Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah I agree. If I lived in Will's area, Gods Country, into far NW CT I'd be interested in how this unfolds. yep. someone up that way could make out fairly decently...especially considering the calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Sorry to go MBY but what about areas like MHT and CON? Well it's always a wild card for lower elevations. Both places are pits. It will come down to dynamics, but both places do have a shot since their latitude will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm about 50/50 on measurable for here...maybe slightly more. Only takes 0.1" for measurable. I'd feel a lot better up where Socks is though up in Rindge, NH. I'm def impressed at how quickly things cool as the storm is trying to exit stage right...the vortmax track argues for good moisture hanging back in the cold sector, so there's def some potential. Even the CP could flip over for a time if it pans out right. The timing does look pretty good. would you extend that feeling from Rindge over to me, Brian, Eric and Jeff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 More often than not, it pays to go balls to the wall when forecasting Pretty much the opposite is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 would you extend that feeling from Rindge over to me, Brian, Eric and Jeff? I'd feel better for that region...though if you get too far north, you might be out of the good precip in the first storm...if the current track holds close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 the potential snow event on thursday night reminds me of another event in late october (possibly oct 23, 2002) .. cold rain flipped over to snow between 6 am and 7 am imby and continued until ~9 am. I think most of the interrior flipped over that morning, resulting in 1"-2" (maybe 3" loli in higher terrain?) for a lot of the area .. although comparing synoptics of the prior event to this one show a lot of differences a similiar outcome may be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Anticipating euro to show a bomb for Saturday.. last winter it was always a couple runs ahead of other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Anticipating euro to show a bomb for Saturday.. last winter it was always a couple runs ahead of other models we're 6 days out, u got to focus on the near-term now btw, the trof axis left behind after thursday's storm dictates where sat's will go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Those euro snow algorithms look weenie-ish to me. I wish I could see the "algorithms" - If we are just talking partial thickness....yeah, agreed - anomalous llv thickness times well with open wave.. But what about unfrozen earth with over-abundant moisture content... That should infuse a "non-stick" clause one would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 the potential snow event on thursday night reminds me of another event in late october (possibly oct 23, 2002) .. cold rain flipped over to snow between 6 am and 7 am imby and continued until ~9 am. I think most of the interrior flipped over that morning, resulting in 1"-2" (maybe 3" loli in higher terrain?) for a lot of the area .. although comparing synoptics of the prior event to this one show a lot of differences a similiar outcome may be possible 10/23/02...yeah most of our area saw 1-2" with 3"+ above about 900 feet. The event wasn't as juicy or large scale, but it was semi-similar...it had a little anafrontal vortmax track over or us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 With each model run the "threat" is increasing, but far from a "lock". North & West counties have best shot of seeing snow...which is a bonus considering it still is October. Way too early to speculate on accumulations...but that's my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Even for higher elevations... 3-5" of heavy wet snow would produce damage to trees. We had an October snowstorm at Penn State that took down an unbelievable number of limbs and trees across town for very little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 the potential snow event on thursday night reminds me of another event in late october (possibly oct 23, 2002) .. cold rain flipped over to snow between 6 am and 7 am imby and continued until ~9 am. I think most of the interrior flipped over that morning, resulting in 1"-2" (maybe 3" loli in higher terrain?) for a lot of the area .. although comparing synoptics of the prior event to this one show a lot of differences a similiar outcome may be possible Having it fall on the overnight hours would help the accumalations some with marginal snowfall rates, This stuff will be like cement this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 What are the mets take on the 12z NOGAPS today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Even for higher elevations... 3-5" of heavy wet snow would produce damage to trees. We had an October snowstorm at Penn State that took down an unbelievable number of limbs and trees across town for very little snow. Maple mauler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 What are the mets take on the 12z NOGAPS today? That's known as the Schwartz Synoptic Seven Rule..If the Gaps has it north..it's coming since it's bias is usually way SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 With each model run the "threat" is increasing, but far from a "lock". North & West counties have best shot of seeing snow...which is a bonus considering it still is October. Way too early to speculate on accumulations...but that's my two cents. That first sentence goes with any storm we track lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 What are the mets take on the 12z NOGAPS today? The 132-138 hour nogaps is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 What are the mets take on the 12z NOGAPS today? Toss it like a football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I wish I could see the "algorithms" - If we are just talking partial thickness....yeah, agreed - anomalous llv thickness times well with open wave.. But what about unfrozen earth with over-abundant moisture content... That should infuse a "non-stick" clause one would think It's on the Wunderground site. John, don't tell me you don't know about this site! http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The 132-138 hour nogaps is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It's on the Wunderground site. John, don't tell me you don't know about this site! http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Maybe he shouldn't have been wearing the" Date me I'm a meteorlogist tee shirt that night" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'd feel better for that region...though if you get too far north, you might be out of the good precip in the first storm...if the current track holds close. Thank you. At least for Eric, Brian and I we would benefit from hangback moisture perhaps more than Nate. Great to be tracking this early. I like October storms better than April, unless it is an April blizzard. By April I'm not excited about 3-6 but in Oct it's awesome. Haven't seen anything beyond an inch in October since something in Delaware in the late 70s (I grew up in Dover DE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Biggest run of SNO's life coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 That's known as the Schwartz Synoptic Seven Rule..If the Gaps has it north..it's coming since it's bias is usually way SE exactly....if it's east don't be alarmed, if it's west sound the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12z NAM looks fantastic. Setting up for a huge snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Biggest run of SNO's life coming up He could end up taking your post count spot from last year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Thank you. At least for Eric, Brian and I we would benefit from hangback moisture perhaps more than Nate. Great to be tracking this early. I like October storms better than April, unless it is an April blizzard. By April I'm not excited about 3-6 but in Oct it's awesome. Haven't seen anything beyond an inch in October since something in Delaware in the late 70s (I grew up in Dover DE) If it tracks a bit north you would...but the current track would get his area in Rindge harder...you can see it between 81=84 hours on the GFS loop http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/AVNEAST_12z/avneastloop.html It goes more ENE rather than hooking up to the north...at least as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12z NAM looks fantastic. Setting up for a huge snow storm It does as long as we can get it inside of 36 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12z NAM looks fantastic. Setting up for a huge snow storm I like where we sit right now in SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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