the October snowstorm Ian Disaster its going to be a long winter thread

[Ian]

I think in this case you can use all the climo knowledge you have...it's October....there's a reason these events don't happen in reality often....That being said, i would be pretty pessimistic about the evolution of this event even if this was Jan.

Yeah, I agree. If it still looks good tomorrow night maybe I'll start to be swayed. Everything is just too marginal outside elevation. So far every modeled cold has ended up less cold than modeled. And most of the models bring a 500 track right over us with weird interaction of a mega digging northern stream vort. That doesn't often cut it in the heart of winter. I'd this point I would not expect flakes to end but I could see how it might happen.

[Ian]

look....i woke up at 5am...checked the euro(i had this weird gut feeling) since i almost never check it till Late November....saw the MOS and decided to post the results for the board as a news item..not a prediction. 200 posts later...looks like i did the right thing:)

probably. but the point still stands that one ji is enough for any weather board.

[chris87]

Yeah, I agree. If it still looks good tomorrow night maybe I'll start to be swayed. Everything is just too marginal outside elevation. So far every modeled cold has ended up less cold than modeled. And most of the models bring a 500 track right over us with weird interaction of a mega digging northern stream vort. That doesn't often cut it in the heart of winter. I'd this point I would not expect flakes to end but I could see how it might happen.

Me too...its usually hard to be pessimistic in the winter, but easy this time of year...but I'd love to be wrong.

[TJ3]

earliest i remember seeing accumulating snow is Nov 11,1987. Earlier i remember seeing snow fall is Columbus day....

Being a DC native and 48, I also remember October 79 very well. I have always wanted a met with history of DC weather to tell me which is the bigger weather anamoly. The snow in DC in 79 in October or the Veterans Day stomr in 87?

[mappy]

Ji cracks me up

[Ian]

Being a DC native and 48, I also remember October 79 very well. I have always wanted a met with history of DC weather to tell me which is the bigger weather anamoly. The snow in DC in 79 in October or the Veterans Day stomr in 87?

1987 is a top 20 storm for DC and the only in November. So on that level it's probably more anomalous. I don't really know the details of 79 though. It is super early for snow of any sort despite the low number at D.C.

[chris87]

Being a DC native and 48, I also remember October 79 very well. I have always wanted a met with history of DC weather to tell me which is the bigger weather anamoly. The snow in DC in 79 in October or the Veterans Day stomr in 87?

Looks like October 1979 would be the winner (based on 500 hPa height anomalies)...note: these anomalies are not normalized but the variability is probably comparable to slightly lower in October, making the October 1979 the comfortable winner...

[WVclimo]

if i saw this model run in July, i still would of posted it but probably would be less inclined to believe it.....

and yes..the JMA has it

You're also checking the JMA on 10/24. Gonna be a long winter for you with the 4-10 day model solutions.

I've seen 38 degree flurries plenty of times in October growing up in a western Md. valley. When cold air swept in at the end of a rain storm. Can only find 2 accumulating events in October at Martinsburg. 1940 with 0.2" and 1.0" in 1979.

November snows seem to have gone the way of March snows, but HM says we have a shot at a fluke this year, so I'm riding with that one.

And the 11/1987 storm was far and away more anomalous than the wet snow that melted as soon as the sun hit it in 1979. I had 13" of the heaviest wet snow I've ever seen in PG County, and I don't think the temp ever fell below 32 the whole storm. Never went above it either, despite nowcasts continuing to call for a change to rain through most of the event.

[Avdave]

look....i woke up at 5am...checked the euro(i had this weird gut feeling) since i almost never check it till Late November....saw the MOS and decided to post the results for the board as a news item..not a prediction. 200 posts later...looks like i did the right thing:)

I see absolutely nothing wrong with your thread. it is worth discussing even if the probilities are very low. I dont know pissed in Ian's cheerios but I have never seen him like this before. I dont see the reason for getting all upset about this. it is wx, 95% of the people here know climate isnt in our favor for anything decent so i dont see how it is hurting the board at all?

[Ian]

I see absolutely nothing wrong with your thread. it is worth discussing even if the probilities are very low. I dont know pissed in Ian's cheerios but I have never seen him like this before. I dont see the reason for getting all upset about this. it is wx, 95% of the people here know climate isnt in our favor for anything decent so i dont see how it is hurting the board at all?

I didn't know typing lolz could cause such an uproar. The thread is fine, discussing the storm is fine, etc. But it's October and we're doing Euro play by play at d5-6 with people excited that the 12z suite is "locking in" (not to mention the 12z GFS MEX doesnt get anyone to freezing and is in the 50s during the day). It makes me nervous about the winter. There were plenty of legit complaints last winter about how we do things here. If people really thought all we were getting was cold rain for sure this would not be a 200+ post thread after 12 hours. People have an irrational love for snow around here.. it's cool, but let's at least not pretend that's not the case. Regardless, since my first two lolz posts I've managed to throw a lot of reasoning out there.

[CoastalWx]

If anything, the thread at least discusses of the potential low this weekend...which could be big...even if nobody sees snow.

[Ji]

Ian has a huge ego....he is a better met than DT and it's probably gone to his head. Btw...what is the point of the show Mike and Molly?

[CoastalWx]

I didn't know typing lolz could cause such an uproar. The thread is fine, discussing the storm is fine, etc. But it's October and we're doing Euro play by play at d5-6 with people excited that the 12z suite is "locking in" (not to mention the 12z GFS MEX doesnt get anyone to freezing and is in the 50s during the day). It makes me nervous about the winter. There were plenty of legit complaints last winter about how we do things here. If people really thought all we were getting was cold rain for sure this would not be a 200+ post thread after 12 hours. People have an irrational love for snow around here.. it's cool, but let's at least not pretend that's not the case. Regardless, since my first two lolz posts I've managed to throw a lot of reasoning out there.

Those snow maps on Wunderground look very weenie-ish. That's heads up #1. I hope people realize that.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Thank you

I'm going to have my superiors take a look at it in the morning.

Directly or not, reposting is not allowed.

are you sure those are not stormvista maps?

[TJ3]

Looks like October 1979 would be the winner (based on 500 hPa height anomalies)...note: these anomalies are not normalized but the variability is probably comparable to slightly lower in October, making the October 1979 the comfortable winner...

Thank you. And to Ian before. This why I asked the question. Never really could figure how to weigh the early time and heavy amount of the November snow vs the ridiculous early October 10 snow

[Ian]

Looks like October 1979 would be the winner (based on 500 hPa height anomalies)...note: these anomalies are not normalized but the variability is probably comparable to slightly lower in October, making the October 1979 the comfortable winner...

What was 79? Didn't someone say they had thundersnow with it? The anomalies look like a cutter or clipper / cold front or something. The 87 one is definitely a better look for snow around here.

[Ji]

This is a a fun storm. If it dosent happen..well it's October stupid. If it does it's historic. It's not like the dec 26 storm where Dave had to call suicide prevention and it was busy cause ji was already talking to a customer support rep

[Ian]

Ian has a huge ego....he is a better met than DT and it's probably gone to his head. Btw...what is the point of the show Mike and Molly?

lolz

I do love you ji

[chris87]

What was 79? Didn't someone say they had thundersnow with it? The anomalies look like a cutter or clipper / cold front or something. The 87 one is definitely a better look for snow around here.

79 does look like a clipper with a good deal of very anomalous cold air behind it....I bet it was a short burst of convective type snow with the mid-level vort....from an impact standpoint I'd take 87.

[Ian]

If anything, the thread at least discusses of the potential low this weekend...which could be big...even if nobody sees snow.

I agree with that.

Those snow maps on Wunderground look very weenie-ish. That's heads up #1. I hope people realize that.

Yeah I was wondering about them earlier. I have not looked at them much. If nothing else a 3 hr panel of snowfall isnt as cool as an event total unless you're talking Feb 5-6 or something. One thing is we don't have a ton of cold air to work with since it's so early, here or to drawn on from the north. I could certainly see someone getting plastered, but not likely someone close to me.

[Ji]

Nobody mentioned the 18z Gfs showing nothing?

[RodneyS]

I think Brian Korty at HPC did put out 2-4 inches for the Veteran's day storm on his mid shift but 24 hrs before the event now one was predicting it.

According to http://localnews.col...aven.com/?p=135 --

"The story begins on the evening of November 10, 1987. A cold high pressure for the time of year was to the north of the D.C. area, while a weak 'upper air disturbance' was forecasted to pass to the south of D.C .overnight which would include the D.C. area in the northern fringe of its limited precipitation shield. The term 'upper air disturbance' was years later confirmed by a University of Maryland climatologist to me as being what I had suspected all along: that the meteorologists don’t know what it actually is and that it is 'up in the air' and is indeed a disturbance since it is producing cloudiness or precipitation, hence the term upper air disturbance. The local National Weather Service (NWS) as well as every local news meteorologist including Bob Ryan of channel 4, Sue Palka of channel 5, and Gordon Barnes of channel 9 predicted flurries for the area that night. The fact that the local news meteorologists went with the NWS is of no surprise because they rarely deviated from the others and actually stated what they were thinking, if anything.

"The next morning, I woke up to an inch of snow on the ground with some continued light snow and flurries. I immediately turned on the TV and my weather radio and found all of the morning meteorologists to be nowcasting. Nowcasting is the term used for when a meteorologist 'forecasts' the weather retroactively by basing his/her forecast on current conditions that were not nearly what was expected. The NWS issued a winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches of snow and the D.C. area had received about two inches. The winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches was a safe bet since it had already occurred and all of the morning television weathermen were on the screen acting as though they had forecasted this 'much' snow . . ."

One footnote to this storm: During 1971-1977, Veterans Day was celebrated on the fourth Monday of October. Had veterans not successfully lobbied during the '70s to move the holiday back to November 11, there were have been several hundred thousand more commuters on the roads in the DC area on November 11, 1987. So, as bad as traffic was that day, gridlock would have been vastly worse had it not been a Federal Government holiday.

[Avdave]

I didn't know typing lolz could cause such an uproar. The thread is fine, discussing the storm is fine, etc. But it's October and we're doing Euro play by play at d5-6 with people excited that the 12z suite is "locking in" (not to mention the 12z GFS MEX doesnt get anyone to freezing and is in the 50s during the day). It makes me nervous about the winter. There were plenty of legit complaints last winter about how we do things here. If people really thought all we were getting was cold rain for sure this would not be a 200+ post thread after 12 hours. People have an irrational love for snow around here.. it's cool, but let's at least not pretend that's not the case. Regardless, since my first two lolz posts I've managed to throw a lot of reasoning out there.

Just to me and my crappy opinion, it just seems you are a different person than last year and earlier this year. You just seem so very negative with a lot events this year. I agree the thread is fine but so what it is the end of October. Parts of the Mid atlantic region will get snow out of this system, yeah people like jon jon and a few others but it doesnt hurt to discuss it. No one is crying how IMBY. That would just be plain out stupid. i didnt see anyone in here lock in the solution the Euro potrayed or the GFS, it was more like hey look what it is showing, then people were breaking down the what ifs, and what could happen discussion. You make reasonable posts but sometimes you lean more to the negative side instead of discussing the variable options that could roll out in the entire region. You know I like youand Im not trying to be an ass and you are a very knowledgable person wrt wx and know way more than i do it just seems the style of your posts has trended opposite of what I am used to reading from you.

[Ji]

Lolz

[CoastalWx]

I agree with that.

Yeah I was wondering about them earlier. I have not looked at them much. If nothing else a 3 hr panel of snowfall isnt as cool as an event total unless you're talking Feb 5-6 or something. One thing is we don't have a ton of cold air to work with since it's so early, here or to drawn on from the north. I could certainly see someone getting plastered, but not likely someone close to me.

Yeah the 3 hr detail is nice to see.

I just could see people hugging the snow algorithm when it might only give them half of that..if at all. We haven't had a test of it, so tough to really get picky...but some of the totals I saw for this area under very borderline conditions seemed too excessive.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the 3 hr detail is nice to see.

I just could see people hugging the snow algorithm when it might only give them half of that..if at all. We haven't had a test of it, so tough to really get picky...but some of the totals I saw for this area under very borderline conditions seemed too excessive.

The wunderground Euro snow totals will be hard to control this winter. Weenies will love them because their totals look like weenies drew the maps. I can't believe some of the totals it was spitting out today.

[Jebman]

What's all this about snow?

It's only Oct 24.

[Ian]

Just to me and my crappy opinion, it just seems you are a different person than last year and earlier this year. You just seem so very negative with a lot events this year. I agree the thread is fine but so what it is the end of October. Parts of the Mid atlantic region will get snow out of this system, yeah people like jon jon and a few others but it doesnt hurt to discuss it. No one is crying how IMBY. That would just be plain out stupid. i didnt see anyone in here lock in the solution the Euro potrayed or the GFS, it was more like hey look what it is showing, then people were breaking down the what ifs, and what could happen discussion. You make reasonable posts but sometimes you lean more to the negative side instead of discussing the variable options that could roll out in the entire region. You know I like youand Im not trying to be an ass and you are a very knowledgable person wrt wx and know way more than i do it just seems the style of your posts has trended opposite of what I am used to reading from you.

I'm sorta lost by your post here. Perhaps I've lost it.

[Jebman]

According to http://localnews.col...aven.com/?p=135 --

"The story begins on the evening of November 10, 1987. A cold high pressure for the time of year was to the north of the D.C. area, while a weak 'upper air disturbance' was forecasted to pass to the south of D.C .overnight which would include the D.C. area in the northern fringe of its limited precipitation shield. The term 'upper air disturbance' was years later confirmed by a University of Maryland climatologist to me as being what I had suspected all along: that the meteorologists don’t know what it actually is and that it is 'up in the air' and is indeed a disturbance since it is producing cloudiness or precipitation, hence the term upper air disturbance. The local National Weather Service (NWS) as well as every local news meteorologist including Bob Ryan of channel 4, Sue Palka of channel 5, and Gordon Barnes of channel 9 predicted flurries for the area that night. The fact that the local news meteorologists went with the NWS is of no surprise because they rarely deviated from the others and actually stated what they were thinking, if anything.

"The next morning, I woke up to an inch of snow on the ground with some continued light snow and flurries. I immediately turned on the TV and my weather radio and found all of the morning meteorologists to be nowcasting. Nowcasting is the term used for when a meteorologist 'forecasts' the weather retroactively by basing his/her forecast on current conditions that were not nearly what was expected. The NWS issued a winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches of snow and the D.C. area had received about two inches. The winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches was a safe bet since it had already occurred and all of the morning television weathermen were on the screen acting as though they had forecasted this 'much' snow . . ."

One footnote to this storm: During 1971-1977, Veterans Day was celebrated on the fourth Monday of October. Had veterans not successfully lobbied during the '70s to move the holiday back to November 11, there were have been several hundred thousand more commuters on the roads in the DC area on November 11, 1987. So, as bad as traffic was that day, gridlock would have been vastly worse had it not been a Federal Government holiday.

November 10 1987 it was raining with temps falling thru the 40s all day.

Overnight it fell into the low 30s then the rain changed to snow and we got an inch of snow.

November 11 we had a forecast for a couple inches of snow. It stopped for a while, then started up again and snowed all day and the rest is history - Woodbridge got 11 inches of snow and I was beside myself with joy. I was digging snow and piling it up to embarrassing heights. This was back when I was living with my old friends in the 1980s and I just went out and jebwalked in the snow all day.

1987 was a very good year for snow for us. January 1987 was good for us as well - Jan 22 we got 14 inches, and then 4 days later we got 10 more inches of snow.

[WVclimo]

are you sure those are not stormvista maps?

I thought that too when I saw it. Not sure if Jack O was using MDA as his vendor ?