HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Incoming snow and Lackey out for next year. What a great day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I mowed for the last time 2 weeks ago. The yard is cleaned up and the garden has been turned. Ready for snow. Unfortunately Willow beat me by a 10 days, assuming of course that this snowfall comes to pass. I'll have the camera ready to go at dawn Friday morning. Look forward to reading your thoughts for our area this Winter. Same here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Can you imagine the coupe it would be if the ECM was wrong this time ? Lol, king euro would be dethrowned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 21z SREFs time! I'm banking on some 20-30% 8+ probs for NW mass.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 21z SREFs time! I'm banking on some 20-30% 8+ probs for NW mass.... That would be quite a bit higher than what we saw at 15z...I think the max was about 5-10%. I just want to be in 80% for >1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 That would be quite a bit higher than what we saw at 15z...I think the max was about 5-10%. I just want to be in 80% for >1" It's a tight gradient for the >1" probs. At 15z I think you were in like 60%, I was in 40% and not to far east of me was 5%...or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Do the other models seem to be trending more towards the Euro, or to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Impressed that it has PSF over to SN by 15Z. Not sure it will flip that fast IMO, but if it did, this area could do quite well. Accumulations probably a bit overdone as well. Despite the warm BL, at least we don't have to contend with a brutally high sun angle at this time of year like we would if this were April. Our sun angle is roughly the equivalent of what it is in mid February now. Based on what I've seen, my guess would be 2-4" for most of the PSF area, 4-7" at 2K. Hey mitch, miss your site :-/ you decide to stop paying to host it? (sorry to go OT, noticed that it wasn't there when I went to look at some of the model runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Good grief...SREFs coming in really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Good grief...SREFs coming in really cold. Ryan rewriting the blog as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Good grief...SREFs coming in really cold. Told you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 21z srefs are cold, further south, but still have some good qpf to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I can't believe these would be correct. They have the 0C 850 line almost to the S coast of CT by 00z Thu evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Good grief...SREFs coming in really cold. At this rate, I'm going to be smoking cirrus pretty soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 SREF's look good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I think they were run from Kevin's computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Good grief...SREFs coming in really cold. I thought it was me..lol. QPF was from 21Z througth 06Z didn't seem too different..maybe a touch more to the nw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Man, this 00z suite will be big...if the NAM holds I'll start looking for reasons to believe it, even though its happened many times where it was on its own, only to come around last minute to the other models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 At this rate, I'm going to be smoking cirrus pretty soon... Iv'e already have smoke 2 cirrus blunts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 So no Socks jackpot? ORH 3-6", TOLL 2-4", MRG 4-8, BOS 2-3"? 21z srefs are about to be locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Iv'e already have smoke 2 cirrus blunts I think the structure of that sentence explains it all hahahhaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yeah Will they are ice cold. It's below 0C at 850 on 12Z Thursday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 We'll have to wait until the snow probs come out to see how its occurring. A lot of times you get some obscenely cold and southern members that skew the mean when most of them might be more reasonable. The snow probs would bear that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 So no Socks jackpot? ORH 3-6", TOLL 2-4", MRG 4-8, BOS 2-3"? 21z srefs are about to be locked. I wouldnt jump the gun too soon...the SREFs are on their own with this one...wait for the rest of the 00z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Man, this 00z suite will be big...if the NAM holds I'll start looking for reasons to believe it, even though its happened many times where it was on its own, only to come around last minute to the other models... Hey Ed! Also means little to no snow up here in the NEK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I wouldnt jump the gun too soon...the SREFs are on their own with this one...wait for the rest of the 00z suite LOL I was just saying what the srefs sound like they are smoking. I still expect C-1", don't worry. But if all the models come in like this....then..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 SREF's looks like it gets that 0c line down to the Ma/Ct border pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Matt Noyes thinks "meh" October 25, 2011 - 5 PM Show - The first "Early Estimate" snowfall accumulation map of the season airs on NECN and NECN.com. The early estimate map is something I issue when I believe we are outside of the statistically valid time period for a reliable forecast of snowfall amounts, but close enough that I can decipher the general snowfall pattern. You'll see this for most storms across New England throughout the winter, as in years past. For this particular event, there are a few areas that may need to be changed: 1) Uncertainty regarding the southern edge of the mix line - it's possible some flakes mix in much farther south and east, but any impact would be negligible. 2) The northern edge of the "couple inches" area may have to be scaled back if moisture cannot reach that far north, 3) it's imperative to drive home the importance that elevation will play in the "couple inches" area - valleys will likely not verify those amounts at all. This is further supported by the fact that the 32 degree temperature line remains near the Canadian border for most of Thursday night, meaning the rest of New England, even Northern New England, never drops below freezing. With preceding warm ground, this does not bode well for accumulating snow. My p/c has 25* for Thursday night..... At this rate, I'm going to be smoking cirrus pretty soon... I thought it was me..lol. QPF was from 21Z througth 06Z didn't seem too different..maybe a touch more to the nw? QPF fetish raising it's head??? NAM seems closer to saying wagon's south.... Jackpot shifts from socks to GON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 also has most of Ma. in for 1"+ of qpf. cold and juicy, if this were Dec. rather than Halloween w/e I'd be more excited/confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 My p/c has 25* for Thursday night..... QPF fetish raising it's head??? NAM seems closer to saying wagon's south.... 00z-12z Fri 12hr QPF actually got a bit of an increase for VT/NH this run. My >0.25" probs increased too. Looks really good for you though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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