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Go Time - First Winter Storm Threat for New England 2011/12


Baroclinic Zone

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Any analogs to this one?

Same two analogs for everything in NE- 9.21.38 and 2.5.78. whistle.gif

From this mornings BTV AFD

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY... CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR POTENTIAL EARLY SEASON WINTERWEATHER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

OVERVIEW...

SOME CLARITY HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO TAKE SHAPE AMONG MEDIUM RANGEOPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONSDURING MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES INTIMING STILL EXIST...THIS MORNING`S ECMWF HAS TRENDED CONSIDERABLYCLOSER TO THE GFS...WHICH HAS REMAINED STEADFASTLY CONSISTENT IN ITSIDEA OF TRACKING A MODEST SFC WAVE ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND DURING THURSDAY/THURSDAYEVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCINGWITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREADOVERRUNNING PCPN TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAMEAS THE WAVE PASSES.

FOR THE PARTICULARS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER THOUGH WITH SLOWLY THICKENING MID TO HIGH CLOUDCOVER WED NIGHT AS WAA ALOFT EVOLVES. DID OPT FOR SLIGHTLY MILDERMIN TEMPS THAN MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUDS...GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OR HIGHER ELEV RA/SN THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREADURING THURSDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/WETSNOW OR ALL SNOW IN ALL AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WET BULBAND/OR DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES OCCUR. COULD EVEN SEE A BAND OFHEAVIER SNOW SOMEWHERE FROM ERN NY INTO CENTRAL/SRN VT/SRN NH/ME BYLATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS DURING BEST FGENFORCING/850-700 MB WAA. WILL THUS OFFER HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPSWITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHERELEVATIONS...SAY ABOVE 1000 FT. EVEN A WET SLUSHY ACCUMULATION OF ANINCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL THURSDAYEVENING...BUT MILDER GROUND TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATION ON AREA ROADS. TEMPERATURES RATHER TRICKY AND WILLLIKELY BE NON-DIURNAL IN NATURE. THUS GRIDDED DATASETS WILL SUGGESTMID MORNING HIGHS IN THE 35-40 RANGE...SLOWLY COOLING THROUGH THEDAY. VALUES THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS SYSTEMPULLS EAST...PCPN TAPERS OFF AND DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES ABATE.

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I have a feeling that this one is going to end up splitting the difference and northern VT, NH and Maine will only getting light precip (rain turning over to snow) with 1-2" in the mtns and a sloppy coating at the valley floor. Southern VT and NH and the northern Berks might squeeze out 3-4" above 1500ft and 1-2" above 700ft...really depends on the digging of that SW right at the end. If it digs NNE might get a 3-5" snow above 1000ft, but it flattens out CNE might end up doing ok with elevation. Right now a middle of the road attitude seems right

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Euro has snow down to Central CT.. This is not just a NNE snow event folks. As Will posted it's an interior SNE and CNE snowstorm..elevation will be big of course

I am not in the NNE crowd, although they will see a mostly snow event. I think away from the immediate coastlines will see flakes and once you get 30-50 miles away, there will be some minor accum. I still think this is an elevation "event" for the most part, where the greatest impacts are there.

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Euro has snow down to Central CT.. This is not just a NNE snow event folks. As Will posted it's an interior SNE and CNE snowstorm..elevation will be big of course

I think most of us know that, but any snowfall in CT will be in the NW hills (1-3") and maybe up your way (coating-2")...it'll be a rain turning to very wet snow down your way and it'll only stick if it rips hard enough

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Euro has snow down to Central CT.. This is not just a NNE snow event folks. As Will posted it's an interior SNE and CNE snowstorm..elevation will be big of course

I think we'll see some flakes, but not really get anything to stay on the ground. Maybe in my hometown and areas like Norfolk and Canaan (above 1200') but not over here.

Although I won't be invited to this party, congrats on getting things rolling for the deeper interior folks - if things do materialize.

:snowman:

sorry I keep missing you on Friday nights at UConn, I had to make an emergency trip home.

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Nice.

My map access is limited, so I really don't get to see what you guys do, plust the firewalls don't help my situation.

I'll keep my eyes on the forum.

Use this one if you can.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

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Euro is def more of a socks storm, but it does flip to snow for many before ending. It looks like by 03z on the 28th. Will is about to change over and the area from near Kevin up through BOS (prob just inland) is mixing. By 06z it looks like int se mass mixes of flips briefly, but the precip is about to exit. Pretty good height falls too.

950mb temps are 0C at ORH at 03z.

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