snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Will how does the NAM look down stream for the Saturday storm? It looks like heights are building out west and a second trough is deepening over the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 69h and 72h is an amazing difference. Wow. 72 hours from now it could be ripping snow outside my window. Question though: Twisterdata maps show my surface temp somewhere around 35-36F from 72h to 75h. Is that accurate? At 72 hours, it is 32F at 850mb (or roughly 4,500ft over your head).... so yeah, mid 30s seems about right if the lapse rate is 1F/1000ft EDIT... you're closer to -3C at 850 on the E-Wall maps at 72 so you're probably changing to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Use this for the NAM...it has better detail with 2m temps and gives every 1C at 850. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/etaloop.html Wow yeah... that looks a bit cooler than the NCEP images. Must be the better detail. Its a tad colder than I thought it was at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 At 72 hours, it is 32F at 850mb (or roughly 4,500ft over your head).... so yeah, mid 30s seems about right if the lapse rate is 1F/1000ft Thanks. I think at that point it might be ripping at 1000 ft at the airport, while I'm 80% snow, 20% rain, waiting for the complete flip. Who knows though. I'd lock in the nam though. I think even I'd get 2" on the grass out of that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Based off the NAM, it looks as if the southern greens could see 8"+ with central VT in the 4-7" range above, say 700ft. Even up to route 2 in VT could see 1-2" above 700ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wow yeah... that looks a bit cooler than the NCEP images. Must be the better detail. Its a tad colder than I thought it was at 72 hours. Yeah the NCEP images are trash compared to that...they are crude. This def performs much better with the elevation nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Look at those -30C 500mb temps behind this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Are we using the H85 0C line in this case? I've been using the -3C at 5,000ft and in that case BOS hits it at 81 hours. yeah, probably better choice.. but my weenie hat is on.. would need to look at those fancy charts to look at the freezing levels.. I forgot where we get those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'll take my 1" QPF almost all frozen up here and run with it, till the 6Z takes it back away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 This run does have some latitude temp gradients until it blows up se of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Man, that northern cutoff is sharp...0.00" qpf in Newport,VT while KLEB comes in with almost 1" holy sheeeet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah the NCEP images are trash compared to that...they are crude. This def performs much better with the elevation nuances. Dude check out these two 72 hour maps... look at the 850mb temp differences. Its not even close. NCEP has -3C just entering the East Slope while PSU has it along the Mass Pike from ORH to Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Dude check out these two 72 hour maps... look at the 850mb temp differences. Its not even close. NCEP has -3C just entering the East Slope while PSU has it along the Mass Pike from ORH to Springfield. I trust PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 00z MET is spitting out 35F/30F at 18z Thu for LCI. That's impressive for 10/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 EARLY START THIS YEAR!!!!!! Let the season begin. I've taken a long self imposed M.I.A. Shhh. I've taken on a bear, a huge learning curve with the beasts known as GEMPAK and GRADS. Good lord, learning shells, terminal scripts and all the formula's are incredible. Love Unix and programming. The GEMPAK program is amazing. I can see how all these websites with model outputs with amazing graphics are actually produced. I was hoping to have it running by now. It's close and all I can say is soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Congrats Socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Congrats Socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Congrats Socks. Congrats HubbDave. Oh man, what a weenie map. I'll take my 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Bullseye right over southern VT...where I'll be Saturday for my birthday, which is Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That map implies a certain toaster bath for a poster in ne ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 EARLY START THIS YEAR!!!!!! Let the season begin. I've taken a long self imposed M.I.A. Shhh. I've taken on a bear, a huge learning curve with the beasts known as GEMPAK and GRADS. Good lord, learning shells, terminal scripts and all the formula's are incredible. Love Unix and programming. The GEMPAK program is amazing. I can see how all these websites with model outputs with amazing graphics are actually produced. I was hoping to have it running by now. It's close and all I can say is soon. Good to see you back Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Jay is probably wishing he was back at prep school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Congrats Socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Congrats Socks. I'm locking in my 12-14" right now and running with it lol. But I will take my 41 F rain ending as a decent snow shower though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 not making it to the GFS tonight, tomorrow for sure.. Good Luck all! see you tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The sun is pretty weak now ..I think we flip to snow early afternoon on Thursday if you buy the NAM. -3C 850 that point and dropping. quote name='weatherwiz' timestamp='1319510926' post='1057223'] Good to see the timing of this more towards the night rather than during the day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Trees are still have about 50% of leaves on them here in Central NH. I would guess there could be some power issues further south if this was to verify. Perhaps that will be the thing that this early system is remembered for in S NH/VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That map implies a certain toaster bath for a poster in ne ct. Ray dropping the toaster in the tub with Kevin in it, lol. He gets like 6-8" while Kevin gets 2" of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 EARLY START THIS YEAR!!!!!! Let the season begin. I've taken a long self imposed M.I.A. Shhh. I've taken on a bear, a huge learning curve with the beasts known as GEMPAK and GRADS. Good lord, learning shells, terminal scripts and all the formula's are incredible. Love Unix and programming. The GEMPAK program is amazing. I can see how all these websites with model outputs with amazing graphics are actually produced. I was hoping to have it running by now. It's close and all I can say is soon. Yo bro, have fun with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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