mattie g Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 What does the CRAS say? I went to check yesterday, but it only goes out to 84. I'm serious on both accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 What was 79? Didn't someone say they had thundersnow with it? The anomalies look like a cutter or clipper / cold front or something. The 87 one is definitely a better look for snow around here. Indeed, thundersnow in Warren County, VA. Storm started during the night as rain. I remember being woken up by thunder at some point during the night, assumed it was like "oh, cool a thunderstorm" and fell back asleep. Sometime later everyone in the house was woken up by a loud thud and by my brother who came screaming out of his bedroom. It turned out that a large tree limb had fallen onto the roof of the house over his bedroom. We soon realized why. I remember every one of us looking in disbeleif when we saw that everything outside was white. Someone quickly ran and turned on the outside flood lights and I was shocked to see giant wet snowflakes literally pouring from the sky. Imagine a summer T-storm deluge only with snow. It was by far the heaviest snow I've ever seen (Feb '83 put down 4-inch/hour snows here, but it was very dry, fluffy snow). The storm lasted only a few hours as best I could tell (since it mostly happened in the middle of the night), but at first light I went out and measured 14". We lived east of Front Royal out in Warren County at about 1200' elevation, though even in town the snowfall was significant. Due to the leaves still being on the trees, there was incredible tree damage; we had them down all over our property, including several accross our driveway and power lines. I remember hauling wood all afternoon as my mom and older brother chain-sawed through the big oaks that blocked our driveway. It was eerie to have the incredible quiet that occurs in deep snow periodically interrupted by what sounded like gunshots ringing through the hills as tree after tree snapped under the weight of all that snow. We didn't have power for 3 or 4 days, so we all went to stay with various family members (no power = no water). The snow melted quickly and was gone in a couple of days, but it will never be forgotten. Looking at the 500mb chart from that day, I'm even more shocked at that storm. As you said, looks only like cold front, squall-line type storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 lollipops to 3' w/ 150 mph sustained for Bethesda Boy? Someone has cold feet, cmon stick it out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Why do you think I teamed up with Ian? He is the science, I am the maps and together we get into the Washington Post! Can you send me your checks from CWG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 We even had snow in north Central North Carolina in that 87 storm, almost an inch at my house about 30 miles north of Raleigh. That was not the earliest snowflakes I saw growing up down there, I remember one year playing high school football at the end of October and having flurries. In the late 90's we had a good dusting in mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Can you send me your checks from CWG? What checks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Why do you think I teamed up with Ian? He is the science, I am the maps and together we get into the Washington Post! I make the maps that make the weather world sing. I make the maps of snow and tropical things. I make the maps that make the weenies cry. I make the maps, I make the maps. I am mapgirl, and I make the maps. (With apologies to Neil Diamond) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm not sure about the euro op either. It does have some support from the ensembles which are a good tool to have 5 days out....but 5 days out is also enough to shift things around too. Given the origins of the system, I suppose it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 when the gfs says no and the euro says yes..gfs usually wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 when the gfs says no and the euro says yes..gfs usually wins which ever model that says no at 5 days always wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 when the gfs says no and the euro says yes..gfs usually wins The NAM actually looks pretty realistic.....keeps the area high and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The NAM actually looks pretty realistic.....keeps the area high and dry I don't partake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 if nothing else, we'll get an idea of which model(s) will be the better of the lot for the coming season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't partake. not even by accident? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 if nothing else, we'll get an idea of which model(s) will be the better of the lot for the coming season Nah...they will all suck at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Since the Ravens are now the goat of the AFC, all I have tp keep me off the ledge is this snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Nah...they will all suck at some point although I don't disagree with that statement, eventually we get a feel for which models are closest to reality and at how many days out it's not precise, but it gives us a decent idea my gut says go with the Euro, but the Euro really fooked with us in 08/09 4 days +/- out if you recall, which is why I'm pretty reluctant to get real interested otoh, it ain't like we can expect our next legit threat next week at this time of the year, so it's a nice practice run if nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm not sure about the euro op either. It does have some support from the ensembles which are a good tool to have 5 days out....but 5 days out is also enough to shift things around too. Given the origins of the system, I suppose it is possible. I think you guys are the ones that need to be invested in this one. ANybody down here getting excited is in for a world of hurt. Like Matt said, 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 What checks? Wait, you're doing it for free? Sucker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 if nothing else, we'll get an idea of which model(s) will be the better of the lot for the coming season It's the damn NS stuff. Doesn't matter which model. They'll both suck or be great on and off all season. Such little change in amplitude = big dif in outcome This year will be similar to last year irt to solutions and accuracy. I guess the one think I like about it is that we can be surprised too and not just deflated. Of course, I would much prefer a nino with nothing but miller A's but hey, that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It's the damn NS stuff. Doesn't matter which model. They'll both suck or be great on and off all season. Such little change in amplitude = big dif in outcome This year will be similar to last year irt to solutions and accuracy. I guess the one think I like about it is that we can be surprised too and not just deflated. Of course, I would much prefer a nino with nothing but miller A's but hey, that's just me. Surprise would require a healthy dose of snow/model cynicism...which I suppose is required in this area unless you want to drive yourself insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wait, you're doing it for free? Sucker! It would appear so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I make the maps that make the weather world sing. I make the maps of snow and tropical things. I make the maps that make the weenies cry. I make the maps, I make the maps. I am mapgirl, and I make the maps. (With apologies to Neil Diamond) Manilow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Manilow You mean, MAP-ilow! Uk-hyuck-hyuck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Manilow Performed by Manilow, but written by off and on Beach Boy member Bruce Johnston. "I Write the Songs" won the Grammy for Song of the Year in 1977; see http://en.wikipedia....Write_the_Songs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You mean, MAP-ilow! Uk-hyuck-hyuck... I lold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You mean, MAP-ilow! Uk-hyuck-hyuck... You should see a doctor about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Manilow Eh, lounge lizard singers who women still throw their underwear at...easy to get confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro was over amplified with storms quite a bit last year..even showing great solutions 3-4 runs in a row...then it would lose it. Euro is an outlier here so its in big trouble...but well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Apparantly we had a trace amount of snow on October 22, 2003? I don't remember that. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/Bwioct.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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