ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 On 10/26/2011 at 6:06 AM, Snow88 said: The FIM actually did pretty well last winter. No it didn't. Its a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 On 10/26/2011 at 6:05 AM, forkyfork said: it doesn't look as good as 12z for the weekend coastal Might look like EC ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yeah it's de-amplified a good bit compared to the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 On 10/26/2011 at 6:09 AM, earthlight said: Yeah it's de-amplified a good bit compared to the 12z run Still a lot of potential though at least. It doesn't look that bad at 5h...it needs a little jolt, but given the time frame, it could still be something to watch closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 That's still a nasty vortmax coming through this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Is the Euro still far enough south to where I'f flip over to snow at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 84h is starting to amp up pretty quick regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 On 10/26/2011 at 6:11 AM, ORH_wxman said: Still a lot of potential though at least. It doesn't look that bad at 5h...it needs a little jolt, but given the time frame, it could still be something to watch closely. It still has that potent shortwave leading the trough (was in SW PA on 12z) and it's really insistent on tucking the storm in as it develops...even despite the de-amplified height field initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yeesh thats a close call...good vortmax, but a tad too progressive. I think the sfc low could be tucked in a bit closer if that vortmax trends stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looks a little GFS like and brushes srn and ern areas with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looks fairly similar to the GFS to my eye...both with the sfc low track and coverage of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Well 4 days to work on the solution. We know the 12z run today was likely too good to be true, but hopefully we can get some sort of a paste job for some Saturday night., even if it's a glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Dr. No showed us why that is why we call the Euro that...a slight south trend, but unimpressive precip in storm #1, and then a scraper for storm #2. I really hate this model sometimes. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Post-00z run call: Socks (KAFN): 4.3" Hubbdave: 3.5" KORH: 2.3" KTOL: 0.8" MPM: 3.7" MRG: 4.0" KGAY: 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I feel good about seeing flakes and mdt confidence on a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Will, those look pretty sound. I was going to throw around amounts, but seems good. I was gonna say maybe like 1.8" for ORH, but whatever....lol, you should still get measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 On 10/26/2011 at 6:22 AM, ORH_wxman said: Post-00z run call: Socks (KAFN): 4.3" Hubbdave: 3.5" KORH: 2.3" KTOL: 0.8" MPM: 3.7" MRG: 4.0" KGAY: 0.5" kbow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 On 10/26/2011 at 6:30 AM, Snow Bow said: kbow? 1.7" ...600 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The best part about the Kevin pic is that he accepts his fate with the smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 On 10/26/2011 at 6:34 AM, ORH_wxman said: 1.7" ...600 feet? Yes 600' I was thinking 2" so 1.7 sounds good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 On 10/26/2011 at 6:35 AM, ORH_wxman said: The best part about the Kevin pic is that he accepts his fate with the smile. The best pic is the one with him in the tub with the pope hat and he's just smiling with his arm in back of him, on the tub. LOL> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Well, I won't be in the tub with a toaster. I'll take my 1.2" thurs. night and hope the Euro and GFS come west for the weekend. Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 On 10/26/2011 at 6:35 AM, ORH_wxman said: The best part about the Kevin pic is that he accepts his fate with the smile. Well if you take a look at where the toaster is positioned I think you'll see where the smile comes from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looking at euro wundermaps looks like even on the Euro I could get possibly a few tenths of an inch of snow or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Expect a trend north and a bit warmer from the NAM at 06z and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 lol 6z nam actually looks south and colder On 10/26/2011 at 6:59 AM, ORH_wxman said: Expect a trend north and a bit warmer from the NAM at 06z and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 On 10/26/2011 at 8:51 AM, ineedsnow said: lol 6z nam actually looks south and colder clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 HPC on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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