dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:30 PM, weatherMA said: Sounds like I can expect anywhere from just some whitening of the ground to an inch or 2 if I'm lucky. I'll be really interested to see what the 00z gfs and 00z euro do tonight with the Saturday night storm. GFS trends west, Euro trends east, Quite simple actually.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I know its pretty much useless, but the 18z gfs twisterdata snow map shows the gradient really well. From about the Pike to 15 miles north of the pike it goes from no accumulation to 2-3". Jackpot of 5" for Pete/MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:31 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah I ignore the lower levels. It seemed like south of the Pike had a stubborn warm layer at 800mb. On the GFS anyways. I suppose it could be on the warmer side there..and likely also a function if dynamics to a point. Oh yeah, I see it now. I thought you were talking about here up through N ORH county...and I couldn't see the warm layer on the soundings. I guess right near the 0C 850 line there is a bit of inversion around the CT border and Mt. Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:24 PM, dendrite said: I forget...are your parents living in the Laconia area yet? What are your thoughts for this area? They just got a place there..nothing permanent, but a vacation home. I think you are in a good spot for some accumulation. I suppose a bigger question mark is if the best QPF is south of you, but I think you are in good shape for maybe 1-3". How high are you? That will also have an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:33 PM, Dryslot said: GFS trends west, Euro trends east, Quite simple actually.... Yeah probably. I would like to see the ec ensembles trend west though. The op euro is really the only thing giving me significant snow. So I should probably toss everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:33 PM, ORH_wxman said: Oh yeah, I see it now. I thought you were talking about here up through N ORH county...and I couldn't see the warm layer on the soundings. I guess right near the 0C 850 line there is a bit of inversion around the CT border and Mt. Tolland. It's that gradient again...lol. Boy is it sharp. The GFS does get close to 0C at 800mb in your area, but again..don't know how realistic that is. It seems to do that as the best lift exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:34 PM, CoastalWx said: They just got a place there..nothing permanent, but a vacation home. I think you are in a good spot for some accumulation. I suppose a bigger question mark is if the best QPF is south of you, but I think you are in good shape for maybe 1-3". How high are you? That will also have an impact. Scooter was that link I gave you in your thread what you were looking for. FYI check the cited ones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:37 PM, CoastalWx said: It's that gradient again...lol. Boy is it sharp. The GFS does get close to 0C at 800mb in your area, but again..don't know how realistic that is. It seems to do that as the best lift exists. Yeah here's the point sounding for here at 00z Thu evening...you can see the torch below 910mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:34 PM, CoastalWx said: They just got a place there..nothing permanent, but a vacation home. I think you are in a good spot for some accumulation. I suppose a bigger question mark is if the best QPF is south of you, but I think you are in good shape for maybe 1-3". How high are you? That will also have an impact. I've been leaning D-2". I'm 200' up a hill, but still only at 615'. The top of my hill peaks near 900'. If I get into some deformation and heavier rates I can envision myself dropping to near 32F and accumulating for a bit during the last few hours, but a NAM scenario probably spells doom for me other than a slushy coating. October snow is bonus snow so whatever happens I can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah here's the point sounding for here at 00z Thu evening...you can see the torch below 910mb All a function of. NE inflow off warm water, get that flow NNE or N and you flip faster than Theo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Thursday looks cold no matter what BOX has me at a high of 39, and I tend to be a little cooler than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:42 PM, Ginx said: All a function of. NE inflow off warm water, get that flow NNE or N and you flip faster than Theo. Well even a 040-050 wind shouldn't be an issue here...GFS loves to keep the LLs torched quite frequently. As mentioned before, even the fairly warm Euro was much colder in the boundary layer at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:35 PM, weatherMA said: Yeah probably. I would like to see the ec ensembles trend west though. The op euro is really the only thing giving me significant snow. So I should probably toss everything else. Yeah, The euro ensembles going SE each run is not a good sign up here any ways because of the low track, I think you will keep seeing the op shift with them as well, But has it gone as far as it will go or does it continue? Thats the question, I thinks we will see the Euro continue to shift SE and the GFS will continue NW and then we end up getting just whiffed by both, Hope i am totally wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:22 PM, wxwatcher91 said: First call: http://www.americanw...ost__p__1057009 Updated map: Only a coating for the Rev? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah here's the point sounding for here at 00z Thu evening...you can see the torch below 910mb With that ENE wind I would think you'll cool nicely on the hill there. You seem to get some upslope enhancement on that wind flow in the lower levels and a little forced orographic lift can lead to that localized cooling of another 0.5-1.0C up on the hilltops. That's another reason why the east slopes of the Berks might cool quicker relative to surroundings if there's a 20-25kt easterly flow into the Berkshire crest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:40 PM, dendrite said: I've been leaning D-2". I'm 200' up a hill, but still only at 615'. The top of my hill peaks near 900'. If I get into some deformation and heavier rates I can envision myself dropping to near 32F and accumulating for a bit during the last few hours, but a NAM scenario probably spells doom for me other than a slushy coating. October snow is bonus snow so whatever happens I can't complain. Well 615' isn't bad considering how cool aloft it is. If you can get into the good lift than yeah I think 2" or maybe better is possible. Obviously crappy moisture and lift and you're not getting more than a flake. I feel like that latter won't be an issue so I feel pretty good for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think this is reasonable from channel 7. Maybe move the C-1" a little north, and include a stripe of 2-4" near Pete/MPM/Nate....but its pretty good anyway. Everyone sees 1-3" and assumes 3" anyway so no need to go all out on tv. One problem with the map though is it shows Hartford where Tolland is practically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Really cant see KHFD-KPVD-KBOS getting more than flakes..just too warm in the BL..now the NE and NW hills of CT is a different story. 1-3" possible in Litchfield Cty and up to an inch near Rev Kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:52 PM, weatherMA said: I think this is reasonable from channel 7. Maybe move the C-1" a little north, and include a stripe of 2-4" near Pete/MPM/Nate....but its pretty good anyway. Everyone sees 1-3" and assumes 3" anyway so no need to go all out on tv. One problem with the map though is it shows Hartford where Tolland is practically. It also looks like that dip southward in the 1-3" range for ORH county is too far west...doesn't line up with the best terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 fwiw...18z GEFS mean is cooler/south of 12z. For the weekend there isn't much change, but there's some troughiness/QPF hanging back toward the coast so there's probably a couple decent members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:55 PM, ORH_wxman said: It also looks like that dip southward in the 1-3" range for ORH county is too far west...doesn't line up with the best terrain. Yeah I agree. It's almost in the valley to the west of ORH. I guess we know what he meant though? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 10:55 PM, ORH_wxman said: It also looks like that dip southward in the 1-3" range for ORH county is too far west...doesn't line up with the best terrain. Well, for Boston viewers, west of ORH is the wild hinterlands anyway What are your feelings on the timing if a flip for Worcester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 11:05 PM, HubbDave said: Well, for Boston viewers, west of ORH is the wild hinterlands anyway What are your feelings on the timing if a flip for Worcester? I'm thinking around 00z we flip..maybe a shade later. Certainly up by you I would think its snowing by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Only 2 hours and 45 minutes until the nam gets into the 36-48hr range!! Oh, I forgot, and the srefs only 2 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 11:09 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'm thinking around 00z we flip..maybe a shade later. Certainly up by you I would think its snowing by 00z. What do you think around here? Snowing by 9-10:00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 11:19 PM, CT Blizz said: What do you think around here? Snowing by 9-10:00? Yeah probably about 2-3 hours after I flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 11:20 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah probably about 2-3 hours after I flip. what are you thinking for my area in VT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 11:22 PM, ctsnowstorm628 said: what are you thinking for my area in VT? I haven't really been paying attention to that area, but I'm sure it will snow some there. Maybe an inch or two. Southern Greens def look like the jackpot for VT and perhaps anyone in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Couple of weenie solutions for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 On 10/25/2011 at 11:24 PM, dendrite said: Couple of weenie solutions for the weekend. The overall consensus seems to be for a near miss right now. I guess its too early to write it off, but i feel like the op euro is the only one keeping us interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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