mid/upper levels could have a significant effect on the surface. Maybe that's why it looks odd - because the slp could so easily be closer to the coast. We saw this a lot last year in the days before major coastal storms. The GFS evolution is very close to a major east coast low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 He's got latitude and the mechanisms for that band on his side. His negative... obviously elevation is the biggest, but I'd say he has some factors in his favor. I still think Kevin needs to fear the DS, but like you said...the 00z runs helped him out. Until the euro has a say. I think I'm going to have to up my Vegas odds here of 0.7" that Ekster set last night...probably over/under now is 1.5"...but I'm still nervous about low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 the weekend looks so much more interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 A sfc low doesn't get placed into position. Air movies up and down and horizontally. Air pressure at a particular location is a function of the volume and density of the air above that point. The model calculates this value at all positions based on its programmed equations that describe atmospheric and planetary motion (such as the movement of air based on thermal gradients). A low center isn't a thing or an entity, it's just the lowest value that the model calculates. So the low center has to be in the right spot based on the model physics. But what the position of the upper level and surface features do suggest to me is that a very slight improvement in the progged mid/upper levels could have a significant effect on the surface. Maybe that's why it looks odd - because the slp could so easily be closer to the coast. We saw this a lot last year in the days before major coastal storms. The GFS evolution is very close to a major east coast low. Thanks for the clarification! As to your second paragraph this is exactly what I was talking about. Unfortunately all I posted was the SLP map and didn't explain why I thought it was odd but looking at the mid and upper level features I thought the low should be tucked in a bit more than what was shown, or at least it should be developing a bit closer to the coast. I still have alot to learn and understand this stuff though so I figured I asked...I say this every year and never get to it but I would really like to start learning how to actually dissect models and all the features and such and know what looks correct and what doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I think I'm going to have to up my Vegas odds here of 0.7" that Ekster set last night...probably over/under now is 1.5"...but I'm still nervous about low level cold. Yeah I'd probably go for that without seeing the euro. As long as the precip rates are high, seems reasonable. I guess my fear is that it is more or a banded and disorganized last gasp...but I don't really see it like that., especially given that narrow area of strong lift and good s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yeah I'd probably go for that without seeing the euro. As long as the precip rates are high, seems reasonable. I guess my fear is that it is more or a banded and disorganized last gasp...but I don't really see it like that., especially given that narrow area of strong lift and good s/w. As I said before, every inch of winter hill will be needed, and then some. Weenie ridge will probably get clocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Check out how cold the soundings are along the coast this weekend. I'd pay money to have those mid level temps in the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 As I said before, every inch of winter hill will be needed, and then some. Weenie ridge will probably get clocked. You might want to sit on your roof to maximize elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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