msuwx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Quick question for you guys that do a Winter Forecast. I am in the process of putting my ideas together, and I normally try to avoid reading anything prior to doing my own so as to not slant my opinion in one way or another. But with that said, I was curious what ENSO analogs you are leaning on. I have 7 I have preliminarily chosen. Are you only looking at Winters with a La Nina the previous winter as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Quick question for you guys that do a Winter Forecast. I am in the process of putting my ideas together, and I normally try to avoid reading anything prior to doing my own so as to not slant my opinion in one way or another. But with that said, I was curious what ENSO analogs you are leaning on. I have 7 I have preliminarily chosen. Are you only looking at Winters with a La Nina the previous winter as well? Some people are using 2nd-year Ninas as a criteria for their analogs. There really hasn't been any surprise forecasts beyond what you typically see in a weak/moderate Nina setup, so analogs generally match that. What it really comes down to is if you think the blocking will be in place this winter (-AO/-NAO) and how strong the warmth (and at what times) the warmth will be across the South (which is associated with persistent upper-level ridging). Analogs are then decided via this split in thinking regarding the Southeast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 my analogs were 56-57, 62-63, and 08-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Some people are using 2nd-year Ninas as a criteria for their analogs. There really hasn't been any surprise forecasts beyond what you typically see in a weak/moderate Nina setup, so analogs generally match that. What it really comes down to is if you think the blocking will be in place this winter (-AO/-NAO) and how strong the warmth (and at what times) the warmth will be across the South (which is associated with persistent upper-level ridging). A nalogs are then decided via this split in thinking regarding the Southeast ridge. Oh yeah, feel pretty strongly that the NAO/ AO will sort of drive the ship again this winter. Lots of busted ideas for parts of the winter last year (including mine) due to this. my analogs were 56-57, 62-63, and 08-09. I am using two of those as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Oh yeah, feel pretty strongly that the NAO/ AO will sort of drive the ship again this winter. Lots of busted ideas for parts of the winter last year (including mine) due to this. Good deal. I am using two of those as well. As am I. Specifically 1962-63 and 2008-09, though 2010-11 and 1995-96 are my more heavily-weighted analogs. Sadly, 1995-96 doesn't have a lot of fans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Good deal. As am I. Specifically 1962-63 and 2008-09, though 2010-11 and 1995-96 are my more heavily-weighted analogs. Sadly, 1995-96 doesn't have a lot of fans Is there a reason 1967/68 isn't really popular either? My bro (BS in AS) has been saying big things about 1967/68 due to the apparent stratospheric similarities to this year, I don't understand that aspect as much as you, or him/anyone else in the field, so I'm curious if maybe there is some sort of disconnect between this year and 1967/68? The Sun seems like a close match geomagnetically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Is there a reason 1967/68 isn't really popular either? My bro (BS in AS) has been saying big things about 1967/68 due to the apparent stratospheric similarities to this year, I don't understand that aspect as much as you, or him/anyone else in the field, so I'm curious if maybe there is some sort of disconnect between this year and 1967/68? The Sun seems like a close match geomagnetically. 1967-68 was a very odd winter regarding the temperature pattern, with a warm eastern half in December, frigid throughout the country in January and very cold in the eastern half in February. The -AO/-NAO blocking pattern is also poorly reflected in the overall temperature pattern, especially when considering the recent blocking of 2009-10 and 2010-11. The lack of correlation (which was basically 0 for December and February) to what my overall thinking was for the winter in addition to the lack of a correlation to the summer 2011 temps are the main reasons why I discarded it. EDIT: Too add that summer 1967 was basically a flipped pattern of summer 2011 with regards to temperature anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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