CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Looks like the 6z NAM is a sloppy inch for KGAY and a trace for KTOL DUMBFOUNDED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 6z NAM continues the theme of a burst of snow as the low cranks with a band of frontogenesis behind the sfc low as it begins to crank off the coast. I think it's overdone since we're not exactly closing off a mid level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think storm 1 seems to be locking in a some sort of a flip to snow before ending for ORH on north and maybe down to the hills of nw CT and maybe nrn CT. Maybe a quick coating to an inch for ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think storm 1 seems to be locking in a some sort of a flip to snow before ending for ORH on north and maybe down to the hills of nw CT and maybe nrn CT. Maybe a quick coating to an inch for ORH? Yeah that sounds reasonable to me. If the storm was bombing out like the 12z NAM from yesterday I think we could all see something... now I see a few wet snow flakes an maybe a slushy accumulation up in the hills of ORH county and God's Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah that sounds reasonable to me. If the storm was bombing out like the 12z NAM from yesterday I think we could all see something... now I see a few wet snow flakes an maybe a slushy accumulation up in the hills of ORH county and God's Country. We'll have to see if the NAM is on to something. SREFs sort of have this too as an additional burst of QPF. That might enhance things a bit? Boy this weekend tho....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 We'll have to see if the NAM is on to something. SREFs sort of have this too as an additional burst of QPF. That might enhance things a bit? Boy this weekend tho....lol. I know... jesus. I don't know what to make of the NAM and SREF with that second burst. I'd like to see a strong mid level low close off but that doesn't seem to be happening. I wonder what the mechanism is for the trailing burst... I guess the sharpening 500mb vort max provides enough DCVA and there's enough lingering mid level frontogenesis to give us a burst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I know... jesus. I don't know what to make of the NAM and SREF with that second burst. I'd like to see a strong mid level low close off but that doesn't seem to be happening. I wonder what the mechanism is for the trailing burst... I guess the sharpening 500mb vort max provides enough DCVA and there's enough lingering mid level frontogenesis to give us a burst? Yeah the low is sort of elongated wsw-ene. I think that strong s/w rounding the base of the trough acts to do just what you described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Either way, congrats socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah the low is sort of elongated wsw-ene. I think that strong s/w rounding the base of the trough acts to do just what you described. Yeah it may be enough but these never really pan out as we want. If you're closing a sick 850/700 low then you can do it but in a situation like this it's never easy. Anyway I'm sort of over the Thursday event lol... on to Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Either way, congrats socks. Yeah Mt Socks could pull out an inch or two Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS maybe flips areas briefly to snow before ending it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah Mt Socks could pull out an inch or two Thursday 3-6"....I'm at 1300'. I probably wouldn't forecast more than 2-4" for the campus at this point given the warmer runs like the 18z GFS and 0z UKIE, but I like the hints of a CCB forming. Timing is absolutely perfect with the heaviest precipitation reaching us in the evening hours. 66 hour frame on the 6z GFS shows .5" QPF over the Berkshires extending towards the Monadnocks. Would be a monster hit here. Back to bed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 3-6"....I'm at 1300'. I probably wouldn't forecast more than 2-4" for the campus at this point given the warmer runs like the 18z GFS and 0z UKIE, but I like the hints of a CCB forming. Timing is absolutely perfect with the heaviest precipitation reaching us in the evening hours. 66 hour frame on the 6z GFS shows .5" QPF over the Berkshires extending towards the Monadnocks. Would be a monster hit here. Back to bed... The problem is it's not a CCB. If there was I'd agree with you. The mid level lows don't close off and we're left with a tongue of frontogenesis and some QG forcing as the shortwave slides through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The problem is it's not a CCB. If there was I'd agree with you. The mid level lows don't close off and we're left with a tongue of frontogenesis and some QG forcing as the shortwave slides through. I know it's not technically a CCB since we don't have the closed H7 and H85 lows, but it still seems as if the models are trending towards lingering more QPF behind the main storm, which starts out like a SWFE. The 6z GFS really blasts us Thursday night with that .5" contour over Western MA, and it looks as if little precipitation is wasted as rain since it is mostly a nighttime storm with the heaviest QPF behind the low. Overall, I'm liking the chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro and Nam/Sref's all give me at least an inch or 2 Thursday nite. This is just too good to be true And then the snow bomb this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The GFS wants no part of this weekend it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The GFS wants no part of this weekend it seems. Yeah no kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The GFS wants no part of this weekend it seems. Whereas the Euro goes nuclear. Hmmm ... who do I do with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The GFS wants no part of this weekend it seems. LOL..who cares though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I wonder if we'll see as many power outages in CT as we did in the Dec 73 icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I wonder if we'll see as many power outages in CT as we did in the Dec 73 icestorm If you got 6" in the valleys from the weekend storm it would produce significant damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 LOL..who cares though? Well it's possible it could go OTS. Rina also may have some sort of a say too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well it's possible it could go OTS. Rina also may have some sort of a say too. I do think the GFS may be too flat, but we are 5 days out in a rather volatile pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I do think the GFS may be too flat, but we are 5 days out in a rather volatile pattern. Euro ensembles and UK look decent so that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 If you got 6" in the valleys from the weekend storm it would produce significant damage I think even a couple inches of snow like 2-3 would do some damage. I remember Lundberg saying 2 inches in UNV 7 or 8 yrs ago caused all kinds of tree damage. Luckily the winds today will blow many of the leaves down and Friday also looks windy. Most of Interior CT is past peak now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think even a couple inches of snow like 2-3 would do some damage. I remember Lundberg saying 2 inches in UNV 7 or 8 yrs ago caused all kinds of tree damage. Luckily the winds today will blow many of the leaves down and Friday alos look windy. Most of Interior CT is past peak now Yeah I just posted that a couple days ago. 2" did tree damage that was relatively widepread throughout State College Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think even a couple inches of snow like 2-3 would do some damage. I remember Lundberg saying 2 inches in UNV 7 or 8 yrs ago caused all kinds of tree damage. Luckily the winds today will blow many of the leaves down and Friday also looks windy. Most of Interior CT is past peak now And no... most of interior CT is at peak right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 And no... most of interior CT is at peak right now. Maybe the hideous valley..but most rural areas and hills are well past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Maybe the hideous valley..but most rural areas and hills are well past No you're wrong. I was just up in Norfolk, Hartland, and Colebrook area yesterday and they are just about at peak. Those areas are colder, snowier, and get peak color earlier than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 No you're wrong. I was just up in Norfolk, Hartland, and Colebrook area yesterday and they are just about at peak. Those areas are colder, snowier, and get peak color earlier than you. But but but, you do know the magic surrounding the rolling hills of Tolland don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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