dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Actually, 132 hours out isn't too ridiculous... It's when the D9 or D10 shows a perfect scenario that you can win millions gambling against it. 132 ... that's D5.5.. .Yeah, not ideal for the ECM... It's a cusp bomb for this particular model. If this were D4.5 we could feel a whole lot better about it.. If we can get it inside of 108 hrs on the Euro and its still has this solution, I may want to think about getting the mowing deck off the JD tractor and prepping the blower attachement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I just wet myself. Looking at that track with H7/H85 RH maps... that's a Taconics/Berkshires/Green Mountain crusher. ... Verbatim it's a bit more inclusive then just those areas... This type of rarity packs in a CF somewhere between TAN and CC Canal, with 20F across 5 miles of distance either side. December 2003 had a boundary like that... Basics: --Nacient cold air N with strong a-geostrophic vector at 925 pointed due S --Bombing low passing S of the Canal causing sub-geostrophic flow to be nearly cross-isobaric Is that going to happen as is... who knows, but that's a N wind white out of parachutes and falling temps inside of Rt 128 with that set up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Good. I can throw leaves with my snowblower along with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 That is a monster phase... but first wave is dampened per EC. Speaking of the first wave... NAM is super juicy at 72-84 with elevations getting mostly SN ... QPF is probably way too high but gotta love the 850 frontogen sig it's depicting. And the timing is perfect, too, with precip arriving mid-morning. When do the watches start flying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 That is a monster phase... but first wave is dampened per EC. Speaking of the first wave... NAM is super juicy at 72-84 with elevations getting mostly SN ... QPF is probably way too high but gotta love the 850 frontogen sig it's depicting. And the timing is perfect, too, with precip arriving mid-morning. When do the watches start flying? NAM Is also much stronger with storm 1... a much stronger PV anomaly leads to strong cyclogenesis. If the NAM verified verbatim you'd probably get a couple inches down to the valley floors in inland sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Verbatim it's a bit more inclusive then just those areas... This type of rarity packs in a CF somewhere between TAN and CC Canal, with 20F across 5 miles of distance either side. December 2003 had a boundary like that... Basics: --Nacient cold air N with strong a-geostrophic vector at 925 pointed due S --Bombing low passing S of the Canal causing sub-geostrophic flow to be nearly cross-isobaric Is that going to happen as is... who knows, but that's a N wind white out of parachutes and falling temps inside of Rt 128 with that set up... remember the calendar though. it's not january. boston buoy is 58F. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 remember the calendar though. it's not january. boston buoy is 58F. lol. lol. The central Long Island Sound buoy was 64 Sunday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If you take the euro verbatim, part the area would be in somewhat of a DS too with the second one. Then heights crash as the storm bombs to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Good. I can throw leaves with my snowblower along with the snow. While chugging a couple of smithwicks, Would be alot easier then the leafblower, Snows to wet...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If you take the euro verbatim, part the area would be in somewhat of a DS too with the second one. Then heights crash as the storm bombs to the east. Yeah that's why I like Gods county, VT, NW CT for that one. Pretty wild. It will be interesting to see what the models wind up doing with Rina in the next 24 hours too. Really looks like it's going to town down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 lol. The central Long Island Sound buoy was 64 Sunday AM. yeah...ACK sound is still 62F. LOL. even stellwagon is 59F...which is saying something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah that's why I like Gods county, VT, NW CT for that one. Pretty wild. It will be interesting to see what the models wind up doing with Rina in the next 24 hours too. Really looks like it's going to town down there. That area never fails. High oceanic heat content FTW. Good outflow possibly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 That area never fails. High oceanic heat content FTW. Good outflow possibly too. If there's enough of a weakness and the southern stream shortwave digs a bit more the thing could impact Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If there's enough of a weakness and the southern stream shortwave digs a bit more the thing could impact Florida. Yeah I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If you take the euro verbatim, part the area would be in somewhat of a DS too with the second one. Then heights crash as the storm bombs to the east. On this run the track is just like 12/27 (track only) so yeah, good chance for a SNE dry slot with the low going right over eastern strong island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On this run the track is just like 12/27 (track only) so yeah, good chance for a SNE dry slot with the low going right over eastern strong island. Well it's a little different here as the mid levels are developing at the same time the low starts to tuck in. It also bombs east of the Cape. It looked more like a 1/13 type DS where it pivots into central mass this time around briefly. DS usually won't penetrate far inland as the low deepens rapidly. But again, we are in fantasy land regarding details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 remember the calendar though. it's not january. boston buoy is 58F. lol. Right - N wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The wunderground Euro snowfall maps are really weenie-ish...in the first event they give me like 7" of snow. Those are going to be a nightmare this winter with all the weenies hugging them. didnt realize those are avaiable now impressive run for the euro though.....would like to get it in another 24-36 hours and hold, but still impressive octobomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well it's a little different here as the mid levels are developing at the same time the low starts to tuck in. It also bombs east of the Cape. It looked more like a 1/13 type DS where it pivots into central mass this time around briefly. DS usually won't penetrate far inland as the low deepens rapidly. But again, we are in fantasy land regarding details. good point and agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 yeah...ACK sound is still 62F. LOL. even stellwagon is 59F...which is saying something. Not sure what you mean ... With a bombing low in that position and as stated vectors aligned rather anomalous it doesn't matter... The wind down in the CP is N in that Euro depiction, with deformation snow falling to beat the band (synoptically). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 LOL I love it... even the Red Taggers are going to weenie out over whatever happens in the next 4-6 days. Its always fun to watch the Mets get at least a little emotionally invested and excited in a situation. It fuels the fire of the non-met weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 LOL I love it... even the Red Taggers are going to weenie out over whatever happens in the next 4-6 days. Its always fun to watch the Mets get at least a little emotionally invested and excited in a situation. It fuels the fire of the non-met weenies. Especially when the euro comes out at 2 am.. heavy heavy tired arguments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 LOL I love it... even the Red Taggers are going to weenie out over whatever happens in the next 4-6 days. Its always fun to watch the Mets get at least a little emotionally invested and excited in a situation. It fuels the fire of the non-met weenies. That 2nd storm on the Euro was the biggest weenie solution you can get.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Not sure what you mean ... With a bombing low in that position and as stated vectors aligned rather anomalous it doesn't matter... The wind down in the CP is N in that Euro depiction, with deformation snow falling to beat the band (synoptically). Talk dirty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 So what do we make of the 12z Euro and the 12z GGEM for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I am trying to remember how the models trended last year. Wasn't it along the lines of a Weenie jackpot solution at 3/4 days followed by a SE trend to almost too far east then trending back west with another late NW jog in the last 24 hours or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 LOL I love it... even the Red Taggers are going to weenie out over whatever happens in the next 4-6 days. Its always fun to watch the Mets get at least a little emotionally invested and excited in a situation. It fuels the fire of the non-met weenies. Except for CT Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I am trying to remember how the models trended last year. Wasn't it along the lines of a Weenie jackpot solution at 3/4 days followed by a SE trend to almost too far east then trending back west with another late NW jog in the last 24 hours or so? Yut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Man I just saw the Canadian for the second storm... man that thing turns into a monster Hudson Valley Runner. The GFS is actually the SE outlier with that one, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 LOL I love it... even the Red Taggers are going to weenie out over whatever happens in the next 4-6 days. Its always fun to watch the Mets get at least a little emotionally invested and excited in a situation. It fuels the fire of the non-met weenies. The mets all have a little weenie in them (some moreso than others)...it's funny to see it come out..then some try to reel it back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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