ski MRG Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Your Willow correlation was dead nuts. LOL, you're the only one that will admit it Ginx ! Thanks. I've watched Willow's forecast for years and it's uncanny how often we'll see similar conditions within 7-10 days. Pure coincidence I'm sure but it happens frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 pffft, no +SN ... weak I'm surprised it didn't output +SN...I guess 0.3 vis was just a shade too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Huh thought you said 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Your Willow correlation was dead nuts. lol. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 1015 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 AKZ101-111-260200- ...FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN ANCHORAGE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Everyone is talking about the advantage of post sunset snow..versus daytime... Yeah no doubt it will help, but we aren't talking about a strong sun here. It is back to a February 14th strength and angle as of Thursday. Residual warmth in the ground is the biggest issue in getting down a foothold and starting the good accumulation. Now I never cut the lawn after October 1st regardless of how much it may grow because why give Saudi Arabia more oil $ and having some good turf is an asset when quicksand mud takes over (like now). So I think it will stick better on my lawn than those lawns sheared to an inch or two like in places such as Tolland. WTF!! Ya blew my cover man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 lol. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 1015 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 AKZ101-111-260200- ...FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN ANCHORAGE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING... looks like they beat you by a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 If the NAM scores a coup with this, being the newest upgrade, I will ride it like Scooter will ride Ray tonight while his wife is out of town. Almost time for the MM5 watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I just passed out! Drinking game WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 If the NAM scores a coup with this being the newest upgrade I will ride it like Scooter will ride Ray tonight while his wife is out of town. Almost time for the MM5 watching! You're making me feel uncomfortable with remarks like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 You're making me feel uncomfortable with remarks like that. Dirty mind, they will be playing horsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Here's some good weenie output from the 18z NAM...those obs look pretty fun http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KAFN.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KORH.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KPSF.txt Impressed that it has PSF over to SN by 15Z. Not sure it will flip that fast IMO, but if it did, this area could do quite well. Accumulations probably a bit overdone as well. Despite the warm BL, at least we don't have to contend with a brutally high sun angle at this time of year like we would if this were April. Our sun angle is roughly the equivalent of what it is in mid February now. Based on what I've seen, my guess would be 2-4" for most of the PSF area, 4-7" at 2K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 You can see how the lift we are talking about is not that high up. Mostly between 850 and 650 mb but concentrated near 750-800mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Impressed that it has PSF over to SN by 15Z. Not sure it will flip that fast IMO, but if it did, this area could do quite well. Accumulations probably a bit overdone as well. Despite the warm BL, at least we don't have to contend with a brutally high sun angle at this time of year like we would if this were April. Our sun angle is roughly the equivalent of what it is in mid February now. Based on what I've seen, my guess would be 2-4" for most of the PSF area, 4-7" at 2K. Damage potential with trees? Lower els seem pretty full at least Oaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Impressed that it has PSF over to SN by 15Z. Not sure it will flip that fast IMO, but if it did, this area could do quite well. Accumulations probably a bit overdone as well. Despite the warm BL, at least we don't have to contend with a brutally high sun angle at this time of year like we would if this were April. Our sun angle is roughly the equivalent of what it is in mid February now. Based on what I've seen, my guess would be 2-4" for most of the PSF area, 4-7" at 2K. The NAM was cold...it flipped everyone early. It had me over to snow by 18z...I think that is probably 6 hours early. But I think many of us should see a pretty good burst of moderate to heavy snow in the evening hours. That will likely be the time when most people pick up any accumulations they are expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Pete may be out of commission at the construction site for a couple days. Impressed that it has PSF over to SN by 15Z. Not sure it will flip that fast IMO, but if it did, this area could do quite well. Accumulations probably a bit overdone as well. Despite the warm BL, at least we don't have to contend with a brutally high sun angle at this time of year like we would if this were April. Our sun angle is roughly the equivalent of what it is in mid February now. Based on what I've seen, my guess would be 2-4" for most of the PSF area, 4-7" at 2K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Matt Noyes thinks "meh" October 25, 2011 - 5 PM Show - The first "Early Estimate" snowfall accumulation map of the season airs on NECN and NECN.com. The early estimate map is something I issue when I believe we are outside of the statistically valid time period for a reliable forecast of snowfall amounts, but close enough that I can decipher the general snowfall pattern. You'll see this for most storms across New England throughout the winter, as in years past. For this particular event, there are a few areas that may need to be changed: 1) Uncertainty regarding the southern edge of the mix line - it's possible some flakes mix in much farther south and east, but any impact would be negligible. 2) The northern edge of the "couple inches" area may have to be scaled back if moisture cannot reach that far north, 3) it's imperative to drive home the importance that elevation will play in the "couple inches" area - valleys will likely not verify those amounts at all. This is further supported by the fact that the 32 degree temperature line remains near the Canadian border for most of Thursday night, meaning the rest of New England, even Northern New England, never drops below freezing. With preceding warm ground, this does not bode well for accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 You can see how the lift we are talking about is not that high up. Mostly between 850 and 650 mb but concentrated near 750-800mb. How does the UVM line up with snow growth region and associated therms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Damage potential with trees? Lower els seem pretty full at least Oaks. Oaks here are still pretty well leafed. 60-80% leafed I would guess Maples, birches mostly done, but dem oaks are a pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 How does the UVM line up with snow growth region and associated therms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 This is the first one of these I have seen this season... You are now in the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Everyone is talking about the advantage of post sunset snow..versus daytime... Yeah no doubt it will help, but we aren't talking about a strong sun here. It is back to a February 14th strength and angle as of Thursday. Residual warmth in the ground is the biggest issue in getting down a foothold and starting the good accumulation. Now I never cut the lawn after October 1st regardless of how much it may grow because why give Saudi Arabia more oil $ and having some good turf is an asset when quicksand mud takes over (like now). So I think it will stick better on my lawn than those lawns sheared to an inch or two like in places such as Tolland. I mowed for the last time 2 weeks ago. The yard is cleaned up and the garden has been turned. Ready for snow. looks like they beat you by a day... Unfortunately Willow beat me by a 10 days, assuming of course that this snowfall comes to pass. Impressed that it has PSF over to SN by 15Z. Not sure it will flip that fast IMO, but if it did, this area could do quite well. Accumulations probably a bit overdone as well. Despite the warm BL, at least we don't have to contend with a brutally high sun angle at this time of year like we would if this were April. Our sun angle is roughly the equivalent of what it is in mid February now. Based on what I've seen, my guess would be 2-4" for most of the PSF area, 4-7" at 2K. I'll have the camera ready to go at dawn Friday morning. Look forward to reading your thoughts for our area this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Damage potential with trees? Lower els seem pretty full at least Oaks. Comparison shots 10/13 and 10/25, other shot Rt.143 Worthington (1600') 10/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The NAM was cold...it flipped everyone early. It had me over to snow by 18z...I think that is probably 6 hours early. But I think many of us should see a pretty good burst of moderate to heavy snow in the evening hours. That will likely be the time when most people pick up any accumulations they are expecting. Oh man... what I'd do for that to happen. Some daylight snow would be awesome to see...even though it won't stick. I fully expect no snow until at least 8-9 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 No changes in the long term BOX AFD steady as she goes Mr. Sulu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Comparison shots 10/13 and 10/25, other shot Rt.143 Worthington (1600') 10/25 Different world up there. 80% color here, but probably only 25-30% drop so far. Heavy Heavy damage if we get significant accumulation Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Different world up there. 80% color here, but probably only 25-30% drop so far. Heavy Heavy damage if we get significant accumulation Saturday Thursday night. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Similar to Pete's leaf situation here.... Todays heavy wind all day cleared off much of what was left. 10/4/87 snowstorm was a big disaster around here with leaves, but this is almost November..... Different world up there. 80% color here, but probably only 25-30% drop so far. Heavy Heavy damage if we get significant accumulation Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 FYP Only if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yeah the max lift is definitely well below the SG region, though the weaker lift extends up into it, so we would probably get some seeder feeder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Can you imagine the coupe it would be if the ECM was wrong this time ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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