Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 This. I don't expect ~4 as the Euro map has for me, but even seeing a rain/snow mix the last weekend of October would be pretty cool I agree and it's possible if not likely. This thread has evolved tho. It was initially a 95 snowstorm thread. I just feel like memories are short sometimes. We get screwed 12 hours out so 5 days out is cake comparatively. I'm also not at all sure what would gve anyone confidence around here given the 500mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm also not at all sure what would gve anyone confidence around here given the 500mb pattern. For me, only the 500mb vorticity at the base of the trough @ hr 114 on the 12z gfs + 850 temp and slp. 1023 hp up in NE that doesn't just scoot away off the coast. I know it's grasping a bit and I hope I didn't imply confidence. My interpretation is that there is a chance of flakes falling and that is totally cool with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 For me, only the 500mb vorticity at the base of the trough @ hr 114 on the 12z gfs + 850 temp and slp. 1023 hp up in NE that doesn't just scoot away off the coast. I know it's grasping a bit and I hope I didn't imply confidence. My interpretation is that there is a chance of flakes falling and that is totally cool with me. I guess I'm too cynical. Nothing I didn't really know before. The closed 500 low north of New England probably wants to keep it from cutting too hard but we have no breathing room as is around here. It seems in most cases, particularly early season, we end up seeing this all come nw a bit into the end. The last low was supposed to be a coastal according to some two letter mets etc. It was a big fat low over the lakes with a tiny secondary. That's not likely to happen this time but we need this to be perfect to get much more than rain... and even a few flakes would be a win around here for winter fans. It could also phase too late which we're not strangers to either. Either way if it's a cold rain / nor'easter it's pretty anomalous for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm defensive and you're sensitive (midlo liked being called a snow weenie!). Yeah it's true I get annoyed with people who like snow only, because many get carried away with it and always run to extremes and quite a few care less about how it happens meteorologically. Ji posted about the Euro at first rather than some broader storm threat. Then there were snow maps etc. To me it's early for this considering last year was pretty ugly in this subforum. You can say whatever you want about me but I'm in this forum talking weather all year. I thought your statement was funny that a month later you'd give it a real legit look. It's a convoluted pattern that needs to come together as shown now -- 5 days out -- to give us a cold rain. If we lived in WV I may be a bit more excited myself. When it comes to snow discussion being overly measured is like the worst evil possible. And as Katie already noted I said my lolz were probably a bad idea. But you got me hours later.. Thanks. I didn't see the later posts. But we get it, you're here posting constantly in every season and I'm not. So what. I don't have a whole lot to say about 99 degrees with a dew of 72. If that's gets you tingling, great. I just don't care enough to post about it. Don't you wish others who don't have anything great to say did the same? I'm glad we're branching out from just snow and I enjoy the tropical posts as well...but since I don't know enough about it, I lurked and shut the hell up. My point is, I just don't think its a good idea to be going through angst because people on a weather board are talking about an extreme MODEL prog. Oh, I don't mind at all being a snow weenie. Wes calls me that and I wear it with a badge of honor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I didn't see the later posts. But we get it, you're here posting constantly in every season and I'm not. So what. I don't have a whole lot to say about 99 degrees with a dew of 72. If that's gets you tingling, great. I just don't care enough to post about it. Don't you wish others who don't have anything great to say did the same? I'm glad we're branching out from just snow and I enjoy the tropical posts as well...but since I don't know enough about it, I lurked and shut the hell up. My point is, I just don't think its a good idea to be going through angst because people on a weather board are talking about an extreme MODEL prog. Oh, I don't mind at all being a snow weenie. Wes calls me that and I wear it with a badge of honor. That's fine. I wasn't really admonishing anyone in particular. I'm just worried about the tone. We need more people like Matt posting here rather than more Ji. Plus you might have missed the part that I am probably inadvertently helping the cause by being so against it happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 dismissing it because it's oct is only one part of it. sometimes i wonder if anyone reads each others posts here. just look how much we have go wrong in complicated setups EVERY YEAR during prime winter. the OCT part is only a part of it. Right. Of course take climatology into account. A few folks said outright no chance because it's October. Which is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Right. Of course take climatology into account. A few folks said outright no chance because it's October. Which is silly. I think some of it is probably oversimplified. Not everyone goes into great detail when they think something (I know I fall into that trap myself). The odds are heavily stacked against it this early even in a great setup. This one is intriguing but I don't know if I'd call it great. That said, I sometimes wonder if having too much climo knowledge is a bad thing as much as having none. I'd say personally I'm much more apt to be wrong on something by too heavily weighting climo. Of course a forecaster should be averse to predicting records at any time, but they do happen of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hello, I will say that in my 47 years I can't remember a significant October snow here in upper moco, but I do remember the big snow we got in the 80's a week or so from now. I guess some flakes are possible but I am doubtful. Is anyone really confident about snow in central MD based on model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think some of it is probably oversimplified. Not everyone goes into great detail when they think something (I know I fall into that trap myself). The odds are heavily stacked against it this early even in a great setup. This one is intriguing but I don't know if I'd call it great. That said, I sometimes wonder if having too much climo knowledge is a bad thing as much as having none. I'd say personally I'm much more apt to be wrong on something by too heavily weighting climo. Of course a forecaster should be averse to predicting records at any time, but they do happen of course. I think in this case you can use all the climo knowledge you have...it's October....there's a reason these events don't happen in reality often....That being said, i would be pretty pessimistic about the evolution of this event even if this was Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 look....i woke up at 5am...checked the euro(i had this weird gut feeling) since i almost never check it till Late November....saw the MOS and decided to post the results for the board as a news item..not a prediction. 200 posts later...looks like i did the right thing:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 if i saw this model run in July, i still would of posted it but probably would be less inclined to believe it..... and yes..the JMA has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think in this case you can use all the climo knowledge you have...it's October....there's a reason these events don't happen in reality often....That being said, i would be pretty pessimistic about the evolution of this event even if this was Jan. Yeah, I agree. If it still looks good tomorrow night maybe I'll start to be swayed. Everything is just too marginal outside elevation. So far every modeled cold has ended up less cold than modeled. And most of the models bring a 500 track right over us with weird interaction of a mega digging northern stream vort. That doesn't often cut it in the heart of winter. I'd this point I would not expect flakes to end but I could see how it might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 look....i woke up at 5am...checked the euro(i had this weird gut feeling) since i almost never check it till Late November....saw the MOS and decided to post the results for the board as a news item..not a prediction. 200 posts later...looks like i did the right thing:) probably. but the point still stands that one ji is enough for any weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah, I agree. If it still looks good tomorrow night maybe I'll start to be swayed. Everything is just too marginal outside elevation. So far every modeled cold has ended up less cold than modeled. And most of the models bring a 500 track right over us with weird interaction of a mega digging northern stream vort. That doesn't often cut it in the heart of winter. I'd this point I would not expect flakes to end but I could see how it might happen. Me too...its usually hard to be pessimistic in the winter, but easy this time of year...but I'd love to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 earliest i remember seeing accumulating snow is Nov 11,1987. Earlier i remember seeing snow fall is Columbus day.... Being a DC native and 48, I also remember October 79 very well. I have always wanted a met with history of DC weather to tell me which is the bigger weather anamoly. The snow in DC in 79 in October or the Veterans Day stomr in 87? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ji cracks me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Being a DC native and 48, I also remember October 79 very well. I have always wanted a met with history of DC weather to tell me which is the bigger weather anamoly. The snow in DC in 79 in October or the Veterans Day stomr in 87? 1987 is a top 20 storm for DC and the only in November. So on that level it's probably more anomalous. I don't really know the details of 79 though. It is super early for snow of any sort despite the low number at D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Being a DC native and 48, I also remember October 79 very well. I have always wanted a met with history of DC weather to tell me which is the bigger weather anamoly. The snow in DC in 79 in October or the Veterans Day stomr in 87? Looks like October 1979 would be the winner (based on 500 hPa height anomalies)...note: these anomalies are not normalized but the variability is probably comparable to slightly lower in October, making the October 1979 the comfortable winner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 if i saw this model run in July, i still would of posted it but probably would be less inclined to believe it..... and yes..the JMA has it You're also checking the JMA on 10/24. Gonna be a long winter for you with the 4-10 day model solutions. I've seen 38 degree flurries plenty of times in October growing up in a western Md. valley. When cold air swept in at the end of a rain storm. Can only find 2 accumulating events in October at Martinsburg. 1940 with 0.2" and 1.0" in 1979. November snows seem to have gone the way of March snows, but HM says we have a shot at a fluke this year, so I'm riding with that one. And the 11/1987 storm was far and away more anomalous than the wet snow that melted as soon as the sun hit it in 1979. I had 13" of the heaviest wet snow I've ever seen in PG County, and I don't think the temp ever fell below 32 the whole storm. Never went above it either, despite nowcasts continuing to call for a change to rain through most of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 look....i woke up at 5am...checked the euro(i had this weird gut feeling) since i almost never check it till Late November....saw the MOS and decided to post the results for the board as a news item..not a prediction. 200 posts later...looks like i did the right thing:) I see absolutely nothing wrong with your thread. it is worth discussing even if the probilities are very low. I dont know pissed in Ian's cheerios but I have never seen him like this before. I dont see the reason for getting all upset about this. it is wx, 95% of the people here know climate isnt in our favor for anything decent so i dont see how it is hurting the board at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I see absolutely nothing wrong with your thread. it is worth discussing even if the probilities are very low. I dont know pissed in Ian's cheerios but I have never seen him like this before. I dont see the reason for getting all upset about this. it is wx, 95% of the people here know climate isnt in our favor for anything decent so i dont see how it is hurting the board at all? I didn't know typing lolz could cause such an uproar. The thread is fine, discussing the storm is fine, etc. But it's October and we're doing Euro play by play at d5-6 with people excited that the 12z suite is "locking in" (not to mention the 12z GFS MEX doesnt get anyone to freezing and is in the 50s during the day). It makes me nervous about the winter. There were plenty of legit complaints last winter about how we do things here. If people really thought all we were getting was cold rain for sure this would not be a 200+ post thread after 12 hours. People have an irrational love for snow around here.. it's cool, but let's at least not pretend that's not the case. Regardless, since my first two lolz posts I've managed to throw a lot of reasoning out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 If anything, the thread at least discusses of the potential low this weekend...which could be big...even if nobody sees snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ian has a huge ego....he is a better met than DT and it's probably gone to his head. Btw...what is the point of the show Mike and Molly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I didn't know typing lolz could cause such an uproar. The thread is fine, discussing the storm is fine, etc. But it's October and we're doing Euro play by play at d5-6 with people excited that the 12z suite is "locking in" (not to mention the 12z GFS MEX doesnt get anyone to freezing and is in the 50s during the day). It makes me nervous about the winter. There were plenty of legit complaints last winter about how we do things here. If people really thought all we were getting was cold rain for sure this would not be a 200+ post thread after 12 hours. People have an irrational love for snow around here.. it's cool, but let's at least not pretend that's not the case. Regardless, since my first two lolz posts I've managed to throw a lot of reasoning out there. Those snow maps on Wunderground look very weenie-ish. That's heads up #1. I hope people realize that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Thank you I'm going to have my superiors take a look at it in the morning. Directly or not, reposting is not allowed. are you sure those are not stormvista maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Looks like October 1979 would be the winner (based on 500 hPa height anomalies)...note: these anomalies are not normalized but the variability is probably comparable to slightly lower in October, making the October 1979 the comfortable winner... Thank you. And to Ian before. This why I asked the question. Never really could figure how to weigh the early time and heavy amount of the November snow vs the ridiculous early October 10 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Looks like October 1979 would be the winner (based on 500 hPa height anomalies)...note: these anomalies are not normalized but the variability is probably comparable to slightly lower in October, making the October 1979 the comfortable winner... What was 79? Didn't someone say they had thundersnow with it? The anomalies look like a cutter or clipper / cold front or something. The 87 one is definitely a better look for snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 This is a a fun storm. If it dosent happen..well it's October stupid. If it does it's historic. It's not like the dec 26 storm where Dave had to call suicide prevention and it was busy cause ji was already talking to a customer support rep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Ian has a huge ego....he is a better met than DT and it's probably gone to his head. Btw...what is the point of the show Mike and Molly? lolz I do love you ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 What was 79? Didn't someone say they had thundersnow with it? The anomalies look like a cutter or clipper / cold front or something. The 87 one is definitely a better look for snow around here. 79 does look like a clipper with a good deal of very anomalous cold air behind it....I bet it was a short burst of convective type snow with the mid-level vort....from an impact standpoint I'd take 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.