HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Very true, my uncle lives in Altoona said snow accumulated very quickly around parts of Johnstown and in Altoona in elevation. Dynamics can overcome many things. Yeah...really has to come down viciously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 GFS is kind of on its own right now...it was for several runs previously too until it lined up with guidance at 06z and 12z today only to go back at 18z. It might be right, but with 3 days to go, I know my money will be closer to the Euro/ensembles/consensus. Its not an easy forecast though with multiple moving parts. Its not like a straight one and done clipper or straight normal SWFE (which are hard enough to forecast as it is). I think this GFS op run is farther north with the 0C 850 line than any EC ensemble member...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I know it's the Snogaps, but you have just love the idea so early in this season.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah...really has to come down viciously Or get the sfc temp below freezing, which is hard to do in October, but we did it on Oct 16, 2009...it never snowed that heavy, but we got an and a half with steady light to mod snow and temps around 31F. The Oct 18, 2009 event we had to use insane dynamics to get us to stick at 33F...it was daylight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well obviously it can happen (see Oct 2009) but that is one of many things working against us Climo is a b**ch but I will not be surprised if you get accumulating snow. If I see flakes ,cool makes my Trace prediction date good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Or get the sfc temp below freezing, which is hard to do in October, but we did it on Oct 16, 2009...it never snowed that heavy, but we got an and a half with steady light to mod snow and temps around 31F. The Oct 18, 2009 event we had to use insane dynamics to get us to stick at 33F...it was daylight too. OT but is there info out there about Oct '79? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah...really has to come down viciously Usually if it flips to snow, it probably has enough dynamics for it to come down hard enough to stick. Unless it's like 35 or so..it probably would stick. Tough to get very light snows in October since usually the reason why we have snow in the first place, is because the precip rates allow for some dynamic cooling. Not always, but most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Climo is a b**ch but I will not be surprised if you get accumulating snow. If I see flakes ,cool makes my Trace prediction date good. You crushed me last fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Usually if it flips to snow, it probably has enough dynamics for it to come down hard enough to stick. Unless it's like 35 or so..it probably would stick. Tough to get very light snows in October since usually the reason why we have snow in the first place, is because the precip rates allow for some dynamic cooling. Not always, but most of the time. Ahhh. Interesting. The Oct snows I recall were certainly not light mood snows Where is that SNO fella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Ahhh. Interesting. The Oct snows I recall were certainly not light mood snows Where is that SNO fella Probably on vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 No but I can post a calendar This is one of the funniest posts in this thread in response to why won't it snow, the 850s look below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Ahhh. Interesting. The Oct snows I recall were certainly not light mood snows Where is that SNO fella Well you can have a really cold airmass like 10/16/09. Even I had a virtual dry snow in Andover. You want need high rates than, but in general..usually a flip to snow means some good rates. It might not be 10:1, but wet snow likes to cling to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Numerous deaths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I can't believe the GFS ensembles take it over LI..... Whats that like 700 miles NW of the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I can't believe the GFS ensembles take it over LI..... Whats that like 700 miles NW of the OP? No the 18z GFS op did too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 No the 18z GFS op did too. Ohhh for the first storm? I thought that was for the second storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ohhh for the first storm? I thought that was for the second storm.. 18Z GFS has no second storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Numerous deaths Hundreds of body bags, hundreds Nice cold rain, oops, Thats the H5 map...lol Crippling snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 No the 18z GFS op did too. lock step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hundreds of body bags, hundreds Crippling snow for you Yes it was, Surface low tracked over the outer elbow into the eastern GOM bombing to 980mb, I would probably want to take my chances with the 1st system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 This is great....October 30th lol.... Pure 3X right there, that's tough to get Mid Jan around here , oops forgot about last year already. My party is a lonely affair without funk master Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Let's not post the pay Accuweather Pro images on this forum. The H5 vort maps can be found elsewhere on non-pay sites so try to stick with those. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Let's not post the pay Accuweather Pro images on this forum. The H5 vort maps can be found elsewhere on non-pay sites so try to stick with those. Thanks. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I seriously hope nobody ends up taking a bath with the toaster if none of these storms pan out, it's only October. That would be like me hurling a rope around my neck, attaching it to a tree and jumping just b/c the Bruins are off to a slow start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sorry No harm no foul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I seriously hope nobody ends up taking a bath with the toaster if none of these storms pan out, it's only October. That would be like me hurling a rope around my neck, attaching it to a tree and jumping just b/c the Bruins are off to a slow start. Bruins lose another game i am going to kick the chair out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Bruins lose another game i am going to kick the chair out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Dead zone is still 1hr later now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I seriously hope nobody ends up taking a bath with the toaster if none of these storms pan out, it's only October. That would be like me hurling a rope around my neck, attaching it to a tree and jumping just b/c the Bruins are off to a slow start. Oh.... ummm I will go unplug mine and put it back in the cupboard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I seriously hope nobody ends up taking a bath with the toaster if none of these storms pan out, it's only October. That would be like me hurling a rope around my neck, attaching it to a tree and jumping just b/c the Bruins are off to a slow start. Get me this lightbulb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.