dendrite Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm actually pretty confident that Kevin will see snow before the weekend is over, whether from the first wave or the second Me too. I think he'll get some from storm 1...at the least some 33-34F flakes to finish with maybe a chance for a little more.I'm losing confidence a bit for you and I to see anything other than -SN melting on contact or a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Me too. I think he'll get some from storm 1...at the least some 33-34F flakes to finish with maybe a chance for a little more. I'm losing confidence a bit for you and I to see anything other than -SN melting on contact or a dusting. Thanks for bringing some reality back to the downers and folks not understanding the setup/elevation etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Me too. I think he'll get some from storm 1...at the least some 33-34F flakes to finish with maybe a chance for a little more. I'm losing confidence a bit for you and I to see anything other than -SN melting on contact or a dusting. I agree. I mean, it's only been this recent model suite, but it's a convincing trend. Like I said though, this is the range when things get shaken up a bit. For storm 1, I'll probably say 1-2" for southwest and south-central NH, with up to 4" in the Monadnocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Me too. I think he'll get some from storm 1...at the least some 33-34F flakes to finish with maybe a chance for a little more. I'm losing confidence a bit for you and I to see anything other than -SN melting on contact or a dusting. IDK... I can see this creeping back up north giving you snow and me rain to snow as well. Just a lot of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Thanks for bringing some reality back to the downers and folks not understanding the setup/elevation etc.. You'll probably be sleeping when the snow hits and not even know whether it snowed or not since there won't be accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Storm 1 is going the wrong way up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I agree. I mean, it's only been this recent model suite, but it's a convincing trend. Like I said though, this is the range when things get shaken up a bit. For storm 1, I'll probably say 1-2" for southwest and south-central NH, with up to 4" in the Monadnocks Keep an eye on the track/strength of the vortmax...we see models screw up the qpf a lot on these...esp in the 72h time frame. Remember when a lot of models (esp the NAM) would have a qpf max in NYC in overrunning/SWFEs with a vortmax track over LI and the south coast? Something to consider. If the vortmax is weak and diffuse, then it can be suppressed, but if it has any potency at all, then I'd keep an eye on it and be a bit skeptical of the qpf field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Thanks for bringing some reality back to the downers and folks not understanding the setup/elevation etc.. Sure you have a shot to see a few flakes towards the end but I doubt you accumulate anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 There's alot more to getting snow than just 850 temps. I know. That's why I asked. Sorry for asking a weather-related question on a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I know. That's why I asked. Sorry for asking a weather-related question on a weather board. Just joking Ryan's response was awesome though. I really wish the wundermaps showed 925mb temps for the euro instead of just winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Harvey more intrigued with storm 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Funny... if things break right we would end up with the greatest snowfall depth on the ground in the northern Hemisphere below 10,000 feet elevation, for the 40-45 latitudes, by next Monday. In fact, one must wonder how deep the snow really is up there where it is dusty cold in the deep polar field... It pixie dusts 24-hours a day in that stuff but that ain't 20 inches worth... That Pro-AccuWeather service is putting out 18-24" for a large chunk of interior SNE through N PA for the 7-day total. ...I have NO idea if that is a trustworthy source... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Lets rip this frontal system through on Thursday, lay the foundation for a nice possibly historic snowstorm in sne on sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Funny... if things break right we would end up with the greatest snowfall depth on the ground in the northern Hemisphere below 10,000 feet elevation, for the 40-45 latitudes, by next Monday. In fact, one must wonder how deep the snow really is up there where it is dusty cold in the deep polar field... It pixie dusts 24-hours a day in that stuff but that ain't 20 inches worth... That Pro-AccuWeather service is putting out 18-24" for a large chunk of interior SNE through N PA for the 7-day total. ...I have NO idea if that is a trustworthy source... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z GFS has reverted back to yesterday's solutions...north and progressive. Torch for all of us in SNE until the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Pretty warm initially in SNE with system 1 on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Pretty warm initially in SNE with system 1 on the GFS I think the models must have initialzed in the month of October, this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think the models must have initialzed in the month of October, this run. yeah, 18z sucks anyway right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think the models must have initialzed in the month of October, this run. you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 if you look at the 3 hr euro precip maps from wunderground, there's sort of a dry slot over n/c connecticut. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z GFS has reverted back to yesterday's solutions...north and progressive. Torch for all of us in SNE until the very end. Definitely more amplified, giving a notably strong surface circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think it's possible Ray sees his first coating before Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Funny... if things break right we would end up with the greatest snowfall depth on the ground in the northern Hemisphere below 10,000 feet elevation, for the 40-45 latitudes, by next Monday. In fact, one must wonder how deep the snow really is up there where it is dusty cold in the deep polar field... It pixie dusts 24-hours a day in that stuff but that ain't 20 inches worth... That Pro-AccuWeather service is putting out 18-24" for a large chunk of interior SNE through N PA for the 7-day total. ...I have NO idea if that is a trustworthy source... It is trustworthy, you can trust it to be way to high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 warmer and faster at 78hrs, can someone point out if this is what we want for the second storm? I remember last year we went back and forth and wanting to get the 1st system out of the way, bringing colder air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nice to check in on things to find 27 pages of posts. Always a good sign wrt winter storms. It's great how things can go from weenie orgasm (12z runs) to flacid dejection with the 18z. What will the 00z run bring? For sh*ts and giggles, I might stay up for the NAM. 50.5/46 off a high of 51.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Definitely more amplified, giving a notably strong surface circulation Probably going to have a negative effect with storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 if you look at the 3 hr euro precip maps from wunderground, there's sort of a dry slot over n/c connecticut. lol from the day 5 bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The s/w on the models seems like it would argue for something closer to the 18z GFS, Pretty big displacement between the surface low and 500 s/w. Might indicate how the low level baroclinic zone is being shoved south and the euro resolution is seeing this, but something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Probably going to have a negative effect with storm 2 I'm not sure yet. The second s/w still looks stronger than in previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The s/w on the models seems like it would argue for something closer to the 18z GFS, Pretty big displacement between the surface low and 500 s/w. Might indicate how the low level baroclinic zone is being shoved south and the euro resolution is seeing this, but something to think about. It is also why the euro has a mid level deformation and frontogenesis zone much farther north than you would think..hence that ribbon of QPF I mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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