CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Tides are high this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 But but but, you do know the magic surrounding the rolling hills of Tolland don't you? Maybe they have weird trees to go along with their weird lapse rates. But seriously the hills are at peak color in CT into adjacent areas of Mass while the Valleys are still a couple days away at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Tides are high this weekend. I literally just LOLd at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 From 3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 No you're wrong. I was just up in Norfolk, Hartland, and Colebrook area yesterday and they are just about at peak. Those areas are colder, snowier, and get peak color earlier than you. Again don't agree..and I think some of the other hilltown CT posters would agree with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I literally just LOLd at work I don't know what it is...I can't stop laughing at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't know what it is...I can't stop laughing at that. It's hilarious... probably one of the funnier photoshop jobs. And yeah I don't know what about it that makes me laugh so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Again don't agree..and I think some of the other hilltown CT posters would agree with me Doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Per that map, Rhode Island seems to be pacing itself. Smart move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 From 3 days ago That map is not at all accurate at least with regards to the Berks. We have almost no leaves left on the trees. Well past peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 No you're wrong. I was just up in Norfolk, Hartland, and Colebrook area yesterday and they are just about at peak. Those areas are colder, snowier, and get peak color earlier than you. I drove the MassPike from 91 to western NY Sunday and back yesterday. I was amazed to see as many leaves on the trees at 1600-1700' at the high point of the pike as I did. I was expecting all bare, but they actually had more than me. Crazy. Latitude differences I imagine. I'll be content with an inch or two and for now, that's what I'm expecting. I'm not sure on timing, but it would be interesting if there were a delay on Friday. Our district is 400 sq miles (the largest in Mass) and pulls in folks from towns of 1800-2000'. I imagine those areas would do quite well. EDIT: just to clarify--the hills were definitely past peek (map fail) and many leaves were gone. I had expected bare ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 6z GFS is actually warmer at 850 than most of the ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ensembles say what storm for the weekend too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ensembles say what storm for the weekend too Did the ec ensembles have it? And its basically just the gfs without the second storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 HPC gives their assessment ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The weekend storm on the EC looks like it would have some heavy wind damage at the coast and in E MA. Definitely high impact for all verbatim since those that don't get clocked by the snow get the wind, it has some areas of the cape at 50-60 kt and E MA at 25-40 kt as the storm is bombing out per wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Did the ec ensembles have it? And its basically just the gfs without the second storm? Yes they did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Most recent HPC dumping the GFS: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD459 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 VALID 12Z SAT OCT 29 2011 - 12Z TUE NOV 01 2011 USED PRIMARILY THE 00Z/25 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS ANDPRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...WITH A MINOR INCORPORATION OF THE12Z/24 ECENS MEAN TO SOFTEN THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THEMAJOR SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...A POINT STILL VERY MUCH IN CONTENTION. THE GFS IS A FLAT...PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH THE WAVE EMERGINGFROM THE SOUTHERN STATES LATE IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE ECMWF ANDUKMET HAVE SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THISSYSTEM DURING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGHDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINSINLAND...WITH SNOW INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST DAY 4INTO EARLY DAY 5. THE PATTERN RETAINS A HIGH AMPLITUDE IN THEWAKE OF THE STORM FROM COAST TO COAST...WITH THE POLAR FRONTSUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 HPC gives their assessment ... AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 HPC gives their assessment ... Pulling for ski country, that map puts them in the crosshairs It will be fun to vicariously live thru the mtn web cams Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 HPC gives their assessment ... That brings a smile to my face. Of course, 40% probabiliyy is a 60% likelihood that it will be less than 4". I'd say that 'coin-flip' (with a little weight to the lower) approach is fair enough at this point in time when small adjustments will have great impacts. With regard to the weekend, there will be some significant adjustments from the GFS to show any love. Are there specific elements we should look to wrt how Thursday/night play out that should impact the storm/no-storm situation for Saturday? TIA. 45.8/40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That brings a smile to my face. Of course, 40% probabiliyy is a 60% likelihood that it will be less than 4". I'd say that 'coin-flip' (with a little weight to the lower) approach is fair enough at this point in time when small adjustments will have great impacts. With regard to the weekend, there will be some significant adjustments from the GFS to show any love. Are there specific elements we should look to wrt how Thursday/night play out that should impact the storm/no-storm situation for Saturday? TIA. 45.8/40 You may have some qpf issues with this storm.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You may have some qpf issues with this storm.....lol I've already locked the qpf issues in for Saturday. Congrats to me for being the warmest location west of 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That brings a smile to my face. Of course, 40% probabiliyy is a 60% likelihood that it will be less than 4". I'd say that 'coin-flip' (with a little weight to the lower) approach is fair enough at this point in time when small adjustments will have great impacts. I'm not well-versed on the location of greater Shelburne, but if you're inside the green contour, they're giving you a 40-70% chance of at least 4". So stop Debbying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm not well-versed on the location of greater Shelburne, but if you're inside the green contour, they're giving you a 40-70% chance of at least 4". So stop Debbying. I'm in the green area--about 8-10 miles south of the VT border. I'm not being a DD, just reading the map. it says "at least a 40% probaibility". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I've already locked the qpf issues in for Saturday. Congrats to me for being the warmest location west of 495. Your sensor should probably be further away from the heat vent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Actaully--this one makes me chuckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hopefully the 12z gfs latches on to the second storm today...otherwise if the euro shows it again and the gfs doesn't.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Your sensor should probably be further away from the heat vent.. I''ll move it further than the 400' it already is. Kevin insists my readings are low--lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hopefully the 12z gfs latches on to the second storm today...otherwise if the euro shows it again and the gfs doesn't.... Then it will be time to toss the GFS garbage in garbage out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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