Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 If anything, the thread at least discusses of the potential low this weekend...which could be big...even if nobody sees snow. I agree with that. Those snow maps on Wunderground look very weenie-ish. That's heads up #1. I hope people realize that. Yeah I was wondering about them earlier. I have not looked at them much. If nothing else a 3 hr panel of snowfall isnt as cool as an event total unless you're talking Feb 5-6 or something. One thing is we don't have a ton of cold air to work with since it's so early, here or to drawn on from the north. I could certainly see someone getting plastered, but not likely someone close to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Nobody mentioned the 18z Gfs showing nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think Brian Korty at HPC did put out 2-4 inches for the Veteran's day storm on his mid shift but 24 hrs before the event now one was predicting it. According to http://localnews.col...aven.com/?p=135 -- "The story begins on the evening of November 10, 1987. A cold high pressure for the time of year was to the north of the D.C. area, while a weak 'upper air disturbance' was forecasted to pass to the south of D.C .overnight which would include the D.C. area in the northern fringe of its limited precipitation shield. The term 'upper air disturbance' was years later confirmed by a University of Maryland climatologist to me as being what I had suspected all along: that the meteorologists don’t know what it actually is and that it is 'up in the air' and is indeed a disturbance since it is producing cloudiness or precipitation, hence the term upper air disturbance. The local National Weather Service (NWS) as well as every local news meteorologist including Bob Ryan of channel 4, Sue Palka of channel 5, and Gordon Barnes of channel 9 predicted flurries for the area that night. The fact that the local news meteorologists went with the NWS is of no surprise because they rarely deviated from the others and actually stated what they were thinking, if anything. "The next morning, I woke up to an inch of snow on the ground with some continued light snow and flurries. I immediately turned on the TV and my weather radio and found all of the morning meteorologists to be nowcasting. Nowcasting is the term used for when a meteorologist 'forecasts' the weather retroactively by basing his/her forecast on current conditions that were not nearly what was expected. The NWS issued a winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches of snow and the D.C. area had received about two inches. The winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches was a safe bet since it had already occurred and all of the morning television weathermen were on the screen acting as though they had forecasted this 'much' snow . . ." One footnote to this storm: During 1971-1977, Veterans Day was celebrated on the fourth Monday of October. Had veterans not successfully lobbied during the '70s to move the holiday back to November 11, there were have been several hundred thousand more commuters on the roads in the DC area on November 11, 1987. So, as bad as traffic was that day, gridlock would have been vastly worse had it not been a Federal Government holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I didn't know typing lolz could cause such an uproar. The thread is fine, discussing the storm is fine, etc. But it's October and we're doing Euro play by play at d5-6 with people excited that the 12z suite is "locking in" (not to mention the 12z GFS MEX doesnt get anyone to freezing and is in the 50s during the day). It makes me nervous about the winter. There were plenty of legit complaints last winter about how we do things here. If people really thought all we were getting was cold rain for sure this would not be a 200+ post thread after 12 hours. People have an irrational love for snow around here.. it's cool, but let's at least not pretend that's not the case. Regardless, since my first two lolz posts I've managed to throw a lot of reasoning out there. Just to me and my crappy opinion, it just seems you are a different person than last year and earlier this year. You just seem so very negative with a lot events this year. I agree the thread is fine but so what it is the end of October. Parts of the Mid atlantic region will get snow out of this system, yeah people like jon jon and a few others but it doesnt hurt to discuss it. No one is crying how IMBY. That would just be plain out stupid. i didnt see anyone in here lock in the solution the Euro potrayed or the GFS, it was more like hey look what it is showing, then people were breaking down the what ifs, and what could happen discussion. You make reasonable posts but sometimes you lean more to the negative side instead of discussing the variable options that could roll out in the entire region. You know I like youand Im not trying to be an ass and you are a very knowledgable person wrt wx and know way more than i do it just seems the style of your posts has trended opposite of what I am used to reading from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I agree with that. Yeah I was wondering about them earlier. I have not looked at them much. If nothing else a 3 hr panel of snowfall isnt as cool as an event total unless you're talking Feb 5-6 or something. One thing is we don't have a ton of cold air to work with since it's so early, here or to drawn on from the north. I could certainly see someone getting plastered, but not likely someone close to me. Yeah the 3 hr detail is nice to see. I just could see people hugging the snow algorithm when it might only give them half of that..if at all. We haven't had a test of it, so tough to really get picky...but some of the totals I saw for this area under very borderline conditions seemed too excessive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah the 3 hr detail is nice to see. I just could see people hugging the snow algorithm when it might only give them half of that..if at all. We haven't had a test of it, so tough to really get picky...but some of the totals I saw for this area under very borderline conditions seemed too excessive. The wunderground Euro snow totals will be hard to control this winter. Weenies will love them because their totals look like weenies drew the maps. I can't believe some of the totals it was spitting out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 What's all this about snow? It's only Oct 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Just to me and my crappy opinion, it just seems you are a different person than last year and earlier this year. You just seem so very negative with a lot events this year. I agree the thread is fine but so what it is the end of October. Parts of the Mid atlantic region will get snow out of this system, yeah people like jon jon and a few others but it doesnt hurt to discuss it. No one is crying how IMBY. That would just be plain out stupid. i didnt see anyone in here lock in the solution the Euro potrayed or the GFS, it was more like hey look what it is showing, then people were breaking down the what ifs, and what could happen discussion. You make reasonable posts but sometimes you lean more to the negative side instead of discussing the variable options that could roll out in the entire region. You know I like youand Im not trying to be an ass and you are a very knowledgable person wrt wx and know way more than i do it just seems the style of your posts has trended opposite of what I am used to reading from you. I'm sorta lost by your post here. Perhaps I've lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 According to http://localnews.col...aven.com/?p=135 -- "The story begins on the evening of November 10, 1987. A cold high pressure for the time of year was to the north of the D.C. area, while a weak 'upper air disturbance' was forecasted to pass to the south of D.C .overnight which would include the D.C. area in the northern fringe of its limited precipitation shield. The term 'upper air disturbance' was years later confirmed by a University of Maryland climatologist to me as being what I had suspected all along: that the meteorologists don’t know what it actually is and that it is 'up in the air' and is indeed a disturbance since it is producing cloudiness or precipitation, hence the term upper air disturbance. The local National Weather Service (NWS) as well as every local news meteorologist including Bob Ryan of channel 4, Sue Palka of channel 5, and Gordon Barnes of channel 9 predicted flurries for the area that night. The fact that the local news meteorologists went with the NWS is of no surprise because they rarely deviated from the others and actually stated what they were thinking, if anything. "The next morning, I woke up to an inch of snow on the ground with some continued light snow and flurries. I immediately turned on the TV and my weather radio and found all of the morning meteorologists to be nowcasting. Nowcasting is the term used for when a meteorologist 'forecasts' the weather retroactively by basing his/her forecast on current conditions that were not nearly what was expected. The NWS issued a winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches of snow and the D.C. area had received about two inches. The winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches was a safe bet since it had already occurred and all of the morning television weathermen were on the screen acting as though they had forecasted this 'much' snow . . ." One footnote to this storm: During 1971-1977, Veterans Day was celebrated on the fourth Monday of October. Had veterans not successfully lobbied during the '70s to move the holiday back to November 11, there were have been several hundred thousand more commuters on the roads in the DC area on November 11, 1987. So, as bad as traffic was that day, gridlock would have been vastly worse had it not been a Federal Government holiday. November 10 1987 it was raining with temps falling thru the 40s all day. Overnight it fell into the low 30s then the rain changed to snow and we got an inch of snow. November 11 we had a forecast for a couple inches of snow. It stopped for a while, then started up again and snowed all day and the rest is history - Woodbridge got 11 inches of snow and I was beside myself with joy. I was digging snow and piling it up to embarrassing heights. This was back when I was living with my old friends in the 1980s and I just went out and jebwalked in the snow all day. 1987 was a very good year for snow for us. January 1987 was good for us as well - Jan 22 we got 14 inches, and then 4 days later we got 10 more inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 are you sure those are not stormvista maps? I thought that too when I saw it. Not sure if Jack O was using MDA as his vendor ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Man I just can not believe it - posters developing a massive storm thread in late October about snow. It's surreal. Is it Oct 24 or is it Jan 24? What if this really DOES happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 00z euro.....colder snowier....high of 36 at Iad sat with over an inch of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 00z euro.....colder snowier....high of 36 at Iad sat with over an inch of qpf Good morning, Ji! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 00z euro.....colder snowier....high of 36 at Iad sat with over an inch of qpf lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 00z euro.....colder snowier....high of 36 at Iad sat with over an inch of qpf Weekend rule baby....we are gonna beat zwyts snow prediction before November!!! Im sooooo excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 lolz Pessimist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I can't even seriously think about snow at this point, but it is incredible how the Euro is so dang bullish, if not in our back yards then very close. I don't know what to think in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I can't even seriously think about snow at this point, but it is incredible how the Euro is so dang bullish, if not in our back yards then very close. I don't know what to think in all honesty. Here is what i think...its a great time for some humor and fun and general back and forth banter...in the appropriate thread of course.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Here is what i think...its a great time for some humor and fun and general back and forth banter...in the appropriate thread of course.. meh, humor and fun are overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 meh, humor and fun are overrated At your age....i understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 interesting split b/w gfs euro -- dec 26 baby. euro might just be overamped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ian said Dec 26th - storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 interesting split b/w gfs euro -- dec 26 baby. euro might just be overamped. What does the CRAS say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 What does the CRAS say? id guess it brings rina up the bay as a cat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Here is what i think...its a great time for some humor and fun and general back and forth banter...in the appropriate thread of course.. Pretty much. It's a good time to get the band back together for rehearsals. Ji reprogrammed the euro fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'll have a snowfall map out shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm sorta lost by your post here. Perhaps I've lost it. Reality has no place here. Please post only fantasy analysis. kthx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Reality has no place here. Please post only fantasy analysis. kthx. rina snowicane.. 2' for you plus 100 mph sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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