Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Preliminary sketch I'll take my coating I guess, but hoping for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 How much, Will? They probably give you 4-8" or something...its hard to do a "mean" on the SREF because of the different spreads and which runs have more qpf and which are colder but perhaps less qpf. The probs will tell us a bit more when they come out in a bit on ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think that is a decent first call Sam...southern Greens is probably the best spot right now in terms of anyone seeing 4"+. Thanks Will. There could definitely be higher totals in SNE, if things play out right. There could also be nothing. It's conveniently probably the most uncertain area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Thanks Will. There could definitely be higher totals in SNE, if things play out right. There could also be nothing. It's conveniently probably the most uncertain area I'd def play it conservative here for now. There's too much that can go wrong that prevents us from seeing much more than 1-3". I agree that if it goes perfect we could have an elevation 3-6"er here or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'd love to lock in Sam's map right now. I'd be fine with 1-2" of slop. 00z Nam out to 21! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The SREF looks like a scenario where this part of the Ct Valley sees a coating of snow but just a few hundred feet higher (600'+) actually gets 1-3". It seems reasonable that pre-dawn friday snowing imby w/ a coating but walking a mile up the road (300' el. gain) with the dog and seeing everything plastered. Need some 30+dbz rates otherwise I can see being shadowed out of the heavier precip and just watching mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Guys remember this is the storm threat thread...please keep the discussion to that. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hey Will...we need to have a snow party/SNE G2G on top of Asnebumskit Hill on Thurs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'd love to lock in Sam's map right now. I'd be fine with 1-2" of slop. 00z Nam out to 21! I like the detail in it. Nice job Sam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SREF snow probs...best S VT, GC, N ORH county, and SW NH Monadnocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Decent cold after these get done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wow, those are nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Been a while since those maps were busted out Nice 30% chance of 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Keeping expectations in check but Will's possible 1-3" seems reasonable. I just want to run naked screaming in the first flakes of the season. This is gonna be a big season here. ya think?lol They have made me the monster I am. [/b] Been keeping the buzz going all summer Ginx, I'll wear the lampshade first. Parrrrrtaaaaaayyy!!!! The second storm is intriguing. Cranky tonight, heard something pop in my surgically repaired shoulder moving a couch. Think we will be busy arranging parties again. Those late arrivals are always welcome. Looks like we have our first costume party ever. Let's see if I can guess some. Those who should get substantial snow are listed SnowNH- hot dog with mustard HubbDave- easy. Hunchback of Notre Dame Powdahfreak- The Ecola Yoddler dude Wxwatcher- Sam I Am Dendrite- Grinch WxgeneNH- The Old Man of the Mountain EEK- a Palm Tree Dryslut- a biker chick Mainejayhawk- Eric the Red Mekster- Happy Gilmore SkiMrg - Freddie Kreuger Will- Josh Beckett, beer in glove, KFC in the other hand The rest of us are left with envy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wow that is actually pretty damn sick. Was going to look at the SREF's but didn't. Will be interesting to see if we can get the NAM to show something similar, especially for some snow down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The second storm is intriguing. Cranky tonight, heard something pop in my surgically repaired shoulder moving a couch. Think we will busy arranging parties again. Those late arrivals are always welcome. Looks like we have our first costume party ever. Let's see if I can guess some. Those who should get substantial snow are listed SnowNH- hot dog with mustard HubbDave- easy. Hunchback of Notre Dame Powdahfreak- The Ecola Yoddler dude Wxwatcher- Sam I Am Dendrite- Grinch WxgeneNH- The Old Man of the Mountain EEK- a Palm Tree Dryslut- a biker chick Mainejayhawk- Eric the Red Mekster- Happy Gilmore SkiMrg - Freddie Kreuger Will- Josh Beckett, beer in glove, KFC in the other hand The rest of us are left with envy I'm rooting for some to get snow. Lets make this interesting...so tired of the pattern as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SREF snow probs...best S VT, GC, N ORH county, and SW NH Monadnocks Those aren't too bad at all. I'd like to be Pete right now. I think if I had to pick one spot for 3"+, it would be there. Maybe near socks as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SREF snow probs...best S VT, GC, N ORH county, and SW NH Monadnocks That's a Moneypitmike jackpot at 1,000ft on the VT/MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SREF snow probs...best S VT, GC, N ORH county, and SW NH Monadnocks the 8+ and 12+ don't make sense, you have some spots that have a higher percentage of 12+ than 8+ is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 My brother is going as Lackey same as beckett but with divorcd papers This could be (doubtful) my best October snowstorm. I think my area (Foxboro at the time) only got 1" in 1979 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 the 8+ and 12+ don't make sense, you have some spots that have a higher percentage of 12+ than 8+ is that right? Some of those weird blobs are erroneous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It seems every single run for the past couple runs, the NAM has strengthened that initial band of precip early Wednesday. I wonder if that is taking some of the energy away from the Thursday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Those aren't too bad at all. I'd like to be Pete right now. I think if I had to pick one spot for 3"+, it would be there. Maybe near socks as well. I honestly think its MPM who is probably the most concerned (about QPF, haha) but in the best spot there at 1K on the VT/MA border. I'd give him the nudge over Nate but Rindge and Pete have another 300-400ft on MPM. Hmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 the 8+ and 12+ don't make sense, you have some spots that have a higher percentage of 12+ than 8+ is that right? Some error in those. Always happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 the 8+ and 12+ don't make sense, you have some spots that have a higher percentage of 12+ than 8+ is that right? Ignore the little bullseyes on the 8"+ and 12"+...those are errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 My brother is going as Lackey same as beckett but with divorcd papers This could be (doubtful) my best October snowstorm. I think my area (Foxboro at the time) only got 1" in 1979 Should have been there 2 yrs ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Dendrite- Grinch Taking the bait. You obviously know nothing about me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I honestly think its MPM who is probably the most concerned (about QPF, haha) but in the best spot there at 1K on the VT/MA border. I'd give him the nudge over Nate but Rindge and Pete have another 300-400ft on MPM. Hmmmm... Rindge has both latitude and elevation on MPM...he loses a slight bit on longititude, but I don't think that will make up for the other two. They could be close. It might just come down to who gets luckier on a little mesoband of heavier precip which always helps in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm rooting for some to get snow. Lets make this interesting...so tired of the pattern as of late. Forgot Tip, going as a Met with a shirt that says trust me.... Pretty sure it's a lock someone in our core group sees snow. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Those aren't too bad at all. I'd like to be Pete right now. I think if I had to pick one spot for 3"+, it would be there. Maybe near socks as well. SW NH Seems like even a better bet than Pete for this system the way it looks right now. Looks to me like the Monads have the best shot at heavy precip and cold enough temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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