moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 What's wrong Mike? Insomnia? Lol. Made the mistake of picking up my phone as I lay in bed. What did that map show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 NAM def seems a little too far south, but we'll have to see if it is a subtle trend on the 00z runs. That would really put the Pike region into nrn CT back into the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 RGEM is still much further north and robust...it has the snow line right around ORH at 00z Thur evening. Well over a half inch of qpf already into S VT/S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Lol. Made the mistake of picking up my phone as I lay in bed. What did that map show? A solid 2-4" for you my friend. I'll be stopping by if that's the case. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 RGEM is still much further north and robust...it has the snow line right around ORH at 00z Thur evening. Well over a half inch of qpf already into S VT/S NH. Does it go through CT at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 RGEM is still much further north and robust...it has the snow line right around ORH at 00z Thur evening. Well over a half inch of qpf already into S VT/S NH. Does that have a shift south even though north of the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 A solid 2-4" for you my friend. I'll be stopping by if that's the case. lol Always welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Bit of a conditionally unstable layer too on the NAM between 600 and 500mb at 00z and 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Does it go through CT at all? RGEM only goes to 48h so it stops at 00z Thurs evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Always welcome. Go for the gfs! You made it to 11:19 and counting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Does that have a shift south even though north of the nam? I can't really tell since its only getting into its range of 48 hours...previous runs were not getting the storm into SNE by 48h. But its def way more robust/north than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Does it go through CT at all? Face the fact that you will be up once an hour thursday night to check the window to see if Hartford has flipped over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 RGEM only goes to 48h so it stops at 00z Thurs evening. Oh damn. Oh well just wait for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Face the fact that you will be up once an hour thursday night to check the window to see if Hartford has flipped over yet. I probably won't even go to bed at all. Two of my friends asked me if I wanted to go out somewhere for my birthday and I said no b/c I want to look at the models and the snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I can't really tell since its only getting into its range of 48 hours...previous runs were not getting the storm into SNE by 48h. But its def way more robust/north than the NAM. Thanks. Time to put down the phone. Wife coming to bed. Be back at 5:15. Goodnight all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Face the fact that you will be up once an hour thursday night to check the window to see if Hartford has flipped over yet. He probably won't sleep at all actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I probably won't even go to bed at all. Two of my friends asked me if I wanted to go out somewhere for my birthday and I said no b/c I want to look at the models and the snow potential. Yeah, it's pretty crazy, I already know I'll be a wreck come friday morning. At least all i have for work friday is baby duty. Hopefully he gets to see his first snow! You should let your friends buy you a drink for your birthday, the model data is archived. ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 My guess is some of these mesoscale models are a bit too suppressed. It would be nice to have all this extra cold, but the Euro ensembles were not any further south or colder than the OP this afternoon. That raises a red flag for me. The RGEM not agreeing with the NAM is another...usually you want those two to agree. So this SREF/NAM show seems to lack a bit of credibility to me...esp with the SREF increasing its spread at 21z vs the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yeah, it's pretty crazy, I already know I'll be a wreck come friday morning. At least all i have for work friday is baby duty. Hopefully he gets to see his first snow! You should let your friends buy you a drink for your birthday, the model data is archived. ; ) It's not the same as looking at the data as it's coming out. It's like watching a replay of your favorite team b/c you missed the game. They can buy me a drink...and bring it to me here Really tough call down here though...NAM/SREFS look solid but the GFS has me a little worried but we'll see. Hopefully it comes in a bit colder down here with the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It's not the same as looking at the data as it's coming out. It's like watching a replay of your favorite team b/c you missed the game. They can buy me a drink...and bring it to me here Really tough call down here though...NAM/SREFS look solid but the GFS has me a little worried but we'll see. Hopefully it comes in a bit colder warmer down here with the 0z run. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 been lurkin online last few days as i was up in N.conway/Jackson area for a few. hiked the ridge line just s. of mt. washington in a moderate to heavy snow band for an hour or so ...(with snow getting down to about 3800' on sat pm) and accums on trees from 4000' and up just an awesome climate up there in the presidentials above 4k sorry for the OT (will be the one and only) it's great to see what was a pipe dream in many people's mind's on friday when i left....becoming something serious to follow wish i had access to somewhere to view the thurs nite event with elevation ??? but my option are pretty much cambridge or wakefield, ma lol so who knows my sights are pretty much set for sat pm (a real "storm") after getting to live thru already seeing some snow on my hike this last sat in the presidentials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 In short, I still like the Rt 2 corridor in ORH county and NW MA up into S VT and Monadnocks as the best area for this system....we'll see if the rest of the 00z suite says anything different, but based on the RGEM disagreeing with the NAM, my guess is no. We could see this tick south, but it would still jackpot those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 been lurkin online last few days as i was up in N.conway/Jackson area for a few. hiked the ridge line just s. of mt. washington in a moderate to heavy snow band for an hour or so ...(with snow getting down to about 3800' on sat pm) and accums on trees from 4000' and up just an awesome climate up there in the presidentials above 4k sorry for the OT (will be the one and only) it's great to see what was a pipe dream in many people's mind's on friday when i left....becoming something serious to follow wish i had access to somewhere to view the thurs nite event with elevation ??? but my option are pretty much cambridge or wakefield, ma lol so who knows my sights are pretty much set for sat pm (a real "storm") after getting to live thru already seeing some snow on my hike this last sat in the presidentials. Good for you. Snow in Oct is a treat even in the high peaks. If the S trend holds you will have seen snow there then flakes in the CP while the Presidential's are partly cloudy. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 In short, I still like the Rt 2 corridor in ORH county and NW MA up into S VT and Monadnocks as the best area for this system....we'll see if the rest of the 00z suite says anything different, but based on the RGEM disagreeing with the NAM, my guess is no. We could see this tick south, but it would still jackpot those areas. Even the NAM and SREF almost jackpot those areas with them being so far south so yeah, gotta like those areas you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 fwiw the gfs is more impressed with Rita this run so we will see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 In short, I still like the Rt 2 corridor in ORH county and NW MA up into S VT and Monadnocks as the best area for this system....we'll see if the rest of the 00z suite says anything different, but based on the RGEM disagreeing with the NAM, my guess is no. We could see this tick south, but it would still jackpot those areas. It seems that the area you outlined tends to do well in SWFE's compared to other areas of SNE. Is that true? I know my first year out here 07/08 it was SWFE's that buried us when areas S & E were not as prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Even the NAM and SREF almost jackpot those areas with them being so far south so yeah, gotta like those areas you mentioned. Look at the vortmax track....that is often a teller...if its weak, then it can be suppressed, but this isn't that weak. Its anafrontal which will push it south a bit, but its not enough to make a NAM solution IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Look at the vortmax track....that is often a teller...if its weak, then it can be suppressed, but this isn't that weak. Its anafrontal which will push it south a bit, but its not enough to make a NAM solution IMHO. At any rate this sets us up nice for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 At any rate this sets us nice for the weekend. The weekend event is a long shot at this point IMHO...it def could happen, but I think its probably like a 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 shot. Maybe its enough to give interior spots more paste...but I'm doubting the bomb scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The weekend event is a long shot at this point IMHO...it def could happen, but I think its probably like a 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 shot. Maybe its enough to give interior spots more paste...but I'm doubting the bomb scenario. We will see tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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