mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It would be even nicer if those rules were flipped. Touche ... I posted one image ITT...the rest have been posts defending you, or Ji, or asking questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Six words Five words and one contraction that sum up this minimal "threat": Not going to happen it's October fixed for no good reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 5 accum, 10 trace: And while it remains a footnote for at least one more month, it can snow during October in Washington. Accumulating snow has fallen on five days (out of 4,340 in the record through 2010). The earliest accumulating snow of the month — and on record — fell on the 10th in 1979 (yep, at National!) when 0.3” was measured. The most October snow in one day was 2” on the 30th in 1925 (with another 0.2” the day after). Ten other days have witnessed a trace of snow in the month. http://www.washingto...ujrNL_blog.html Thanks for the re-post... this may incite some weenie collateral, but could you post the years that the measured/trace events occurred? It would be interesting to go back and see the setups for some of the events. EDIT: or zwyts since he seems to have the info handy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 it was 3 events Yeah I broke it down as days per that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Its very rare to beat climo by 2 months. Plain and simple. But the models do make a bit of sense in what their trying to show. CAA does build back in behind the system on friday and the MA is in the left exit region of the jet streak among other little things. Will it all work out that way? Meh, or mabye even nah... No matter what though, it looks like things are going to be unsettled for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 you need an explanation why someone isn't optimistic about an accumulating snow event in DC/Balt being progged by models at 120 hours in October? well, when you put it that way... no. However... ....forget it, sorry I said anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'll go back to OT... carry on people... carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Thanks for the re-post... this may incite some weenie collateral, but could you post the years that the measured/trace events occurred? It would be interesting to go back and see the setups for some of the events. EDIT: or zwyts since he seems to have the info handy My oct breakdown sheet is at home but I can pull it from the main set when I get back to my desk tho matt should have the accum dates at least if not trace ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 We have now spent more time debating why no one should track this event than we have actually tracking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 My oct breakdown sheet is at home but I can pull it from the main set when I get back to my desk tho matt should have the accum dates at least if not trace ones. Good deal... thanks in advance if you do get around to it later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Date Snow 10/23/1889 T 10/05/1892 T 10/30/1917 T 10/29/1925 T 10/28/1953 T 10/15/1954 T 10/30/1954 T 10/27/1957 T 10/19/1972 T 10/20/1974 T 10/30/1925 2 10/20/1940 1.4 10/10/1979 0.3 10/31/1925 0.2 10/19/1940 0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 10/10/1979 10/19-20/1940 10/30-31/1925 Nino, Nino, Nino. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Snow or no snow, the clouds from the storm might wreck chances for a hard freeze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Date Snow 10/23/1889 T 10/05/1892 T 10/30/1917 T 10/29/1925 T 10/28/1953 T 10/15/1954 T 10/30/1954 T 10/27/1957 T 10/19/1972 T 10/20/1974 T 10/30/1925 2 10/20/1940 1.4 10/10/1979 0.3 10/31/1925 0.2 10/19/1940 0.1 Awesome. Ninas: 1974, 1954, 1917, 1892, 1889 October 1954 isn't that bad of an analog... even when rolling 1954 into the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 ...and 14 inches in Warren County, along with the first thundersnow I can recall. Just a wicked event; it's every bit as memorable to me as the Feb '83, Mar '93, Jan '96, etc. I look back now with the experiences of sub 60 degree temps being anomolously cold now for early Oct and wonder how on earth it ever happened. The next earliest snowfall that I can recall was the day before T-day storm in '89. That's 7 weeks later. That's pretty amazing. Did the Veterans Day Storm of 1987 miss your area? That day (November 11), DCA recorded 11.5 inches of snow, but IAD had only 5.3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Awesome. Ninas: 1974, 1954, 1917, 1892, 1889 Out of curiosity, how do we know that there were Ninas (or Ninos, for that matter) way back when? Are there old ship reports of water temps in the Pacific? Is it an educated guess based on an amalgamation of other factors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nino, Nino, Nino. Thanks I originally posted not 1979 because it's not indicated in red as such per this link, but I think using the definition at the top of the link-page it was barely a NINO http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I originally posted not 1979 because it's not indicated in red as such per this link, but I think using the definition at the top of the link-page it was barely a NINO http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml edit: nah, need 5 months at or above .5C and 79 only had 3, so it was technically neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think the thread was more or less intended to come off lightheartedly rather than serious interest, it's not like anyone here is expecting it to happen or that it has any chance of happening. I've never understood the snow-weenie state of mind, 12/26/10 was a storm that I think serves every excuse to exaserbate the disappointment and hysterics, the models pulled a cruel joke in the MA, but this isn't even close to that range yet let alone it being October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Backlash! But Zwyts says makes sense though. Here is the 120hr 12z EURO SLP/850 T composite... cold rain ftw on this panel. In before Zwyts says something about how I am a silly poster for posting this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 At 120, low over outer banks, 850 line up by Hagerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Backlash! But Zwyts says makes sense though. Here is the 120hr 12z EURO SLP/850 T composite... cold rain ftw on this panel. In before Zwyts says something about how I am a silly poster for posting this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You know me better than that. I was just being sarcastic. We never get backlash around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Winter cancel 18z GFS will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 yes...I know...I mentioned that all 3 were ninos a number of posts back Silly me, you did! I somehow skimmed over that part. Out of curiosity, how do we know that there were Ninas (or Ninos, for that matter) way back when? Are there old ship reports of water temps in the Pacific? Is it an educated guess based on an amalgamation of other factors? They do stuff. I don't use pre-1950 data myself, but I thought I'd include the older info since there were only two post-1950 Nina events to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 hr 144 has a 980mb low east of cape cod pretty damn big storm for this time of year, looks like the mountains from wva up to NE. do well with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Silly me, you did! I somehow skimmed over that part. They do stuff. I don't use pre-1950 data myself, but I thought I'd include the older info since there were only two post-1950 Nina events to look at. Makes sense. Otherwise, they wouldn't be able to come up with stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 hr 144 has a 980mb low east of cape cod pretty damn big storm for this time of year, looks like the mountains from wva up to NE. do well with this. I've missed your euro play-by-plays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I've missed your euro play-by-plays Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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