aldie 22 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12Z GFS looks like all rain in the DC metro to me with greater than 3000 feet above the surface > 0C at IAD...the 12Z Euro solution would lead me to believe the rain might end with a change to or mix with some snow, very light though, in the N/W suburbs. Wouldn't stick but it would look nice coming down. 12Z Euro verbatim, the higher elevations in W MD/PA and WV could see some heavier stuff with possible accumulations...they'd see nothing from the GFS. I think it's interesting to look at, because if in the small chance it does turn out to snow in the DC area, there is something to learn here. Just because something has a low probability of occurring doesn't mean you ignore it...as others have pointed out, it HAS snowed in DC in Oct. so it is a physical possibility. Will it? I don't know, that's why I'm watching. If this was Sept. I'd agree that just because it's Sept. means it won't snow, but the ones dismissing it simply because it's Oct. are just wrong IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Thanks. That storm is the all-time DC autumn blockbuster, even though it wasn't that bad to the west of the city. According to-- http://www.colinbeav...Snowstorms.html -- " . . . a completely unforecasted low pressure bombed off the North Carolina coast and produced a mesoscale convective snow band that passed through southern Maryland and the Washington, D.C. area. National airport received 11.5 inches of snow and some locations in Prince Georges county to the east of D.C. received up to 17 inches of snow. A storm like this was unheard of in the D.C. area in the fall and the city and surrounding areas became completely paralyzed." I think Brian Korty at HPC did put out 2-4 inches for the Veteran's day storm on his mid shift but 24 hrs before the event now one was predicting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12Z GFS looks like all rain in the DC metro to me with greater than 3000 feet above the surface > 0C at IAD...the 12Z Euro solution would lead me to believe the rain might end with a change to or mix with some snow, very light though, in the N/W suburbs. Wouldn't stick but it would look nice coming down. 12Z Euro verbatim, the higher elevations in W MD/PA and WV could see some heavier stuff with possible accumulations...they'd see nothing from the GFS. I think it's interesting to look at, because if in the small chance it does turn out to snow in the DC area, there is something to learn here. Just because something has a low probability of occurring doesn't mean you ignore it...as others have pointed out, it HAS snowed in DC in Oct. so it is a physical possibility. Will it? I don't know, that's why I'm watching. If this was Sept. I'd agree that just because it's Sept. means it won't snow, but the ones dismissing it simply because it's Oct. are just wrong IMO. dismissing it because it's oct is only one part of it. sometimes i wonder if anyone reads each others posts here. just look how much we have go wrong in complicated setups EVERY YEAR during prime winter. the OCT part is only a part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Jason asked me to write something for CWG on it tomorrow or Wed but I have a scheduling conflict Wed so I'll be writing something on the "threat" tomorrow. Right now, I'm not impressed very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Snow in October on a La Nina year. I DO NOT THINK SO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 dismissing it because it's oct is only one part of it. sometimes i wonder if anyone reads each others posts here. just look how much we have go wrong in complicated setups EVERY YEAR during prime winter. the OCT part is only a part of it. Why are you so defensive about everything lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 image I'm pretty sure DT isn't allowed to post this (being from the European model), especially publicly. Last I checked, he doesn't officially receive any of our products, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm pretty sure DT isn't allowed to post this (being from the European model), especially publicly. Last I checked, he doesn't officially receive any of our products, either. guess you better take that up with DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm pretty sure DT isn't allowed to post this (being from the European model), especially publicly. Last I checked, he doesn't officially receive any of our products, either. Probably via one of the AccuWx folks or something. May not be directly from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 deleted by wxtrix Thank you guess you better take that up with DT I'm going to have my superiors take a look at it in the morning. Probably via one of the AccuWx folks or something. May not be directly from him. Directly or not, reposting is not allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo DT is trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Directly or not, reposting is not allowed. Oh yeah, I definitely understand. I'm just saying that he may not be the primary source of the "leak" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Oh yeah, I definitely understand. I'm just saying that he may not be the primary source of the "leak" Yeah, I'm thinking he got it from a leak as well. Best we can do is just ask/tell him to remove it, but I'll leave it up to those who know more about the legal stuff than I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah, I'm thinking he got it from a leak as well. Best we can do is just ask/tell him to remove it, but I'll leave it up to those who know more about the legal stuff than I do Does that mean Fozz shouldn't have posted it on my facebook wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Does that mean Fozz shouldn't have posted it on my facebook wall? Thing is if it's out it's out... one can try to stem the flow but there's no way to get it removed entirely. However, with DT posting in on his company's FB wall it could potentially be used for profit, which is a no-no. That's a different level than posting it on a private user's wall for no cost. Again, I'm not knowledged-up on the legal ramifications of it all, so we'll see how this plays out. I think we've gone OT on this subject enough for this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Thing is if it's out it's out... one can try to stem the flow but there's no way to get it removed entirely. However, with DT posting in on his company's FB wall it could potentially be used for profit, which is a no-no. That's a different level than posting it on a private user's wall for no cost. Again, I'm not knowledged-up on the legal ramifications of it all, so we'll see how this plays out. I think we've gone OT on this subject enough for this thread It's out - but I can remove it from my wall if it will make you feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Thing is if it's out it's out... one can try to stem the flow but there's no way to get it removed entirely. However, with DT posting in on his company's FB wall it could potentially be used for profit, which is a no-no. That's a different level than posting it on a private user's wall for no cost. Again, I'm not knowledged-up on the legal ramifications of it all, so we'll see how this plays out. I think we've gone OT on this subject enough for this thread You could sell tickets to an all out wrestling match between DT and your superiors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Ian isn't admonishing us, he is just being real. The likely hood that this coastal system actually gives us snow this weekend, isn't much. Someone needs to keep us snow weenies in line. No he was definitely admonishing And it wasn't just in this thread. Look, I may be a snow weenie (at least I admit). But I'm pretty reasonable and realistic and for him to come in with an Lolz to a reasonable and very benign post is annoying. I'm not some dumb weenie drawing up accumulation maps for a storm 5 day away in late October This morning when ji was being reasonable, isaw nothing wrong with thread. He basically posted what the euro showed. It s the equivalent of Ian posted a 5 day euro showing record breaking 90's in April. Is he predicting that? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm on an iPhone so excuse the typos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 No he was definitely admonishing And it wasn't just in this thread. Look, I may be a snow weenie (at least I admit). But I'm pretty reasonable and realistic and for him to come in with an Lolz to a reasonable and very benign post is annoying. I'm not some dumb weenie drawing up accumulation maps for a storm 5 day away in late October This morning when ji was being reasonable, isaw nothing wrong with thread. He basically posted what the euro showed. It s the equivalent of Ian posted a 5 day euro showing record breaking 90's in April. Is he predicting that? No. In Ians defense, he did later say that the Lolz was probably not the best thing to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Thing is if it's out it's out... one can try to stem the flow but there's no way to get it removed entirely. However, with DT posting in on his company's FB wall it could potentially be used for profit, which is a no-no. That's a different level than posting it on a private user's wall for no cost. Again, I'm not knowledged-up on the legal ramifications of it all, so we'll see how this plays out. I think we've gone OT on this subject enough for this thread Hard not to laugh at this situation...enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Who's this DT guy anyways? I've heard him mentioned a gazillion times here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 No he was definitely admonishing And it wasn't just in this thread. Look, I may be a snow weenie (at least I admit). But I'm pretty reasonable and realistic and for him to come in with an Lolz to a reasonable and very benign post is annoying. I'm not some dumb weenie drawing up accumulation maps for a storm 5 day away in late October This morning when ji was being reasonable, isaw nothing wrong with thread. He basically posted what the euro showed. It s the equivalent of Ian posted a 5 day euro showing record breaking 90's in April. Is he predicting that? No. I'm defensive and you're sensitive (midlo liked being called a snow weenie!). Yeah it's true I get annoyed with people who like snow only, because many get carried away with it and always run to extremes and quite a few care less about how it happens meteorologically. Ji posted about the Euro at first rather than some broader storm threat. Then there were snow maps etc. To me it's early for this considering last year was pretty ugly in this subforum. You can say whatever you want about me but I'm in this forum talking weather all year. I thought your statement was funny that a month later you'd give it a real legit look. It's a convoluted pattern that needs to come together as shown now -- 5 days out -- to give us a cold rain. If we lived in WV I may be a bit more excited myself. When it comes to snow discussion being overly measured is like the worst evil possible. And as Katie already noted I said my lolz were probably a bad idea. But you got me hours later.. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Hard not to consider at least potential for wet flakes at this point. LWX made reference to ptype in the afd. Coming in at night on friday with a decent 500mb setup (at least on the models) and cold enough air aloft. I totally doubt any real chance at accum snow (if any snow at all) but there is a chance at this point to see flakes coming down. THAT is enough for me to enjoy the track. It would be pretty cool to see snow falling again and seeing it in Oct would make this fall memorable imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Who's this DT guy anyways? I've heard him mentioned a gazillion times here. he's a mental therapist that used to provide professional help to a few members of the Board and quite often, the only sane person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hard not to consider at least potential for wet flakes at this point. LWX made reference to ptype in the afd. Coming in at night on friday with a decent 500mb setup (at least on the models) and cold enough air aloft. I totally doubt any real chance at accum snow (if any snow at all) but there is a chance at this point to see flakes coming down. THAT is enough for me to enjoy the track. It would be pretty cool to see snow falling again and seeing it in Oct would make this fall memorable imo. This. I don't expect ~4 as the Euro map has for me, but even seeing a rain/snow mix the last weekend of October would be pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 he's a mental therapist that used to provide professional help to a few members of the Board and quite often, the only sane person I've heard alot of people describe DT many different ways but THIS is a new one. Sane if he lived on shutter island maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hard not to laugh at this situation...enjoy Not sure why you would laugh... I'm aware of how inane it all is on a grand scale, but the fact of the matter is someone (who in this case owns what could be considered a competing company) posted another company's paid subscription product for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Not sure why you would laugh... I'm aware of how inane it all is on a grand scale, but the fact of the matter is someone (who in this case owns what could be considered a competing company) posted another company's paid subscription product for free. sorry, it was more like a short chuckle in fun, but seriously if there is someone in the world who could ban DT from ever looking at the Euro again, the world would be a better place. you should get your boss to send him a cease and desist for fun at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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