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Go Time - First Winter Storm Threat for New England 2011/12


Baroclinic Zone

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But but but, you do know the magic surrounding the rolling hills of Tolland don't you?

Maybe they have weird trees to go along with their weird lapse rates.

But seriously the hills are at peak color in CT into adjacent areas of Mass while the Valleys are still a couple days away at least.

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No you're wrong. I was just up in Norfolk, Hartland, and Colebrook area yesterday and they are just about at peak. Those areas are colder, snowier, and get peak color earlier than you.

I drove the MassPike from 91 to western NY Sunday and back yesterday. I was amazed to see as many leaves on the trees at 1600-1700' at the high point of the pike as I did. I was expecting all bare, but they actually had more than me. Crazy. Latitude differences I imagine.

I'll be content with an inch or two and for now, that's what I'm expecting. I'm not sure on timing, but it would be interesting if there were a delay on Friday. Our district is 400 sq miles (the largest in Mass) and pulls in folks from towns of 1800-2000'. I imagine those areas would do quite well.

EDIT: just to clarify--the hills were definitely past peek (map fail) and many leaves were gone. I had expected bare ones.

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The weekend storm on the EC looks like it would have some heavy wind damage at the coast and in E MA. Definitely high impact for all verbatim since those that don't get clocked by the snow get the wind, it has some areas of the cape at 50-60 kt and E MA at 25-40 kt as the storm is bombing out per wunderground.

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Most recent HPC dumping the GFS:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD459 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 VALID 12Z SAT OCT 29 2011 - 12Z TUE NOV 01 2011 USED PRIMARILY THE 00Z/25 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS ANDPRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...WITH A MINOR INCORPORATION OF THE12Z/24 ECENS MEAN TO SOFTEN THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THEMAJOR SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...A POINT STILL VERY MUCH IN CONTENTION. THE GFS IS A FLAT...PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH THE WAVE EMERGINGFROM THE SOUTHERN STATES LATE IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE ECMWF ANDUKMET HAVE SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THISSYSTEM DURING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGHDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINSINLAND...WITH SNOW INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST DAY 4INTO EARLY DAY 5. THE PATTERN RETAINS A HIGH AMPLITUDE IN THEWAKE OF THE STORM FROM COAST TO COAST...WITH THE POLAR FRONTSUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH.

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HPC gives their assessment ...

That brings a smile to my face. Of course, 40% probabiliyy is a 60% likelihood that it will be less than 4". I'd say that 'coin-flip' (with a little weight to the lower) approach is fair enough at this point in time when small adjustments will have great impacts.

With regard to the weekend, there will be some significant adjustments from the GFS to show any love.

Are there specific elements we should look to wrt how Thursday/night play out that should impact the storm/no-storm situation for Saturday?

TIA.

45.8/40

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That brings a smile to my face. Of course, 40% probabiliyy is a 60% likelihood that it will be less than 4". I'd say that 'coin-flip' (with a little weight to the lower) approach is fair enough at this point in time when small adjustments will have great impacts.

With regard to the weekend, there will be some significant adjustments from the GFS to show any love.

Are there specific elements we should look to wrt how Thursday/night play out that should impact the storm/no-storm situation for Saturday?

TIA.

45.8/40

You may have some qpf issues with this storm.....lol

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That brings a smile to my face. Of course, 40% probabiliyy is a 60% likelihood that it will be less than 4". I'd say that 'coin-flip' (with a little weight to the lower) approach is fair enough at this point in time when small adjustments will have great impacts.

I'm not well-versed on the location of greater Shelburne, but if you're inside the green contour, they're giving you a 40-70% chance of at least 4". So stop Debbying. :)

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I'm not well-versed on the location of greater Shelburne, but if you're inside the green contour, they're giving you a 40-70% chance of at least 4". So stop Debbying. :)

I'm in the green area--about 8-10 miles south of the VT border. I'm not being a DD, just reading the map. it says "at least a 40% probaibility".

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