CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 yeah that would be my concern as well. though it does have a few things going for it...nighttime, heights crash pretty good (on the euro at least) and it's definitely a cold air mass coming in. Yeah it's about as good as it can get. I'd like to see the UL system trend a little bit stronger and further south... leading to stronger cyclogenesis. I think a stronger northerly ageostrophic flow in the BL will help and stronger UVM is never a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah although I wonder if the BL issues for most areas under 1000ft south and east of Will are going to trump any trend south? It's the perfect setup for a late October/early November snow for the interior elevations. I saw the critical thicknesses and 950 temps. It did flip Kevin over briefly, but he has to wait for the 950-850mb layer to cool some more. It even looked like BOS might turn to a 34-35F catpaw deal before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM going to be real good for pike north EDIT...it actually intensifies it so much that a lobe of warm air comes into sne, rather than keeping the low riding along a constant latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I find it odd/impressive that at my location which is pretty good for radiational cooling, the first killing freeze is progged to occur during this precip event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 And not so good pike south, 84hr Nam is as usefull as the DGEX.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM clocks Nate...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM clocks Nate...lol. Who's Nate? Do you mean Mount Socks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Got my first straight-up "Snow likely" of the season.... highs in the low-mid 30s and lows in the 20s. Winter's coming in fast. Thursday: Snow likely after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Even the GFS flips many to snow before ending. 06z GFS is also good for Socks. What's good for Socksy is good for Mahksy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Who's Nate? Do you mean Mount Socks? Yeah...snow covering his socks on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 And not so good pike south, 84hr Nam is as usefull as the DGEX.. no kidding....it loses the sat night/sun threat cause instead of holding back the energy in TX/OK, it almost has a phase (albeit a tad late) for thu/fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 3X porn baby, its going to be a 3x winter. price of lube is rising..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I find it odd/impressive that at my location which is pretty good for radiational cooling, the first killing freeze is progged to occur during this precip event. Funny you say that because sometimes growing up on the shoreline in CT our first "freeze" would occur the first time it snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 no kidding....it loses the sat night/sun threat cause instead of holding back the energy in TX/OK, it almost has a phase (albeit a tad late) for thu/fri Wants to pop the low in the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Funny you say that because sometimes growing up on the shoreline in CT our first "freeze" would occur the first time it snowed. Funny you mention that, because I said that recently about BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I feel like weenie for saying this, but if you look at the H5 pattern at hr 84, it would probably end as snow for much of the interior too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Too much caution and pessimism from some corners. It's October so you go at it full bore Better sun angle than April and few hours of sun per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I feel like weenie for saying this, but if you look at the H5 pattern at hr 84, it would probably end as snow for much of the interior too. Yeah agreed... especially maybe NW CT/Will/NW of 495? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 MRG could be in good shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 MRG could be in good shape Not sure I will be able to take him, if this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 price of lube is rising..... Holy crap that NAM looms awesome! Very long duration with a coastal developing What strikes me on the NAM is that cold airmass... look at that -10C sitting just above NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Not sure I will be able to take him, if this pans out. He seems to be more into debating whether it was 44 for a high or 46 for a high. He's pretty low key with snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Anyone else see the NAM 2M temps?? Those look almost too cold over NY state and CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM clown map Clearly a clown map...doesn't give me enough snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Anyone else see the NAM 2M temps?? Those look almost too cold over NY state and CNE/NNE. 6-12" Catskills? Man some of those towns that have town centers up above 1,800-2,000ft+ in the Catskills look to get some solid snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Anyone else see the NAM 2M temps?? Those look almost too cold over NY state and CNE/NNE. Wow the NAM Is balls cold at 2M. it's colder than some of our snowstorms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM clown map That would be fantastic for NW Ma. Maybe tuning the snow thrower yesterday wasn't "a little early" as my wife and neighbors suggested. ; ) By tonight MP will be raising the qpf doubts. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Anyone else see the NAM 2M temps?? Those look almost too cold over NY state and CNE/NNE. Looks like there will be frost ice on the pumpkin this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Wow the NAM Is balls cold at 2M. it's colder than some of our snowstorms lol Yea it keeps Albany at about freezing Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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