ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That algorithm is likely a more realistic depiction of what will happen in this system. Those 10"+ amounts are obscene...they just wont happen in October unless you get a UVV bomb at night with temps <32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 00z GFS came back to the rest of the pack...starts as a cold rain for most...then a flip to a nice burst of snow at the end...longer duration up around SW NH and NW MA...congrats Socks again? Every run has pretty much been congrats Socks. So I think that is the place to be right now for anyone who posts...I don't think anyone is at Mt. Snow in the S Greens. It looks like a couple inches her as it ends perhaps. Most of the interior elevated spots would see a burst of snow at the end. Best to the north in the Rt 2 to S NH region over to S VT of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sam, are you going home for this event? 1,000 feet in Keene looks pretty decent right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That algorithm is likely a more realistic depiction of what will happen in this system. Those 10"+ amounts are obscene...they just wont happen in October unless you get a UVV bomb at night with temps <32F. Yeah, I love the SPC SREF algorithms for winter weather. They are often much more realistic than what you can get anywhere else. Good luck up there, by the way. I may head up to Vermont Thursday to see if we can get anything good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah, I love the SPC SREF algorithms for winter weather. They are often much more realistic than what you can get anywhere else. Good luck up there, by the way. I may head up to Vermont Thursday to see if we can get anything good. Yeah, the model algorithms are usually awful. They are good at showing where the jackpot might be, but do not take the actual amounts verbatim. Visit Socks...just don't get a flat tire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 My quick thoughts just b/c I felt like doing so\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 My quick thoughts just b/c I felt like doing so\ Probably pretty good...if you held a gun to my head though I'd probably bring the 2-4" a tad south and max it out in the Monadnocks/ N ORH hills near the MA/NH border. That area seems to be the consistent jackpot on most runs...and even in the non-jackpot runs, they are close enough...they have been the consensus jackpot for 24-36 hours now..they share that distinction with NW MA high elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Probably pretty good...if you held a gun to my head though I'd probably bring the 2-4" a tad south and max it out in the Monadnocks/ N ORH hills near the MA/NH border. That area seems to be the consistent jackpot on most runs...and even in the non-jackpot runs, they are close enough...they have been the consensus jackpot for 24-36 hours now..they share that distinction with NW MA high elevations. When I first composed the map I actually had the 2-4'' line down there but then I backed off for some reason...if you look at where the 2-4'' contour bulges outward near the Berks it continued on northeast so it was a straight line. I think I meant to change something else but got distracted b/c I have friends over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Probably pretty good...if you held a gun to my head though I'd probably bring the 2-4" a tad south and max it out in the Monadnocks/ N ORH hills near the MA/NH border. That area seems to be the consistent jackpot on most runs...and even in the non-jackpot runs, they are close enough...they have been the consensus jackpot for 24-36 hours now..they share that distinction with NW MA high elevations. Things are looking decent here too. I'm still keeping expectations low and just hoping for at least a coating to transform the landscape from fall to winter even if it is only for a few days at most. Will, at what elevation would one start to have an advantage of any real importance? I'm only 600 feet so I know it's better than 100 but I'm just wondering if it would help in this situation much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sam, are you going home for this event? 1,000 feet in Keene looks pretty decent right now. I know! But I'm staying up at Plymouth... the local snow hole of NNE. I'll probably hear it from my parents if they get dumped on. My dad will not be happy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 if i were to get an inch of snow i would be happier then a pig in sh*t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 not bad for the valley!! Thursday Night: Rain likely before 3am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 46. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. Saturday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Things are looking decent here too. I'm still keeping expectations low and just hoping for at least a coating to transform the landscape from fall to winter even if it is only for a few days at most. Will, at what elevation would one start to have an advantage of any real importance? I'm only 600 feet so I know it's better than 100 but I'm just wondering if it would help in this situation much. You'll probably be fine there...but at Bow you are starting to get a bit far north for the best frontogensis and lift...if models shift north, you will be in prime spot. Even without it, I think you'll see some snow. 600 feet is probably good enough there with your latitude and the cold air seeping down. Its def better than 100 feet, there is absolutely no doubt about that. We'll see what the other models do here in the next hour or so...but that obviously doesn't mean its set in stone. These things always shift and people get married to one short term trend. But I'd feel good there at 600 feet for some measurable snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I know! But I'm staying up at Plymouth... the local snow hole of NNE. I'll probably hear it from my parents if they get dumped on. My dad will not be happy lol Wow, that might suck, lol. You might get a coating while your home gets 3-4" lol. 1,000 feet in Cheshire county is looking pretty damn good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wow, that might suck, lol. You might get a coating while your home gets 3-4" lol. 1,000 feet in Cheshire county is looking pretty damn good right now. lol yeah, in general it turns out Plymouth is terrible for snow. That's why last year was perfect: all the storms were over winter break while I was home As long as I see some flakes up here, I'll be satisfied. Anything sticking is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You'll probably be fine there...but at Bow you are starting to get a bit far north for the best frontogensis and lift...if models shift north, you will be in prime spot. Even without it, I think you'll see some snow. 600 feet is probably good enough there with your latitude and the cold air seeping down. Its def better than 100 feet, there is absolutely no doubt about that. We'll see what the other models do here in the next hour or so...but that obviously doesn't mean its set in stone. These things always shift and people get married to one short term trend. But I'd feel good there at 600 feet for some measurable snow right now. Nice, That sounds better than I thought. I never look to jackpot and it never happens here, so I'm more than happy with measurable snowfall before the calender turns to November. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Are people staying up for the Euro? I have an 8am class, but also some work that I can do now, so I'm debating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Are people staying up for the Euro? I have an 8am class, but also some work that I can do now, so I'm debating I have work at 11 AM and have to do online postings for craigslist at 9 AM but SCREW it...I'm staying up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Are people staying up for the Euro? I have an 8am class, but also some work that I can do now, so I'm debating Eh, another hour, I'm going to do it. I'm not obligated under contract to give anything to clients in October...so not work obligation, but I will stay up anyway. I like to give out tidbits in good faith, and favor is usually returned later on. Hopefully they won't kill me for a bust later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Are people staying up for the Euro? I have an 8am class, but also some work that I can do now, so I'm debating Why not? We've already made it this far, what's a little longer? 1st legit snowfall threat of the year is worth it imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Eh, another hour, I'm going to do it. I'm not obligated under contract to give anything to clients in October...so not work obligation, but I will stay up anyway. I like to give out tidbits in good faith, and favor is usually returned later on. Hopefully they won't kill me for a bust later. lol! Yeah, want to start off the season on good footing. I mean, I think forecasting accumulating snow in October is beating climo well enough as it is haha. I don't start until the week of Thanksgiving, but I'm using this event as a sort of test run for them, using a different forecast format than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 lol! Yeah, want to start off the season on good footing. I mean, I think forecasting accumulating snow in October is beating climo well enough as it is haha. I don't start until the week of Thanksgiving, but I'm using this event as a sort of test run for them, using a different forecast format than last year. NH DOT, good luck, lol. Cheshire county man, tell them they snow. They never quite got the message back in 2005, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 00z Ukie is a huge torch. Almost like the 18z GFS, but a bit south. Hard to see details because of no 6 hourly increments. But its def the warmest of the 00z suite so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 NH DOT, good luck, lol. Cheshire county man, tell them they snow. They never quite got the message back in 2005, lol. sooo true. Rt 9 was a disaster. For this one, I'm pretty much just saying a general 1-2" away from the coast, with emphasis on higher totals in the Monadnocks. I'm keeping an eye on the possibility of some enhancement towards the weak deformation across central-northern NH. That might be what gives Plymouth a little more hope, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 How is it that we're tracking this **** already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I had to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 How is it that we're tracking this **** already? I thought you moved from LI 5 years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GGEm finally moving north...but still not there..jackpots Kevin...I think this is a Monadnocks storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I thought you moved from LI 5 years ago? I just want the 12 Z euro to verify for Sunday. That would be the most amazing thing witnessed since the Hindenburg disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I just want the 12 Z euro to verify for Sunday. That would be the most amazing thing witnessed since the Hindenburg disaster. Lol, agreed...I'm not getting as much on that because I dryslot....how often can I say I don't get more than 6 or 8" of snow because I dryslot in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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