moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Reformed?lol Oh, absolutely. Just trying to figure out if I need to lug out the snowblower. 48.6/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I want to say DD but what you wrote makes sense Any idea how many people read that? During Irene I had like 15k hits the day before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Oh, absolutely. 48.6/34 Good, good.lol Very busy Mike, what's it look like, 2-4" maybe 3-6"? As long as snow is in the air I'll count it as a good omen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Good, good.lol Very busy Mike, what's it look like, 2-4" maybe 3-6"? As long as snow is in the air I'll count it as a good omen. I'm pretty sure you're going to be cross-country skiing in your yard on Friday. I hope you've got that gear ready... do a few kick turns for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Good, good.lol Very busy Mike, what's it look like, 2-4" maybe 3-6"? As long as snow is in the air I'll count it as a good omen. Playing conservatively, the 2-4" is reasonable. But, if we can change over early, the totals could be significantly higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 NAM still showing best ML frontogenesis across NNE ... I'm still interested to see whether some banding of better echoes forms across S VT into C NH Most of the time it would be, but I think the forcing is defintely more in the lower levels. Look how compact the gradient is at 850. Maybe it does throw some more snow further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 MEkster last night was saying even 2" of paste can bring down lots of limbs... Power issues ahead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Most of the time it would be, but I think the forcing is defintely more in the lower levels. Look how compact the gradient is at 850. Maybe it does throw some more snow further north. Which will be a problem for southern areas. This morning a lot of the BUFKIT soundings showed some serious snow growth issues south of the Pike. ORH was borderline but OK. BDL was atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 MEkster last night was saying even 2" of paste can bring down lots of limbs... Power issues ahead? Yeah 2" of paste with leaves on the trees is bad news. If you put a 6-10" blue bomb over parts of CT this weekend we're going to see severe problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 MEkster last night was saying even 2" of paste can bring down lots of limbs... Power issues ahead? Yes...although most of the higher spots have less leaves than lower down so that will help, but even so, there will still be issues because the snow will be wet and even 2-4 paste in winter can cause some minor issues...throw in some leaves and it could be a bit ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Happens just about every year now it seems. Once you get down into the BOX and OKX CWAs, the criteria is three inches, and with criteria that low, I think they should stick to it first snowfall or not. Yeah I've always thought the same, but then again even during the middle of the winter they'll use Advisories or Warnings for snow during commutes even if it doesn't necessarily reach criteria. There seems to be some decent leeway in those statements. The worst are the Winter Storm Warnings when snowfall only averages 5" or so but all falls in 3 hours during the evening commute or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 18z GFS looks more like the NAM with a bigger chunk of southern energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 MEkster last night was saying even 2" of paste can bring down lots of limbs... Power issues ahead? Maybe the tree that I did not take down will come down after all. Saving money, ftw. Losing my power (the line to the house would come down with it) ftl Generator, ftw Cable/internet also under the tree, ftl. 48.5/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yes...although most of the higher spots have less leaves than lower down so that will help, but even so, there will still be issues because the snow will be wet and even 2-4 paste in winter can cause some minor issues...throw in some leaves and it could be a bit ugly. Judging by MRG Pete, I thought the higher elevations have been bare for a month? Haha, but it is nice to see even the Red Taggers getting excited about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah I've always thought the same, but then again even during the middle of the winter they'll use Advisories or Warnings for snow during commutes even if it doesn't necessarily reach criteria. There seems to be some decent leeway in those statements. The worst are the Winter Storm Warnings when snowfall only averages 5" or so but all falls in 3 hours during the evening commute or something. To be honest the winter advisory/warning program doesn't mean much of anything to the general public. In fact most of the time I don't even mention what the NWS has issued here in CT because it's a nightmare sometimes with 3 offices covering 8 counties. Most mets can't even tell you what the criteria is. Sometimes I wish the NWS would just stick to severe wx alerts and just get rid of the headlines the rest of the time... they're more confusing than not half the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Judging by MRG Pete, I thought the higher elevations have been bare for a month? Haha, but it is nice to see even the Red Taggers getting excited about this. Lol...there are groves of trees that are all bare when driving around 1000-1400 feet, but it just depends on what type and where they are. You can get one view of a grove where its all bare and right down the road with some different tree type and exposure will still have a lot of foliage on them. But if 4" of paste falls, that will def cause some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 To be honest the winter advisory/warning program doesn't mean much of anything to the general public. In fact most of the time I don't even mention what the NWS has issued here in CT because it's a nightmare sometimes with 3 offices covering 8 counties. Most mets can't even tell you what the criteria is. Sometimes I wish the NWS would just stick to severe wx alerts and just get rid of the headlines the rest of the time... they're more confusing than not half the time. That's probably very true. My parents wouldn't know the difference between a Winter Storm Warning and an Advisory. I'm sure they don't even know the difference between a Watch and a Warning either, lol. It just means they expect to be inconvenienced which I guess is sort of the point of the statements anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm pretty sure you're going to be cross-country skiing in your yard on Friday. I hope you've got that gear ready... do a few kick turns for me Just got home from work and went to the ski room to get set for another season. Love the ski room, it's my man cave.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS a little slower again. But the s/w is less amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 18z GFS looks more like the NAM with a bigger chunk of southern energy Looks further north then the nam to me, At least with its precip field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Seems like NAM is farthest south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS is colder than 12z...it really cranks after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Looks further north then the nam to me.. yup...as I said earlier..my area in the NEK of VT gets .25" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS is colder than 12z...it really cranks after 00z. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Lol...there are groves of trees that are all bare when driving around 1000-1400 feet, but it just depends on what type and where they are. You can get one view of a grove where its all bare and right down the road with some different tree type and exposure will still have a lot of foliage on them. But if 4" of paste falls, that will def cause some issues. Yeah 4" would be very bad I would think.... there's a big difference between 2" and 4" in terms of weight factors on trees. And this will likely be a 6-8:1 ratio snowfall where you can squeeze the water out by making a snowball. The other thing that can impact trees is that even if the surface thermometers are reading 34-35F with no real ground accumulation, trees are going to be the most susceptible to accumulating snow being elevated and away from the warm ground. In marginal situations the top of a pine tree in your yard is going to have by far the most accumulation of anywhere else, lol. You know, one of those 2" snowfalls where the wet grass is sort of patchy in accumulations (especially if half inch of rain falls first), and there's very little ground accumulation, but every little twig and branch has 2" on it just like your deck railing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yep. Wild from about 9pm to 1-2am here. Up by Rt 2 the fun starts earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Over the last 12-24 hours model guidance has shifted back by 6 hours. This is turning into a primarily evening - night event, which makes a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Which will be a problem for southern areas. This morning a lot of the BUFKIT soundings showed some serious snow growth issues south of the Pike. ORH was borderline but OK. BDL was atrocious. Anyone know how to run the skew-t's from Twister? I keep moving the "pin" and hit the "plot a new sounding", but it always goes back to 42.5/72.5. (I'm trying to get 42.599, -72.632). Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yep. Colder yet precip shield stretches much further north than the NAM... I'd even get an inch or so on the GFS. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah I've always thought the same, but then again even during the middle of the winter they'll use Advisories or Warnings for snow during commutes even if it doesn't necessarily reach criteria. There seems to be some decent leeway in those statements. The worst are the Winter Storm Warnings when snowfall only averages 5" or so but all falls in 3 hours during the evening commute or something. They should reintroduce the "traveler's advisories". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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