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First Winter Storm Threat for New England 2011/12 - II

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted
  On 10/26/2011 at 12:27 AM, Ginx said:

Your Willow correlation was dead nuts.

LOL, you're the only one that will admit it Ginx ! Thanks. I've watched Willow's forecast for years and it's uncanny how often we'll see similar conditions within 7-10 days. Pure coincidence I'm sure but it happens frequently.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Everyone is talking about the advantage of post sunset snow..versus daytime... Yeah no doubt it will help, but we aren't talking about a strong sun here. It is back to a February 14th strength and angle as of Thursday. Residual warmth in the ground is the biggest issue in getting down a foothold and starting the good accumulation.

Now I never cut the lawn after October 1st regardless of how much it may grow because why give Saudi Arabia more oil $ and having some good turf is an asset when quicksand mud takes over (like now). So I think it will stick better on my lawn than those lawns sheared to an inch or two like in places such as Tolland.

  On 10/26/2011 at 12:28 AM, ski MRG said:

WTF!! Ya blew my cover man.

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
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  On 10/26/2011 at 12:36 AM, Ginx said:

If the NAM scores a coup with this being the newest upgrade I will ride it like Scooter will ride Ray tonight while his wife is out of town. Almost time for the MM5 watching!

You're making me feel uncomfortable with remarks like that.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted
  On 10/26/2011 at 12:22 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Here's some good weenie output from the 18z NAM...those obs look pretty fun

http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KAFN.txt

http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KORH.txt

http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KPSF.txt

Impressed that it has PSF over to SN by 15Z. Not sure it will flip that fast IMO, but if it did, this area could do quite well. Accumulations probably a bit overdone as well. Despite the warm BL, at least we don't have to contend with a brutally high sun angle at this time of year like we would if this were April. Our sun angle is roughly the equivalent of what it is in mid February now. Based on what I've seen, my guess would be 2-4" for most of the PSF area, 4-7" at 2K.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 10/26/2011 at 12:40 AM, wxmanmitch said:

Impressed that it has PSF over to SN by 15Z. Not sure it will flip that fast IMO, but if it did, this area could do quite well. Accumulations probably a bit overdone as well. Despite the warm BL, at least we don't have to contend with a brutally high sun angle at this time of year like we would if this were April. Our sun angle is roughly the equivalent of what it is in mid February now. Based on what I've seen, my guess would be 2-4" for most of the PSF area, 4-7" at 2K.

Damage potential with trees? Lower els seem pretty full at least Oaks.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 10/26/2011 at 12:40 AM, wxmanmitch said:

Impressed that it has PSF over to SN by 15Z. Not sure it will flip that fast IMO, but if it did, this area could do quite well. Accumulations probably a bit overdone as well. Despite the warm BL, at least we don't have to contend with a brutally high sun angle at this time of year like we would if this were April. Our sun angle is roughly the equivalent of what it is in mid February now. Based on what I've seen, my guess would be 2-4" for most of the PSF area, 4-7" at 2K.

The NAM was cold...it flipped everyone early. It had me over to snow by 18z...I think that is probably 6 hours early. But I think many of us should see a pretty good burst of moderate to heavy snow in the evening hours. That will likely be the time when most people pick up any accumulations they are expecting.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Pete may be out of commission at the construction site for a couple days. :)

  On 10/26/2011 at 12:40 AM, wxmanmitch said:

Impressed that it has PSF over to SN by 15Z. Not sure it will flip that fast IMO, but if it did, this area could do quite well. Accumulations probably a bit overdone as well. Despite the warm BL, at least we don't have to contend with a brutally high sun angle at this time of year like we would if this were April. Our sun angle is roughly the equivalent of what it is in mid February now. Based on what I've seen, my guess would be 2-4" for most of the PSF area, 4-7" at 2K.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Matt Noyes thinks "meh"

October 25, 2011 - 5 PM Show - The first "Early Estimate" snowfall accumulation map of the season airs on NECN and NECN.com. The early estimate map is something I issue when I believe we are outside of the statistically valid time period for a reliable forecast of snowfall amounts, but close enough that I can decipher the general snowfall pattern. You'll see this for most storms across New England throughout the winter, as in years past. For this particular event, there are a few areas that may need to be changed: 1) Uncertainty regarding the southern edge of the mix line - it's possible some flakes mix in much farther south and east, but any impact would be negligible. 2) The northern edge of the "couple inches" area may have to be scaled back if moisture cannot reach that far north, 3) it's imperative to drive home the importance that elevation will play in the "couple inches" area - valleys will likely not verify those amounts at all. This is further supported by the fact that the 32 degree temperature line remains near the Canadian border for most of Thursday night, meaning the rest of New England, even Northern New England, never drops below freezing. With preceding warm ground, this does not bode well for accumulating snow.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted
  On 10/26/2011 at 12:35 AM, Logan11 said:

Everyone is talking about the advantage of post sunset snow..versus daytime... Yeah no doubt it will help, but we aren't talking about a strong sun here. It is back to a February 14th strength and angle as of Thursday. Residual warmth in the ground is the biggest issue in getting down a foothold and starting the good accumulation.

Now I never cut the lawn after October 1st regardless of how much it may grow because why give Saudi Arabia more oil $ and having some good turf is an asset when quicksand mud takes over (like now). So I think it will stick better on my lawn than those lawns sheared to an inch or two like in places such as Tolland.

I mowed for the last time 2 weeks ago. The yard is cleaned up and the garden has been turned. Ready for snow.

  On 10/26/2011 at 12:35 AM, thebigrombalski said:

looks like they beat you by a day...

Unfortunately Willow beat me by a 10 days, assuming of course that this snowfall comes to pass.

  On 10/26/2011 at 12:40 AM, wxmanmitch said:

Impressed that it has PSF over to SN by 15Z. Not sure it will flip that fast IMO, but if it did, this area could do quite well. Accumulations probably a bit overdone as well. Despite the warm BL, at least we don't have to contend with a brutally high sun angle at this time of year like we would if this were April. Our sun angle is roughly the equivalent of what it is in mid February now. Based on what I've seen, my guess would be 2-4" for most of the PSF area, 4-7" at 2K.

I'll have the camera ready to go at dawn Friday morning. Look forward to reading your thoughts for our area this Winter.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted
  On 10/26/2011 at 12:42 AM, ORH_wxman said:

The NAM was cold...it flipped everyone early. It had me over to snow by 18z...I think that is probably 6 hours early. But I think many of us should see a pretty good burst of moderate to heavy snow in the evening hours. That will likely be the time when most people pick up any accumulations they are expecting.

Oh man... what I'd do for that to happen. Some daylight snow would be awesome to see...even though it won't stick. I fully expect no snow until at least 8-9 though.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Similar to Pete's leaf situation here.... Todays heavy wind all day cleared off much of what was left.

10/4/87 snowstorm was a big disaster around here with leaves, but this is almost November.....

  On 10/26/2011 at 12:57 AM, weatherMA said:

Different world up there. 80% color here, but probably only 25-30% drop so far. Heavy Heavy damage if we get significant accumulation Saturday night.

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