OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Looks similar to today's EC 48 hour prog. I don't like when the lows stretch; with these scenarios UVM is not strong and often times the NWP's OVER predict the UVM in these type scenarios. The low isn't anymore stretched than other runs. In fact it's a bit more contracted because the s/w is sharper. The only reason people are *perceiving* it to be more stretched is because the program is drawing the low to one side of the pressure trough rather than in the middle like previous runs. UVM is sure to be stronger this run for a few reasons: sharper trough -- stronger PVA, and stronger frontogenetic forcing with a tighter temp gradient in a stronger deformation zone. This run would result in a more concentrated band of higher snow totals ... getting on up into the 6-12" range ... *NOT my forecast* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Did anyone see wbz bostons forecast??NNE gets 6-12"...wtfff are they on? it's the WSI simulation model (forget what it's called)..always overdoes it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Socksageddon cancel LOL, Kevin's faux meltdowns are always based in some truth. Long live the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Did anyone see wbz bostons forecast??NNE gets 6-12"...wtfff are they on? Bath Salts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The low isn't anymore stretched than other runs. In fact it's a bit more contracted because the s/w is sharper. The only reason people are *perceiving* it to be more stretched is because the program is drawing the low to one side of the pressure trough rather than in the middle like previous runs. UVM is sure to be stronger this run for a few reasons: sharper trough -- stronger PVA, and stronger frontogenetic forcing with a tighter temp gradient in a stronger deformation zone. This run would result in a more concentrated band of higher snow totals ... getting on up into the 6-12" range ... *NOT my forecast* The sharper trough and better PVA almost turns this into a mini-Miller B nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 it's the WSI simulation model (forget what it's called)..always overdoes it Pretty significant "overdoing" seeing as the euro and gfs gives us 1-2" of fluff up here and the nam gives us zippo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Mike I think you will do quite well on the 1st system. I am a bit more confident in who will get and where the snow will accumulate. In general AOA 1200 feet areas Catskills, Bergs, Cntl Taconics and Berkshires in the running for 2-4 " lollies 6-8 highest peaks these locations Yeah--I think it'll be okay. Regardless, any snow in October is a bonus. That being said, the southward shift of the precipitation is giving me pause for MBY. Trying to strike the balance between an earlier start to snow and lowering qpf. Might be a wash for a lot of folks where the snowier areas are dryer and the heavier qpf areas have a waste element due to more rain on the front end. 50.4/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ha, I just got a cord of wood delivered yesterday, sitting in the driveway; guess I am going to have some long evenings this week! How did you find us again? How much did you get last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 This run would result in a more concentrated band of higher snow totals ... getting on up into the 6-12" range ... *NOT my forecast* You can't take that back---you said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 it's the WSI simulation model (forget what it's called)..always overdoes it The name is Scooters Snow Simulation Stimulator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Pretty significant "overdoing" seeing as the euro and gfs gives us 1-2" of fluff up here and the nam gives us zippo. I don't see any model solution that gets anything other then maybe 1-2" of a Cumby Chill Zone up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 This run would result in a more concentrated band of higher snow totals ... getting on up into the 6-12" range ... Wow Sam calling for 6-12 lollies of 14, lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah--I think it'll be okay. Regardless, any snow in October is a bonus. That being said, the southward shift of the precipitation is giving me pause for MBY. Trying to strike the balance between an earlier start to snow and lowering qpf. Might be a wash for a lot of folks where the snowier areas are dryer and the heavier qpf areas have a waste element due to more rain on the front end. 50.4/33 I don't want any Oct snow, Isn't that bad juju going into winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The name is Scooters Snow Simulation Stimulator. that's right , Scooter does work there if i recall correctly guess i should clarify that's its one of their products based off of another model ...maybe the HRW or something similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wow Sam calling for 6-12 lollies of 14, lock it up. I wonder if DT will chime in with a call...... 50.1/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You can't take that back---you said it. yeah, I need to watch myself haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The low isn't anymore stretched than other runs. In fact it's a bit more contracted because the s/w is sharper. The only reason people are *perceiving* it to be more stretched is because the program is drawing the low to one side of the pressure trough rather than in the middle like previous runs. UVM is sure to be stronger this run for a few reasons: sharper trough -- stronger PVA, and stronger frontogenetic forcing with a tighter temp gradient in a stronger deformation zone. This run would result in a more concentrated band of higher snow totals ... getting on up into the 6-12" range ... *NOT my forecast* Agree with this. Lows don't really "stretch." Rather, the graphical depictions of surface pressure create this illusion. In this case the area of maximum upper level divergence and surface convergence appears to hang back toward the approaching vortmax in response to it being slightly stronger/more pronounced. This apparently delays the progression of the low center and associated precip without decreasing the intensity. Meanwhile the thermal boundary has more time to sag southward. This is a wonderfully hypothetical scenario if you are a snow lover. Not so much if you prefer warm, dry Halloweens. I still think you'd be stuck with mostly rain or slop if you're stuck deep in a valley or on the eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't want any Oct snow, Isn't that bad juju going into winter? So I've been told. But the bird in the hand attitude says "bring it on". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The low isn't anymore stretched than other runs. In fact it's a bit more contracted because the s/w is sharper. The only reason people are *perceiving* it to be more stretched is because the program is drawing the low to one side of the pressure trough rather than in the middle like previous runs. UVM is sure to be stronger this run for a few reasons: sharper trough -- stronger PVA, and stronger frontogenetic forcing with a tighter temp gradient in a stronger deformation zone. This run would result in a more concentrated band of higher snow totals ... getting on up into the 6-12" range ... *NOT my forecast* you're reasoning is sound and the NAM will show some crazy UVM but again I look at as I posted..the low is more stretched like a frontal wave or waves (yes, initially there could be two lows); also flow is (fcst) fast and strongly confluent good for more cold air across ENY/CNE but neither great for generating or maintaining (duration of ) any strong UVM if strong UVM occurred at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Can someone remind me the approx. time that models start coming out? It's been about a year now.... you're reasoning is sound and the NAM will show some crazy UVM but again I look at as I posted..the low is more stretched like a frontal wave or waves (yes, initially there could be two lows); also flow is (fcst) fast and strongly confluent good for more cold air across ENY/CNE but neither great for generating or maintaining (duration of ) any strong UVM if strong UVM occurred at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Agree with this. Lows don't really "stretch." Rather, the graphical depictions of surface pressure create this illusion. In this case the area of maximum upper level divergence and surface convergence appears to hang back toward the approaching vortmax in response to it being slightly stronger/more pronounced. This apparently delays the progression of the low center and associated precip without decreasing the intensity. Meanwhile the thermal boundary has more time to sag southward. This is a wonderfully hypothetical scenario if you are a snow lover. Not so much if you prefer warm, dry Halloweens. I still think you'd be stuck with mostly rain or slop if you're stuck deep in a valley or on the eastern shore. This NAM solution allows for a decent mid-level circulation to develop too which just enhances the ML frontogenesis to the north...even throwing a bit of extra moisture too via a hint of a CCB. Its definitely the ideal scenario for getting more snow. But until the Euro can come south with that vortmax more, I'm remaining fairly skeptical of anything more than a couple of sloppy inches for anyone. If there's one piece of legit evidence to hang our hat on for the Euro being too weak/north with the vortmax, its that the Euro does have a bias of hanging back energy in the SW US a little too much...so if more of that vorticity gets engulfed by the main shortwave, then we'd see a deeper solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Two snowstorms in October sounds like a lovely start to the season for me. :D This NAM solution allows for a decent mid-level circulation to develop too which just enhances the ML frontogenesis to the north...even throwing a bit of extra moisture too via a hint of a CCB. Its definitely the ideal scenario for getting more snow. But until the Euro can come south with that vortmax more, I'm remaining fairly skeptical of anything more than a couple of sloppy inches for anyone. If there's one piece of legit evidence to hang our hat on for the Euro being too weak/north with the vortmax, its that the Euro does have a bias of hanging back energy in the SW US a little too much...so if more of that vorticity gets engulfed by the main shortwave, then we'd see a deeper solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Agree with this. Lows don't really "stretch." Rather, the graphical depictions of surface pressure create this illusion. In this case the area of maximum upper level divergence and surface convergence appears to hang back toward the approaching vortmax in response to it being slightly stronger/more pronounced. This apparently delays the progression of the low center and associated precip without decreasing the intensity. Meanwhile the thermal boundary has more time to sag southward. This is a wonderfully hypothetical scenario if you are a snow lover. Not so much if you prefer warm, dry Halloweens. I still think you'd be stuck with mostly rain or slop if you're stuck deep in a valley or on the eastern shore. Well lows can be described as stretched, as in a pressure trough. The graphical illusion is in where the surface low is placed and the areal coverage of the first isobar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Two snowstorms in October sounds like a lovely start to the season for me. :D Sounds and actually occuring are two very different things..... BOX showing rain showers Sat and, depending on your zone, SN/RN, RN/SN, or RN for Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 you're reasoning is sound and the NAM will show some crazy UVM but again I look at as I posted..the low is more stretched like a frontal wave or waves (yes, initially there could be two lows); also flow is (fcst) fast and strongly confluent good for more cold air across ENY/CNE but neither great for generating or maintaining (duration of ) any strong UVM if strong UVM occurred at all. I'm just comparing with previous runs. I agree with everything you said here. The latest run is just a bit more amped up, and shifted toward a more coherent low developing south of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Eh, what do they know Sounds and actually occuring are two very different things..... BOX showing rain showers Sat and, depending on your zone, SN/RN, RN/SN, or RN for Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Doesn't the BL look rather warm on the 18z NAM? Outside of the high elevations, isn't this a rainstorm wih some mangled flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Doesn't the BL look rather warm on the 18z NAM? Outside of the high elevations, isn't this a rainstorm wih some mangled flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 NAM clown map...probably overdone by at least a factor of 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Can someone remind me the approx. time that models start coming out? It's been about a year now.... these aren't exact...but more or less the time I start check on the various models NAM: 9:45/3:45 (AM/PM) GFS: 11:30/5:30 (AM/PM) Canadian/UK/NOGAPS: 12:30ish (AM/PM) Euro: 2:15 (AM/PM) keep in mind...these will all shift an hour earlier when DST ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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