CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SREFs still looked like they wanted to put down some small acc even down to Kevin? It's going to be a race, but it almost looks like they want two waves of precip. Maybe the first wave is weak with some leading WAA type rain and the second slug of QPF is assoc with better QG forcing (both warm air advection and positive vorticity advection) NAM has this too...a nice secondary burst of QPF as the cold comes in. Just at forst glance..probably changes to some -sn all the way to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 NAM has this too...a nice secondary burst of QPF as the cold comes in. Just at forst glance..probably changes to some -sn all the way to BOS. NAM is awesome.. probably about as perfect as you could get for N of Pike I love how the snow just lingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I kinda like the look of the NAM downstream for the second storm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 NAM has this too...a nice secondary burst of QPF as the cold comes in. Just at forst glance..probably changes to some -sn all the way to BOS. Yeah that's a nice 1-2" across a huge chunk of SNE with that second burst... a large area of .1-.2" QPF over 3 hours. NAM SFC temps are still 32-36F for most, so maybe only a coating on the cars, grass outside of the hills. But that implies that a lot of folks change to a steady light snow (probably 1sm type stuff which seems like SN+ after a long summer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SVT and SNH definitely the jackpot with maybe 6" or so on the NAM above 1,000ft. The way the H85 freezing line aligns itself for the first half means that most of SNE is rain during that first batch of precip (even high els of East Slope) but then everyone goes over to a burst of snow with the second batch. Maybe 3" in Gods Country, 1-2" ORH hills, coating-1" even in the coastal plain? That's at least how I read that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 thats what it looks like and its not 10 days out! SVT and SNH definitely the jackpot with maybe 6" or so on the NAM above 1,000ft. The way the H85 freezing line aligns itself for the first half means that most of SNE is rain during that first batch of precip (even high els of East Slope) but then everyone goes over to a burst of snow with the second batch. Maybe 3" in Gods Country, 1-2" ORH hills, coating-1" even in the coastal plain? That's at least how I read that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SVT and SNH definitely the jackpot with maybe 6" or so on the NAM above 1,000ft. The way the H85 freezing line aligns itself for the first half means that most of SNE is rain during that first batch of precip (even high els of East Slope) but then everyone goes over to a burst of snow with the second batch. Maybe 3" in Gods Country, 1-2" ORH hills, coating-1" even in the coastal plain? That's at least how I read that. Yup with a decent shot at over performing.. heavy excitement for the switch over.. this board is Gonna be going nuts when that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SVT and SNH definitely the jackpot with maybe 6" or so on the NAM above 1,000ft. The way the H85 freezing line aligns itself for the first half means that most of SNE is rain during that first batch of precip (even high els of East Slope) but then everyone goes over to a burst of snow with the second batch. Maybe 3" in Gods Country, 1-2" ORH hills, coating-1" even in the coastal plain? That's at least how I read that. Probably toward eastern sections..precip might exit too quickly for areas south and west of Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Anybody think advisories will go up considering this is the first snow of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Probably toward eastern sections..precip might exit too quickly for areas south and west of Hartford. Yeah I should've said that... I was thinking more coastal plain east of 495. Particularly North Shore communities away from the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm a little underwhelmed with the NAM ...it wastes an awful lot of qpf before the cold makes enough of a push south of I-90 here in NYS for snow. Technically we get .5" after temps are below -1C 850, but not too far north in the southern Dacks they get a much longer duration of snow. Shift it north another 30-40 miles and I'm Kevin. LOL That could well happen in subsequent runs.... Probably toward eastern sections..precip might exit too quickly for areas south and west of Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 12z NAM is a little warmer, BUT a few hours slower ... it will make all the difference how much falls after sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Anybody think advisories will go up considering this is the first snow of the year? Yes--from BOX I'm guessing the following zones: NH--Cheshire MA--N ORH Western Franklin Eastern Franklin Western Hampshire 48.5/37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You can see even on this sim radar product, that the first area wort of weakens and then another one blossoms. This could very well happen...we'll have to see what the GFS and euro do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You can see even on this sim radar product, that the first area wort of weakens and then another one blossoms. This could very well happen...we'll have to see what the GFS and euro do. Even SREF 3hr precip probs show this very well ... which is pretty significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Anybody think advisories will go up considering this is the first snow of the year? ALB and BOX are going to at least have to do *something* for their SVT and SW.NH zones. Southern Greens and Monadnocks are gonna need at least an Advisory. This is a good run-down from NWS Albany... THERMAL PROFILES OFF THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY OR EVEN AN ENTIRE SNOW EVENT...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTH. THE 00Z NAM INDICATED OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL. EVEN GOING WITH AN 8:1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW FOR SOME! WE ARE NOT BITING ON THIS SOLUTION YET FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...CLIMATOLOGY DICTATES THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD NOT BE LIKELY AT LEAST IN THE VALLEYS. (SEE OUR CLIMATOLOGY). TWO...THE STORM IS POTENT OPEN WAVE...WITH LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...MAINLY AN OVERRUNNING EVENT. THEREFORE...NOT SURE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL TO THE LEVELS THE 00Z NAM INDICATED...UNLESS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE EVEN HEAVIER AND MELTING SNOWFLAKES COULD COLUMN DOWN EVEN MORE. THREE...THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BIT LESS QPF...CLOSER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORT BY THE SREF (AN AVERAGE OF ALL THE NAM RUNS...OPERATIONAL AND OTHERWISE). Point #2 I think is the most valid... this is not some bombing low with a bowling ball of a vort max going overhead. You usually see much better dynamics aloft in the big early season snows which is why 4"+ amounts should be quite small in coverage and kept to the 1,500-2,000+ foot elevations. Still, they are going to be plowing RT 7 in southern VT in Woodford where the road has a large chunk above 2,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yup with a decent shot at over performing.. heavy excitement for the switch over.. this board is Gonna be going nuts when that happens Lets not get ahead of ourselves. We still have to see what other models do today as well. As it looks for SNE..Socks to MPM and Pete seem to be ind decent shape...maybe even HubbDave and down to Will. Will may have to wait just a bit longer than Dave due to latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Scott did you have a chance to compare the NAM to the euro for storm 2? They look similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It looks like the hills have a decent shot an an inch or two if we can get that nice band of fronto after sunset on thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You can see even on this sim radar product, that the first area wort of weakens and then another one blossoms. This could very well happen...we'll have to see what the GFS and euro do. I don't know why but I have the feeling that this is a very valid solution... Overrunning events have a tendency to do this with two bursts of precip. Oftentimes we'll see it when New England is seeing the first burst with a break or very shredded look SW over the Catskills while another burst is developing down in PA. I think from Will on north and west has a very solid shot at 1-2" until you get into SNH and SVT where 3"+ is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 TWO...THE STORM IS POTENT OPEN WAVE...WITH LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...MAINLY AN OVERRUNNING EVENT. THEREFORE...NOT SURE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL TO THE LEVELS THE 00Z NAM INDICATED...UNLESS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE EVEN HEAVIER AND MELTING SNOWFLAKES COULD COLUMN DOWN EVEN MORE. Yes this. I mentioned before even for Mt Socks the fact that there is not a strong CCB that will crank it's going to hard even where soundings seem to be below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 are we going to start a separate thread for snow maps or should we post here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sam, still thinking your map from last night is good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Tolland schools already cancelled for Friday through next Wednesday based on your forecast oh god here come the CT school closings :lol: it must be winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Storm 1 on the euro. This is mainly to show the race of the cold air vs the DS. Starts at 00z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Decently defined deformation zone across NNE that sags south with the approach of the s/w. I think this will play a role in enhancing precip across central New England. This is especially when areas like SW ME and SE NH could cash in if some degree of a band develops and then swings through overnight. NAM is probably overdoing QPF to some extent, like normal, HOWEVER if we see something like this develop, some unexpected areas could do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't know why but I have the feeling that this is a very valid solution... Overrunning events have a tendency to do this with two bursts of precip. Oftentimes we'll see it when New England is seeing the first burst with a break or very shredded look SW over the Catskills while another burst is developing down in PA. I think from Will on north and west has a very solid shot at 1-2" until you get into SNH and SVT where 3"+ is very possible. Hopefully we'll get on the high side of that 1-2". Maintaining low expectations though in spite of weenie thoughts to the contrary. 48.7/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah Sam that might help out with a band of decent echo returns. Despite this not being a dynamic system which hurts a bit, the continuous CAA should help out with the transition over to snow. Sometimes dynamic bombs have strong WAA which can offset some of the dynamic cooling too, with a wrapped up 850 low. I think what we don't want to see is a linear band of crappy echoes thanks to a flat system. But, we may have some good deformation and frontogenesis to get a relatively narrow band of decent echoes that are oriented wsw-ene...all the while pushing east or ese. We'll see what the GFS and Euro do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 are we going to start a separate thread for snow maps or should we post here? Since it'll be a pretty sparse map, I think they'd fit in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Haven't been able to read much due to classes but from the limited I've gathered it sounds like me and blizzard should rip out the toaster and take a bath together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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