Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah he first system is flat and leaves a powderkeg for the second low. The euro ensembles show the op run as one of the farthest nw solutions fwiw. Given the dynamics in place and the gulf stream gun powder lurking...I wouldn't be shocked if something like the euro op were to happen. Not saying it will.....but it would not surprise me. Exactly - good Met logic right there! Dec 2005 split the thermal ribbon along the LI Sound. Big mid level wind max riding just N of the unusually strong baroclinic axis led to upright frontal slopes in the 500-700mb levels. UVV over the top triggered one hell of a delta-Q. All that rising air cause in-rushing jet response and that packed the thermal gradient even more. That was a feedback mechanic that allowed the NAM's superior grid processing to pick up on the NW storm track compared to the erstwhile SE runners. By the way, as those UVVs punched a hole in the tropopause, triggering a fold, and then 110mph wind gusts in a kind of thermal wind, Wreck Of The Edmond Fitzgerald style underbelly restoring force raged... but that's 0T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro ensembles are se of the BM fwiw with that second low. what's it like for thu/fri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Exactly - good Met logic right there! Dec 2005 split the thermal ribbon along the LI Sound. Big mid level wind max riding just N of the unusually strong baroclinic axis led to upright frontal slopes in the 500-700mb levels. UVV over the top triggered one hell of a delta-Q. All that rising air cause in-rushing jet response and that packed the thermal gradient even more. By the way, as those UVVs punched a hole in the tropopause, triggering a fold, and then 110mph wind gusts in a kind of thermal wind, Wreck Of The Edmond Fitzgerald style underbelly restoring force raged... but that's 0T haha - whenever anyone makes reference to 12/9/05 and asks what it was like, i always think of that scene in twister when the dumb reporter lady asks everyone what an F5 would be like and the whole table goes silent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 out to 54 hours, nam looks stronger with the srn stream system and is holding back more energy to the W like GFS 1000-500 thickness a tad higher in NE at that time, but falling just to the W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 New BOX discussion is awesome...everyone should read it. I'll post the best part here. AS FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF OFFER THE POTENTIALFOR 6+ INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND SOUTHERN NHTHU/THU NIGHT. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE HAVE TO RESPECT THEFLATTER AND FASTER GFS/GEFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS QPFAND SNOWFALL. NEVERTHELESS IT/S STILL 72-84 HRS OUT SO WE MUST LEAVETHE DOOR OPEN FOR THIS SCENARIO AND OTHER SOLUTIONS/POSSIBILITIESSUCH AS SOMETHING CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH A STORM TRACK OVER OR NORTHOF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD YIELD A WARMER SOLUTION. HOWEVER ATTHIS TIME RANGE ITS FAIR TO SAY THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR ANACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM looks to get SNE/CNE good...colder run again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 haha - whenever anyone makes reference to 12/9/05 and asks what it was like, i always think of that scene in twister when the dumb reporter lady asks everyone what an F5 would be like and the whole table goes silent. 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Just read through 23 pages of awesomeness Laptop rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Just read through 23 pages of awesomeness Laptop rising Enjoy your snow day Friday. J/K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 BOX on board for snow for many AMOUT .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... *** ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THU/THU NIGHT AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND *** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z nam looks cold to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z nam looks cold to me. cause it is...i think messenger might end with flakes if that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 By the way...and OT.... I was doing Disk Golf Sunday morning wearing my favorite shirt that Kevin is jealous over to the point of almost gayness...when this dude walked up and was like all "Woa, where did you get that t-shirt".... Turned out he works at NWS Headquarters down Camp Spring Maryland; guess what his job title was? Forecast Verifications Division... ( lol ) that's what he called it. His job, as he mused, was to course through all the busted NWS calls. I joked that he was the Meteorological equivalent to Internal Affairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 cause it is...i think messenger might end with flakes if that verifies I think I might flip to snow late afternoon on Thursday if that verified. lol. Go Nam or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 haha - whenever anyone makes reference to 12/9/05 and asks what it was like, i always think of that scene in twister when the dumb reporter lady asks everyone what an F5 would be like and the whole table goes silent. lol that's a great analogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 BOX on board for snow for many AMOUT .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... *** ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THU/THU NIGHT AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND FOR AREAS NORTH OF CT*** Sure is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z NAM looks like a cold rain to me for most places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM was good from Union CT on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The nam is also much faster then the euro...everything seems to be out of the area by 00z Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The 12z JMA has the initial secondary low slightly further north than the other models but it also develops a Strong Nor'easter with the left over energy across the region, similar to the Euro. Interesting developments to say the least. Exact track remains to be unseen but the possibility is def. there for a powerful powerhouse storm. The NAO/AO are slightly positive around this time frame with a slightly positive PNA and no 50/50 Low in place with a decent HP anomaly across Northern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z NAM looks like a cold rain to me for most places Yea I think it just ruins the chances for places in NH and VT and ME to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z NAM looks like a cold rain to me for most places NAM was good from Union CT on north. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 LOL. The 2M temps are warmer this run and the storm is not as strong... less northerly ageostrophic flow and a warmer boundary layer. -2 or -3c at 850 may not cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROBNE_15z/probsnwloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The 2M temps are warmer this run and the storm is not as strong... less northerly ageostrophic flow and a warmer boundary layer. -2 or -3c at 850 may not cut it. It's probably only a really good clocking above 1200'. I'm not sure I can handle only MRG getting decent accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The 2M temps are warmer this run and the storm is not as strong... less northerly ageostrophic flow and a warmer boundary layer. -2 or -3c at 850 may not cut it. Yeah...I didn't see the 12z...but it seemed cool to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think the caveat Thursday is if the storm is way too flat. But even on the NAM, the thicknesses get low enough for a flip and a nice thermal ribbon would create one of the bands maybe 60 miles wide of decent QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Overall trend is definitely in the direction of suppression for the first wave. We are also in the period when model guidance kind of loses a storm, so that could be it, or we could be swinging more weight to the second system. Onward, to the 00z suite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM was good from Union CT on north. oct? Will has been wanting one of these for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think the caveat Thursday is if the storm is way too flat. But even on the NAM, the thicknesses get low enough for a flip and a nice thermal ribbon would create one of the bands maybe 60 miles wide of decent QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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