powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Wow the NAM Is balls cold at 2M. it's colder than some of our snowstorms lol It is implying our first sub-freezing high temp (or sub-freezing 24 hour period) up here... haha. That'd be impressive after the 6 months of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If you look at when temps plummet on the NAM the winds crank out of the north at nearly 20 knots. If we can get to storm to be intensifying rapidly south of us it could certainly get interesting. NAM has 2M temps below freezing for most of the event for some of the hill towns in western and central Mass. Even Northampton gets a good dump of snow on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 LOL... Pete gets a foot of snow followed by tons of posts about how could anyone ever doubt winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Wow the NAM Is balls cold at 2M. it's colder than some of our snowstorms lol I was really surprised at those temps...lol, but maybe it's picking up the higher elevation detail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If you look at when temps plummet on the NAM the winds crank out of the north at nearly 20 knots. If we can get to storm to be intensifying rapidly south of us it could certainly get interesting. NAM has 2M temps below freezing for most of the event for some of the hill towns in western and central Mass. Even Northampton gets a good dump of snow on the NAM. it's also a kevin nightmare run as hvy hvy snow falls not too far N and W and E of him...but not much verbatim in NE CT. even kgay would end up with some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM clown map Would look quite different if we could take the nam out a few more pannels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I was really surprised at those temps...lol, but maybe it's picking up the higher elevation detail? that's definitely part of it yeah. you can see it pretty well there how it follows some of the contours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 it's also a kevin nightmare run as hvy hvy snow falls not too far N and W and E of him...but not much verbatim in NE CT. even kgay would end up with some. It's not out of the question if he stays in his shed with every gasoline powered tool on full throttle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 that's definitely part of it yeah. you can see it pretty well there how it follows some of the contours Yeah because I actually don't have an issue with the 32F line...but maybe this new upgrade had some sort of topographic enhancement. Anyways, it's cold. It has the 1000-850 CT line over BOS from 15Z Thursday until 00z Friday which made me question it a little. That seems almost too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Extrapolating the NAM (terrible idea) would probably shift some of the precip northeastward into NE VT and N NH as a fluffy snow with temps 20-25 and h85 temps well below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 With regards to storm number 1, I am preparing for a cold rain with the hopes of seeing some snow/snowflakes at the end of it. With the hopes of possibly seeing a coating if I am lucky. As for the second storm it is definitely more interesting to me. Just looking at the Euro through Wunderground a few things might actually be there for us. After storm 1 goes by the board we will have some left over cold that sticks around for storm number 2 so that is good news. Looking at the overall pattern, things don't look too too bad. Looking at the 500 mb level there is a decent ridge located over the center of the country and up into Canada with our potential storm and associated trough draped over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, so the overall pattern scheme is there. One thing that is interesting for storm 2 is the way that it is going to get its energy per the Euro atleast. Our potential storm is a combination of a piece of energy coming out the southwest and another piece diving out of the Dakotas. Which hopefully they will come together just right to give us a decent coastal storm to talk about for the next week. Ofcourse everything that I am saying will probably be gone with the next run of the Euro and it will probably be sunny and a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah because I actually don't have an issue with the 32F line...but maybe this new upgrade had some sort of topographic enhancement. Anyways, it's cold. It has the 1000-850 CT line over BOS from 15Z Thursday until 00z Friday which made me question it a little. That seems almost too cold. if you took that run as is and had to run with it, it'd be a tough call for like BOS, NE MA...time of day and NE wind coming off of 51-55F water vs what look like pretty decent dynamics and some meaningful cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 As of now, NW MASS, S VT, and S NH are the sweet spots. Definitely possible snowfall all the way to the Canadian border with this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 if you took that run as is and had to run with it, it'd be a tough call for like BOS, NE MA...time of day and NE wind coming off of 51-55F water vs what look like pretty decent dynamics and some meaningful cold. I think if you did picture what could occur post hr 84, it would flip over in BOS and prob int se mass. Also, there might be some weird stuff going on with a cold ne wind coming off the water. Like some cellular type echoes coming off....basically convective looking stuff from low level CAPE. I guess I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think if you did picture what could occur post hr 84, it would flip over in BOS and prob int se mass. Also, there might be some weird stuff going on with a cold ne wind coming off the water. Like some cellular type echoes coming off....basically convective looking stuff from low level CAPE. I guess I could see that. yeah certainly looked that way. entertaining to think about i guess. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Just to put things in perspective...two weeks ago we were arguing over whether some spots would hit 90F. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If you're going to post a clown map, do it right! NAM total snowfall through 84 hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If you're going to post a clown map, do it right! NAM total snowfall through 84 hr: Am i reading that right? lol gotta love a clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Best snowstorm of 2011-2012 before November 1? Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 112z GFS looks a little warmer than 06z for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Best snowstorm of 2011-2012 before November 1? Ouch. So I take it you are holding to your winter forecast...at least I think it was you who didn't think we would do well this year...sorry if I am wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It's not out of the question if he stays in his shed with every gasoline powered tool on full throttle. The NAM would be snow in NE CT. You know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Still flips areas like ctrl and nrn ORH county over...not much change from 06z. Pretty good s/w allows some hang back moisture for this to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Best snowstorm of 2011-2012 before November 1? Ouch. ORH had its biggest snowstorm in 1979-1980 on 10/10/79 with 7.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 850 - 0C line runs along the Pike h78-h81. Crashing heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Still flips areas like ctrl and nrn ORH county over...not much change from 06z. Pretty good s/w allows some hang back moisture for this to occur. The last two runs of the GFS have def been south of the previous 6 or 7 runs where they were targeting tracking the sfc low almost over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The NAM would be snow in NE CT. You know that Very little... probably little if any accumulation. A couple inches in the NW hills of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The last two runs of the GFS have def been south of the previous 6 or 7 runs where they were targeting tracking the sfc low almost over us. Yeah they torched yesterday. The 06z run made a big change. I think ideally we would want the track to be a little more south, but honestly....how can we be picky in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 GFS looks good for Mt. Socks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 there's actually a sneaky warm layer on the NAM above 800 mb...so verbatim...a spot like ORH actually goes snow to sleet/zr. LOL. that would be entertaining in october. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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