Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well the time is here! Overnight it looks as though the 00z Euro held serve and is advertising accumulating snows for the northern tier of New England. The 00z GFS looks to be on the northern edge of guidance while the 00z Canadian on the southern edge. Details still to be ironed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yes!! Heavy heavy upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Rev going conservative with lollies to only 8". Nuisance snow. I suspect I'll see flakes, possibly a light accumulation if it can rip hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm so fooking pumped... Just think back to July/ August when it was 103 and we were looking at the snow storm memories threads and sulking At the same time it wouldn't surprise me to burned by the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'll enjoy all your reports from balmy west Hartford... Ct river valley FTL right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm so fooking pumped... Just think back to July/ August when it was 103 and we were looking at the snow storm memories threads and sulking At the same time it wouldn't surprise me to burned by the models Are they personally out to get you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Any analogs to this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Just a reminder to try and keep this on topic and try not to veer to far off and keep banter to a minimum. Winter prep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Any analogs to this one? Same two analogs for everything in NE- 9.21.38 and 2.5.78. From this mornings BTV AFD http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY... CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR POTENTIAL EARLY SEASON WINTERWEATHER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERVIEW... SOME CLARITY HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO TAKE SHAPE AMONG MEDIUM RANGEOPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONSDURING MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES INTIMING STILL EXIST...THIS MORNING`S ECMWF HAS TRENDED CONSIDERABLYCLOSER TO THE GFS...WHICH HAS REMAINED STEADFASTLY CONSISTENT IN ITSIDEA OF TRACKING A MODEST SFC WAVE ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND DURING THURSDAY/THURSDAYEVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCINGWITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREADOVERRUNNING PCPN TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAMEAS THE WAVE PASSES. FOR THE PARTICULARS... MAINLY DRY WEATHER THOUGH WITH SLOWLY THICKENING MID TO HIGH CLOUDCOVER WED NIGHT AS WAA ALOFT EVOLVES. DID OPT FOR SLIGHTLY MILDERMIN TEMPS THAN MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUDS...GENERALLY IN THE 30S. WIDESPREAD RAIN OR HIGHER ELEV RA/SN THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREADURING THURSDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/WETSNOW OR ALL SNOW IN ALL AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WET BULBAND/OR DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES OCCUR. COULD EVEN SEE A BAND OFHEAVIER SNOW SOMEWHERE FROM ERN NY INTO CENTRAL/SRN VT/SRN NH/ME BYLATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS DURING BEST FGENFORCING/850-700 MB WAA. WILL THUS OFFER HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPSWITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHERELEVATIONS...SAY ABOVE 1000 FT. EVEN A WET SLUSHY ACCUMULATION OF ANINCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL THURSDAYEVENING...BUT MILDER GROUND TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATION ON AREA ROADS. TEMPERATURES RATHER TRICKY AND WILLLIKELY BE NON-DIURNAL IN NATURE. THUS GRIDDED DATASETS WILL SUGGESTMID MORNING HIGHS IN THE 35-40 RANGE...SLOWLY COOLING THROUGH THEDAY. VALUES THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS SYSTEMPULLS EAST...PCPN TAPERS OFF AND DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES ABATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Just saw the 06z NAM.. looks a lot like the 00z GFS.. would def like to see a little further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I have a feeling that this one is going to end up splitting the difference and northern VT, NH and Maine will only getting light precip (rain turning over to snow) with 1-2" in the mtns and a sloppy coating at the valley floor. Southern VT and NH and the northern Berks might squeeze out 3-4" above 1500ft and 1-2" above 700ft...really depends on the digging of that SW right at the end. If it digs NNE might get a 3-5" snow above 1000ft, but it flattens out CNE might end up doing ok with elevation. Right now a middle of the road attitude seems right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Great runs last night. I think 1-3" from NW CT, SW MA, and then north of the Pike, with 4-5" in the usual high elevation jackpot areas of W MA, the southern Greens, and the Monadnocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro has snow down to Central CT.. This is not just a NNE snow event folks. As Will posted it's an interior SNE and CNE snowstorm..elevation will be big of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Although I won't be invited to this party, congrats on getting things rolling for the deeper interior folks - if things do materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro has snow down to Central CT.. This is not just a NNE snow event folks. As Will posted it's an interior SNE and CNE snowstorm..elevation will be big of course I am not in the NNE crowd, although they will see a mostly snow event. I think away from the immediate coastlines will see flakes and once you get 30-50 miles away, there will be some minor accum. I still think this is an elevation "event" for the most part, where the greatest impacts are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro has snow down to Central CT.. This is not just a NNE snow event folks. As Will posted it's an interior SNE and CNE snowstorm..elevation will be big of course I think most of us know that, but any snowfall in CT will be in the NW hills (1-3") and maybe up your way (coating-2")...it'll be a rain turning to very wet snow down your way and it'll only stick if it rips hard enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 FWIW, 00z CMC is very far south. Nice bit of snow for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Models have to camps with the track of the system on Thurs with the Euro furthest south and the GFS further north, Most likely scenario will lie in the middle, Todays 12z run may start to shed some light and its way to early to talk totals if any.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro has snow down to Central CT.. This is not just a NNE snow event folks. As Will posted it's an interior SNE and CNE snowstorm..elevation will be big of course I think we'll see some flakes, but not really get anything to stay on the ground. Maybe in my hometown and areas like Norfolk and Canaan (above 1200') but not over here. Although I won't be invited to this party, congrats on getting things rolling for the deeper interior folks - if things do materialize. sorry I keep missing you on Friday nights at UConn, I had to make an emergency trip home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 FWIW, 00z CMC is very far south. Nice bit of snow for Philly Yeah, Right now its the southern outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro has snow down to Central CT.. This is not just a NNE snow event folks. As Will posted it's an interior SNE and CNE snowstorm..elevation will be big of course I'll tell you exactly where in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 sorry I keep missing you on Friday nights at UConn, I had to make an emergency trip home. That's cool. I hope all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 0z Euro also has another coastal system on sunday with the GFS haveing the low staying well offshore, Verbatium with the Euro we would get a seconfd shot at snow as there would still be cold air in palce with the 1st storm passage.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Although I won't be invited to this party, congrats on getting things rolling for the deeper interior folks - if things do materialize. euro says you are doing shots with us at the bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 euro says you are doing shots with us at the bar. Nice. My map access is limited, so I really don't get to see what you guys do, plust the firewalls don't help my situation. I'll keep my eyes on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I can see it now.. Weenies staring out the window posting "I think its 17% snow 83% rain right now!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 euro says you are doing shots with us at the bar. Euro has accum snow all the way to the Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nice. My map access is limited, so I really don't get to see what you guys do, plust the firewalls don't help my situation. I'll keep my eyes on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nice. My map access is limited, so I really don't get to see what you guys do, plust the firewalls don't help my situation. I'll keep my eyes on the forum. Use this one if you can. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro is def more of a socks storm, but it does flip to snow for many before ending. It looks like by 03z on the 28th. Will is about to change over and the area from near Kevin up through BOS (prob just inland) is mixing. By 06z it looks like int se mass mixes of flips briefly, but the precip is about to exit. Pretty good height falls too. 950mb temps are 0C at ORH at 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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