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the October snowstorm Ian Disaster its going to be a long winter thread


Ji

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Backlash! But Zwyts says makes sense though. Here is the 120hr 12z EURO SLP/850 T composite... cold rain ftw on this panel. In before Zwyts says something about how I am a silly poster for posting this ;)

:facepalm:

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yes...I know...I mentioned that all 3 were ninos a number of posts back

Silly me, you did! I somehow skimmed over that part.

Out of curiosity, how do we know that there were Ninas (or Ninos, for that matter) way back when? Are there old ship reports of water temps in the Pacific? Is it an educated guess based on an amalgamation of other factors?

They do stuff. I don't use pre-1950 data myself, but I thought I'd include the older info since there were only two post-1950 Nina events to look at.

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If current data verifies, this should be an elevation event from the BR into W.Va., possible above 1000' , and likely above 3000'. GFS and Euro approaching consensus on event, but Euro a little warmer at 6z Sat. with 850 w. of I81 compared to GFS along BR.

it's still at a minimum like 4 days off and at a max 6.. also dependent on a frontrunner storm. im not sure 'consensus' means jack at this point.

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it's still at a minimum like 4 days off and at a max 6.. also dependent on a frontrunner storm. im not sure 'consensus' means jack at this point.

agreed, "consensus" doesn't mean "Jack".... unless it verifies. It is interesting to see the 12z GFS and ECMWF both in the court of support for some type of event for 110 - 130 hrs. If that event occurs, climo and temp. profiles suggest an elevation event. The trending toward consensus is an upgrade from 6z.

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anyone know what the euro snow map is showing? 24 hr totals? less? it seems really low in spots for the QPF (particularly NE of here into New England).

From the 12z Euro clown map:

Storm totals showing almost no snowfall east of I-95... a nice foot+ swath runs from south-central PA up through southern ME (with one small disconnect in central PA). Small 2 ft. max in western MA up on the Berkshires.

NW MD cashes in with 8-12" ...northern MD from BWI to PHL pretty much running on the edge of the snow gradient in the 2" range. DCA/IAD right on the edge of the bigger stuff to the NW. Snow shield goes all the way out to western PA and central WV.

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From the 12z Euro clown map:

Storm totals showing almost no snowfall east of I-95... a nice foot+ swath runs from south-central PA up through southern ME (with one small disconnect in central PA). Small 2 ft. max in western MA up on the Berkshires.

NW MD cashes in with 8-12" ...northern MD from BWI to PHL pretty much running on the edge of the snow gradient in the 2" range. DCA/IAD right on the edge of the bigger stuff to the NW. Snow shield goes all the way out to western PA and central WV.

cool. i meant the wunderground one specifically but those totals back up that it's showing a short period or wrong.

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cool. i meant the wunderground one specifically but those totals back up that it's showing a short period or wrong.

Yeah, I just figured I'd pull the data off of the MDA site just to get a grasp on the total affected area and actual model-estimated storm totals (as unlikely as they are).

Ian, I think Mark was talking about the underground one

It's not as detailed, but it's a lot easier to look at MDA's maps vs. wunderground (I wish we would contour stuff that's under 2" :()

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My fault, I'd forgotten about that one. We did get snow here; I believe we ended up with 5 - 6 inches out here.

Thanks. That storm is the all-time DC autumn blockbuster, even though it wasn't that bad to the west of the city. According to-- http://www.colinbeav...Snowstorms.html -- " . . . a completely unforecasted low pressure bombed off the North Carolina coast and produced a mesoscale convective snow band that passed through southern Maryland and the Washington, D.C. area. National airport received 11.5 inches of snow and some locations in Prince Georges county to the east of D.C. received up to 17 inches of snow. A storm like this was unheard of in the D.C. area in the fall and the city and surrounding areas became completely paralyzed."

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