Johnno Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It would go along nicely with the rest of 2011 weather wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 BDL record is 1.7" for the month.............. In and of itself reason for caution. I think boston is at 1.1" for the record. I don't know about interior areas like Norwood. Anyway, cool to see thanks for all the great maps guys. I need to go mow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well this is about perfect so not much more can improve from the euro SnowNH has really improved his Euro manipulation from his basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 So for people closer to the coast like us...we should expect rain for storm 2? It would def be rain for a while, but then likely flip to snow at some point. A BM track will def help areas just away from the beaches with winds more nrly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 When it's this far out, it's fun to look at and make you want to watch the next run of models. I fear that this will continue to trend away. So, like Rick, I"m going to focus what I might eek out of Thursday/night. Anything else will be a bonus. Quick question--does any snow after the summer solstice count as toward the following winter's seasonal total? The snow season runs from July 1st to June 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 98 users for a euro run... is it December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The snow season runs from July 1st to June 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 There's hardly ever been one (at least in the past century) in the hills even. Oct 4, 1987 in the Taconics...but otherwise really nothing. Its extremely rare outside of the mountains of NNE. The last 3 yrs I have had accumulating snowfall in Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The last 3 yrs I have had accumulating snowfall in Oct. I've had accumulating snow 5 times in October in the past decade. But his question was about blizzards in October, not accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Man I'd trade any garbage from the first event to get that Euro solution to verify. That would be just amazing...its like an early December snow blue bomb. corrected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hoping ski country gets an early season, massive base boost. It isn't ridiculously early for interior SNE. I remember I think in 1987 when our football game had to be called off in early November due to snow. I think that was around the 11th. I could have sworn the year before we had a decent early November snow too. 1" plus snows in boston are incredibly rare in October per history http://www.erh.noaa....te/bossnw.shtml But, we are talking a few days from November. Interesting, hope you guys get an early snow. Wimps! Storm 2 We still can afford to go more east too. Sometimes, being in GC can play against you. The snow season runs from July 1st to June 30th. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Schweet! Thursday Night Snow Likely Lo 26 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Schweet! Thursday Night Snow Likely Lo 26 °F We'll need to see that icon shift into Thursday daytime in order to exceed expectations. 51.8/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 i was thinking the same thing for here!! Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. North wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Schweet! Thursday Night Snow Likely Lo 26 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 "...12Z UPDATE... WITH ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION EARLY-MID PERIOD... THE UKMET HAS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT EWD AND THE GFS/CMC HAVE STAYED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE SPREAD. HOWEVER THE ECMWF REMAINS THE CLOSEST TO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW ALBEIT WITH FASTER TIMING. WITH THE CNTRL CONUS TROF BY SUN-MON... THE UKMET OFFERS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN. THE ECMWF SEPARATES ITS SRN STREAM FARTHER EWD THAN THE PAST 1-2 RUNS... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE... BUT IT STILL SHOWS MORE SEPARATION THAN OTHER SOLNS. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN/CMC REMAIN FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. WITH THE TROF ENTERING WRN NOAM BY MON OR TUE... THE ECMWF/CMC ARE THE SHARPEST/MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE CMC STILL A SLOW EXTREME. FOR THE UPDATED PRELIMS A GENERAL PREFERENCE TOWARD SOMEWHAT SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN THE GFS/GEFS CLUSTER WITH THE LEADING TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD FAVORED AN INITIAL BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN... 70 PCT TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL RUN DAYS 3-5 FRI-SUN AND THEN 70 PCT TOWARD THE MEAN BY DAYS 6-7 MON-TUE AS CONFIDENCE IN OPERATIONAL DETAILS DECLINES. MODEST EWD DEPARTURE OF THE 12Z UKMET FROM THE ECMWF WITH THE WRN ATLC SYSTEM LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO SLIGHTLY BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY VOLATILE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FOR THE FINAL FCST OF THIS FEATURE... " I still maintain that the consistency in the ECMWF solution is paramount. The non-wavering (comparative to the others) may in large part be born of superior initialization - particularly over the Pac domain, where the middle weekend governing dynamics are situated, the modeling requires superior estimations for input data. If the ECM had pulled the plug on this run I'd be less adverse to tossing the middle weekend ordeal, but it stayed course, and is now on D4.5 - ie, passing statistically into its verification wheel-house. By this time tomorrow we may very well be refocusing efforts on storm profile over occurrence - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 15z SREFs cooled off a decent amount. I suspect when the snow probabilities come in, they will be quite a bit higher than the 09z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 15z SREFs cooled off a decent amount. I suspect when the snow probabilities come in, they will be quite a bit higher than the 09z run. With the eastward movement of Saturday--this will be a nice consolation. More for the leaf thread, but a nice 'deck-clearing' wind today--now leaf free. 51.5/33 with top gust of 23mph at 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 15z SREFs cooled off a decent amount. I suspect when the snow probabilities come in, they will be quite a bit higher than the 09z run. Maybe that might turn Kevin's frown upside down. CTZ003-252000- TOLLAND CT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANSFIELD...STAFFORD SPRINGS...VERNON 115 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 .THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY. COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH... INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 51.4/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Any met have the euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Any met have the euro ensembles? Scott or Will usually do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Any met have the euro ensembles? I only have it out to 6hr so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Any met have the euro ensembles? They are out to 60 hours. They are almost identical to the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 What a nice burst from that second wave of moisture modeled on the SREFs. That will whiten up the ground in many spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Maybe that might turn Kevin's frown upside down. CTZ003-252000- TOLLAND CT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANSFIELD...STAFFORD SPRINGS...VERNON 115 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 .THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY. COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH... INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 51.4/33 LOL..I'm stoked..I'm preparing for 1-2 inches Thursday nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 What a nice burst from that second wave of moisture modeled on the SREFs. That will whiten up the ground in many spots. They look really good. Hopefully they are seeing something with their slightly later initialization that the Euro isn't...but I won't hold my breath quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The JMA has about a 4 or 5 NESDIS blizzard for the mid weekend deal.... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 yep, it's the double JE rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 They look really good. Hopefully they are seeing something with their slightly later initialization that the Euro isn't...but I won't hold my breath quite yet. Almost every NMM/ARW member is a complete whiff or graze for the CON area. Based on the globals I'd have to think the mean will be bumping slightly north with time unless they're seeing something the globals aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 yep, it's the double JE rule lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The JMA has about a 4 or 5 NESDIS blizzard for the mid weekend deal.... wow What does that mean exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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