HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Matty Noyes weighs in: Though it's not quite a "lock," it's looking like at least a bit of snow should fall in New England late Thursday into Thursday night. It's important to note that this won't be the case for all of New England, certainly, but with cool air draining south from Canada on an active northerly wind, and a wave of low pressure rippling along a slowing front draped off the South Coast, this does put moisture and cold air on a collision course late Thursday. The biggest question is: does enough cold air arrive before the moisture starts to pull away? Though right now my best estimate is that at least some snowflakes will fly in Central/Southern Vermont, and parts of Central New Hampshire - with the highest chance in elevated terrain - I am very aware that a slightly faster retreat of moisture to the south will negate this potential, leaving the cold air just a few hours too late to create snow. As for chances of accumulating snow, the lower elevations and valleys have quite a few factors working against anything significant, namely the warm ground, relatively warm antecedent air, and the need for heavy precipitation rates to overcome these two factors. Nonetheless, it's something for us to watch, and as you can see by the image of the RPM 12km computer guidance product I've included in this post, the potential is there for a winter preview. We'll keep you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't really watch TV/News Weather forecasts. There's really no point if I read what mets post here. I mean, are the TV mets going to tell me anything different than like Scott or Will? If anything the tv mets are more conservative and are crappy to watch. Well there are times to be conservative. That storm back in early Feb sure was a good time to go that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 With 00z tonight I'd like to see the models start to focus on the second storm. While the first storm would be nice, and I'd certainly take 1" of slop over nothing, I'd much rather take my chances of getting a huge bomb with damage everywhere from heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Well there are times to be conservative. That storm back in early Feb sure was a good time to go that route. I really just meant they tell me nothing new than what I already learned from on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Will and I had some thoughts about how this will play out. It will be interesting to see if we can get the moisture well into the poleward side of the front. These anafrontal type deals with a low developing along it can have more of an angled frontal slope and that s/w moving into the area is allowing the mid level frontogenesis to take that gradient and squeeze it pretty far into the colder air. Of course if the GFS has a say or the wave gets completely crushed than forget it, but I'm just as interested as anyone to see how it plays out..even if I miss out on any flakes. GFS still delivers snow to a good chunk of the NNE crowd... MaineJayHawk, Dryslot, Dendrite, Allenson, myself, etc... however the crushed wave doesn't hit anyone. It would preferable that someone gets snow as opposed to the crushed wave, though I know a lot of the SNE mets would lose interest quickly if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 With 00z tonight I'd like to see the models start to focus on the second storm. While the first storm would be nice, and I'd certainly take 1" of slop over nothing, I'd much rather take my chances of getting a huge bomb with damage everywhere from heavy snow. Euro showed that we can have both at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 With 00z tonight I'd like to see the models start to focus on the second storm. While the first storm would be nice, and I'd certainly take 1" of slop over nothing, I'd much rather take my chances of getting a huge bomb with damage everywhere from heavy snow. I need to go to bed soon, don't think I can make the 0z GFS. The 18z had such a dramatic shift in the H5 vort that I am really unsure what to think. It seems as if Central VT is probably the best place to be sitting right now...I wish I were slightly further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I need to go to bed soon, don't think I can make the 0z GFS. The 18z had such a dramatic shift in the H5 vort that I am really unsure what to think. It seems as if Central VT is probably the best place to be sitting right now...I wish I were slightly further west. Put it this way, you could be in dobbs ferry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro showed that we can have both at 12z Sounds good to me. I need to go to bed soon, don't think I can make the 0z GFS. The 18z had such a dramatic shift in the H5 vort that I am really unsure what to think. It seems as if Central VT is probably the best place to be sitting right now...I wish I were slightly further west. I'll trade places with you, hows that? Socks going to bed at 9:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Bruchard going balls to the wall with his call. This map is just absolutely crazy to throw out day 3 on t.v...hype baby hype! That map is way too straightforward for a highly uncertain event in late October. Yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS still delivers snow to a good chunk of the NNE crowd... MaineJayHawk, Dryslot, Dendrite, Allenson, myself, etc... however the crushed wave doesn't hit anyone. It would preferable that someone gets snow as opposed to the crushed wave, though I know a lot of the SNE mets would lose interest quickly if the GFS is correct. You'll probably get some snow either way from upslope on one of these days with a NW cold flow...its certainly more anomalous to see accumulating snow down in SNE in October. I won't be totally shocked if the 18z GFS is right, climo kind of likes further north this time of year, but on the other hand we are inside of 72 hours and its way north of other superior guidance and an outlier, so its hard to take too seriously. It would be a big score for the GFS though if its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wow SREFs bumped North and are pretty wet for Thursday They look pretty damn cold at 850 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'll trade places with you, hows that? Socks going to bed at 9:30? I think the Monadnocks are in decent shape, but we don't have a real arctic airmass with the relatively neutral EPO pattern and a vortex over the Canadian Archipelago. The storm needs to bring a sufficient amount of CAA, and to slow down with the deeper phasing so it occurs at night, as Will and I were discussing. I could see this basically being a slush event although I'm starting to think we're near guaranteed a coating at 1300' on the campus of Hampshire Country School. The second storm/weekend storm might have better potential in terms of cold air because we do get somewhat of a feed from the PV over the Northwest Territories. I am exhausted from working with special needs kids all day...don't think I can stay up. I was on homework duty tonight so after teaching a full day of school, I went into the dorms for 2 hours in order to help with assignments, and I also ran 5 miles before dinner. My body needs a nice long sleep, although I can barely rationalize going to bed at 10pm when I don't have to awake until 8:15am, seems sort of silly. I do realize though that my job requires a lot of rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You'll probably get some snow either way from upslope on one of these days with a NW cold flow...its certainly more anomalous to see accumulating snow down in SNE in October. I won't be totally shocked if the 18z GFS is right, climo kind of likes further north this time of year, but on the other hand we are inside of 72 hours and its way north of other superior guidance and an outlier, so its hard to take too seriously. It would be a big score for the GFS though if its right. I dunno... the forecaster in me is saying that north of I-90 in SNE sees at least a light accumulation. For folks at the mountain and operations, I'm going with breezy, mostly cloudy, with a chance of snow showers or flurries with only trace to dusting amounts. With continued construction of our new FourRunner Quad chairlift, this is actually the news Operations staff wants to hear. I'd hate to start the season with a blown 72 hour forecast. There's just too much model consensus right now to even consider the GFS. A quick look at a lot of ensembles, SREFs, even the off-hour old ETA runs, etc all say the GFS is out to lunch. The weenie in me would love it, but the forecaster in me says toss it. RE: the upslope... there's really no moisture to our NW and no way of advecting it in if that storm cuts way south on Thursday. Thus, probably only flurries or a snow shower and the trace-dusting amount. Still would be nice just to have flakes in the air; that's a start I guess, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SREFs did bump north and there is spread to the north meaning there are probably some members further north. Looks like between 21z and 00z ORH flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SREFs did bump north and there is spread to the north meaning there are probably some members further north. Looks like between 21z and 00z ORH flips. Sweet. Is it colder as weenieNH says? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SREFs did bump north and there is spread to the north meaning there are probably some members further north. Looks like between 21z and 00z ORH flips. ASNHT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sweet. Is it colder as weenieNH says? No the wave is north, so the temps aloft are warmer too. However they are a little more juicy with that bump north. This probably would be worth some acc for Will and esp just north of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I have the league cross country meet at 3pm on Thursday. Yikes. Forecast: Rain of varying intensities, with temperatures steady in the upper 30s. Cloudy, with a chance of snow mixing in as the meet progresses. There is a 100% chance of a horrible race and a miserable crowd if it happens, with a 75% chance of cancellation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 No the wave is north, so the temps aloft are warmer too. However they are a little more juicy with that bump north. This probably would be worth some acc for Will and esp just north of him. Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Preliminary sketch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I have the league cross country meet at 3pm on Thursday. Yikes. Forecast: Rain of varying intensities, with temperatures steady in the upper 30s. Cloudy, with a chance of snow mixing in as the meet progresses. There is a 100% chance of a horrible race and a miserable crowd if it happens, with a 75% chance of cancellation. Seriously they would cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hi Enjoy your 1-3" at your house. Coating at your school gone by the AM commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 No the wave is north, so the temps aloft are warmer too. However they are a little more juicy with that bump north. This probably would be worth some acc for Will and esp just north of him. Yeah it has a lot of moisture on the backside of the system...but it def looks like Socks in Rindge would be the jackpot on the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Preliminary sketch You forgot 8-12" over West Chesterfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Seriously they would cancel? They cancel meets if its down-pouring, and already have a scheduled date for Friday if need be. They might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Enjoy your 1-3" at your house. Coating at your school gone by the AM commute. October 1979 Redux (with a better winter I hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think that is a decent first call Sam...southern Greens is probably the best spot right now in terms of anyone seeing 4"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah it has a lot of moisture on the backside of the system...but it def looks like Socks in Rindge would be the jackpot on the SREFs. How much, Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Anyone who has clear sky, looks north, Aurora sightings. Not me too many trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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