ski MRG Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm so happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Over the last 12-24 hours model guidance has shifted back by 6 hours. This is turning into a primarily evening - night event, which makes a huge difference Which the Euro had all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Colder yet precip shield stretches much further north than the NAM... I'd even get an inch or so on the GFS. I'll take it. I'd be surprised if you got nothing. There is usually precip a little further north than models like to depict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Anyone know how to run the skew-t's from Twister? I keep moving the "pin" and hit the "plot a new sounding", but it always goes back to 42.5/72.5. (I'm trying to get 42.599, -72.632). Thanks! The gridpoints are coarse...every 0.5 deg lat/long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Lol...there are groves of trees that are all bare when driving around 1000-1400 feet, but it just depends on what type and where they are. You can get one view of a grove where its all bare and right down the road with some different tree type and exposure will still have a lot of foliage on them. But if 4" of paste falls, that will def cause some issues. You must have been driving past the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Colder yet precip shield stretches much further north than the NAM... I'd even get an inch or so on the GFS. I'll take it. Right. The NEK gets probably 2-3"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 MPM...try this: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html It at least goes out to the hundredths of a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS keeps getting closer with this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah 4" would be very bad I would think.... there's a big difference between 2" and 4" in terms of weight factors on trees. And this will likely be a 6-8:1 ratio snowfall where you can squeeze the water out by making a snowball. The other thing that can impact trees is that even if the surface thermometers are reading 34-35F with no real ground accumulation, trees are going to be the most susceptible to accumulating snow being elevated and away from the warm ground. In marginal situations the top of a pine tree in your yard is going to have by far the most accumulation of anywhere else, lol. You know, one of those 2" snowfalls where the wet grass is sort of patchy in accumulations (especially if half inch of rain falls first), and there's very little ground accumulation, but every little twig and branch has 2" on it just like your deck railing. Won't the ratios steadily increase as the colder air penetrates deeper? I'm just speaking from a guess standpoint. So, the rate of weight gain will steadily decrease? Maybe I'm off my rocker. When a 200 year-old maple knocks out my power and crushes my truck, I'll have my answer. Sort of like the "wise old owl" from the old Tootsie-Pop commercials. "Mr. Owl, how many inches does it take to knock down a tree?" "A-one, and a-two, and a-three. Three inches" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS keeps getting closer with this weekend Yeah it is trying. Seems like it is finally trending sharper with that nrn stream s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 MPM...try this: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html It at least goes out to the hundredths of a degree. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS keeps getting closer with this weekend Yup. From what I see, I'd favor areas N of I-0- Thursday for any appreciable snow accum. on the order of 2-3"+ Temps. will be borderline and snow growth will not be great. I think many of us will see our first flakes, which is all I am hoping to see. Just a crazy, anomalous weather pattern we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The GFS argues that a nice band of snow due to mid level frontogenesis gets Powderfreak. Soundings still show somewhat of a warm layer aloft. Verbatim this runs sucks for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Right. The NEK gets probably 2-3"... Well technically the GFS is showing around 0.25" here, similar to over by you (we are on the same latitude if you are at Lyndon State). But it falls as light precip over like 10 hours. Given the time of year, and a 6-8:1 ratio, I'd put like 1" at 0.25" of liquid taking that verbatim. Also the ground is warm and wet from a record wet 12-month period so it will take a frustratingly long time of -SN to get accums. There's no way you can take this situation and treat it like a normal 10:1 snow on an already frozen ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 NAM still showing best ML frontogenesis across NNE ... I'm still interested to see whether some banding of better echoes forms across S VT into C NH Oh man so happy to see you using this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The GFS argues that a nice band of snow due to mid level frontogenesis gets Powderfreak. Soundings still show somewhat of a warm layer aloft. Verbatim this runs sucks for Kevin. That looks terrain induced... like east winds into the east side of the Spine, and then again eastern slopes of the Dacks on the NY side of Lake Champlain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That looks terrain induced... like east winds into the east side of the Spine, and then again eastern slopes of the Dacks on the NY side of Lake Champlain. I don't means the VVs..I'm talking the large and expansive band of moisture up north. The GFS is more aggressive than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS coming arouund. Wants to develop off the coast. I'm thinking it will finally come around on the next run. Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 During Irene I had like 15k hits the day before Yea but Kevin hitting refresh 13000 times counts as a hit each time, LOL, what's a better measure is how many unique visitors. I pumped your blog incessantly and you still dog me mercilessly ,I will put a link on Twitter and FB on Thursday AM when you really have it nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 First call: Updated map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The GFS argues that a nice band of snow due to mid level frontogenesis gets Powderfreak. Soundings still show somewhat of a warm layer aloft. Verbatim this runs sucks for Kevin. GFS is kind of a torch for awhile in the low levels. At 00z, its all below 0C here down to 911mb, but then it keeps it pretty warm below that. Even the Euro was a lot colder below that...but GFS typically does like to keep it pretty warm near the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't means the VVs..I'm talking the large and expansive band of moisture up north. The GFS is more aggressive than the NAM. Ah haha... yeah we can sometimes do ok when SNE gets hit hard if some west-east band sets up well north of the main precip shield. It happens almost exactly like the GFS is showing with some band near Lake Ontario stretching into north/central VT and then over into the Whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The GFS argues that a nice band of snow due to mid level frontogenesis gets Powderfreak. I forget...are your parents living in the Laconia area yet? What are your thoughts for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 for those who follow the NOGAPS trend rule, 18z NOGAPS run makes it the third consecutive with a southern push to the thursday system (looks now like ORH might remain mostly snow) and a westward push to the Saturday system (now it gets the snow shield back to about 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 First call: http://www.americanw...ost__p__1057009 Updated map: Laptop rose 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well technically the GFS is showing around 0.25" here, similar to over by you (we are on the same latitude if you are at Lyndon State). But it falls as light precip over like 10 hours. Given the time of year, and a 6-8:1 ratio, I'd put like 1" at 0.25" of liquid taking that verbatim. Also the ground is warm and wet from a record wet 12-month period so it will take a frustratingly long time of -SN to get accums. There's no way you can take this situation and treat it like a normal 10:1 snow on an already frozen ground. True statement. I am at LSC in the MET deptartment. Yeah it might add up to 1-2" on grassy surfaces.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 First call: Updated map: I would be happy with that Sam, Nice map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 First call: http://www.americanw...ost__p__1057009 Updated map: Not bad, I'd still probably be hesitant to go 4-8" anywhere (well maybe above 2000 in southern greens I would)...but its certainly a legit possibility. The rest of it looks pretty decent. Nice job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wild from about 9pm to 1-2am here. Up by Rt 2 the fun starts earlier Sounds like I can expect anywhere from just some whitening of the ground to an inch or 2 if I'm lucky. I'll be really interested to see what the 00z gfs and 00z euro do tonight with the Saturday night storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS is kind of a torch for awhile in the low levels. At 00z, its all below 0C here down to 911mb, but then it keeps it pretty warm below that. Even the Euro was a lot colder below that...but GFS typically does like to keep it pretty warm near the sfc. Yeah I ignore the lower levels. It seemed like south of the Pike had a stubborn warm layer at 800mb. On the GFS anyways. I suppose it could be on the warmer side there..and likely also a function if dynamics to a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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