ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 DC/Balt has seen accumulating snow in OCT 3 times in 125+ years......and all 3 times were Ninos where there was probably a southern stream and moisture overrunning ahead of system......given that we have a 1-2% chance of seeing snow in any given October, this is a Nina and we have no southern stream, but some phase situation that becomes a coastal, I give DC/Balt metro a 1% chance of seeing accumulating snow next weekend....even if everything works out perfectly (which it won't), boundary levels will probably let us down....maybe(5%) someone like Trixie sees some flakes fly or wakes up with a trash can event that melts in 1 hour....what is there to track exactly? The novelty of first flakes is usually a lot more interesting than an equivalent event later in the winter. I'll be much more inclined to follow a trashcan top event here in October...I'd probably completely ignore it in January. Your accumulation probabilities are probably correct or close, but I guess its a question of how interesting is it to track some October flakes that are the first of the year vs a realistic snow threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I don't think anyone in this thread fully believes we are going to be getting a full blown snowstorm this weekend. Maybe flurries out west? Regardless, It would be nice (like Matt has done) if those who are against it, would explain why instead of just poo-pooing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 This pretty much sums it up. Granted, snow falling and snow accumulating are two different things, but that's probably not worth going into at this point. Even with the GFS "support", it's still above freezing in the lowest 100-150 mb of the atmosphere, which would convert any potential snow to rain before it hit the ground, anyway. 5 accum, 10 trace: And while it remains a footnote for at least one more month, it can snow during October in Washington. Accumulating snow has fallen on five days (out of 4,340 in the record through 2010). The earliest accumulating snow of the month — and on record — fell on the 10th in 1979 (yep, at National!) when 0.3” was measured. The most October snow in one day was 2” on the 30th in 1925 (with another 0.2” the day after). Ten other days have witnessed a trace of snow in the month. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/what-is-washington-dcs-weather-like-in-october-breaking-down-norms-and-extremes/2011/10/02/gIQA3ujrNL_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The novelty of first flakes is usually a lot more interesting than an equivalent event later in the winter. I'll be much more inclined to follow a trashcan top event here in October...I'd probably completely ignore it in January. Your accumulation probabilities are probably correct or close, but I guess its a question of how interesting is it to track some October flakes that are the first of the year vs a realistic snow threat? if it gets within 48-72hours and it looks like some/most of us will see non accumulting flakes and someone could see a trash can event then I think it is interesting...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I don't think anyone in this thread fully believes we are going to be getting a full blown snowstorm this weekend. Maybe flurries out west? Regardless, It would be nice (like Matt has done) if those who are against it, would explain why instead of just poo-pooing it. Wrong. You forgot about Ji. He sees snow in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Regardless, It would be nice (like Matt has done) if those who are against it, would explain why instead of just poo-pooing it. It would be even nicer if those rules were flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Six words that sum up this minimal "threat": Not going to happen it's October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 5 accum, 10 trace: And while it remains a footnote for at least one more month, it can snow during October in Washington. Accumulating snow has fallen on five days (out of 4,340 in the record through 2010). The earliest accumulating snow of the month — and on record — fell on the 10th in 1979 (yep, at National!) when 0.3” was measured. The most October snow in one day was 2” on the 30th in 1925 (with another 0.2” the day after). Ten other days have witnessed a trace of snow in the month. http://www.washingto...ujrNL_blog.html it was 3 events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It would be even nicer if those rules were flipped. Touche ... I posted one image ITT...the rest have been posts defending you, or Ji, or asking questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I don't think anyone in this thread fully believes we are going to be getting a full blown snowstorm this weekend. Maybe flurries out west? Regardless, It would be nice (like Matt has done) if those who are against it, would explain why instead of just poo-pooing it. you need an explanation why someone isn't optimistic about an accumulating snow event in DC/Balt being progged by models at 120 hours in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Six words Five words and one contraction that sum up this minimal "threat": Not going to happen it's October fixed for no good reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 5 accum, 10 trace: And while it remains a footnote for at least one more month, it can snow during October in Washington. Accumulating snow has fallen on five days (out of 4,340 in the record through 2010). The earliest accumulating snow of the month — and on record — fell on the 10th in 1979 (yep, at National!) when 0.3” was measured. The most October snow in one day was 2” on the 30th in 1925 (with another 0.2” the day after). Ten other days have witnessed a trace of snow in the month. http://www.washingto...ujrNL_blog.html Thanks for the re-post... this may incite some weenie collateral, but could you post the years that the measured/trace events occurred? It would be interesting to go back and see the setups for some of the events. EDIT: or zwyts since he seems to have the info handy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 it was 3 events Yeah I broke it down as days per that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Its very rare to beat climo by 2 months. Plain and simple. But the models do make a bit of sense in what their trying to show. CAA does build back in behind the system on friday and the MA is in the left exit region of the jet streak among other little things. Will it all work out that way? Meh, or mabye even nah... No matter what though, it looks like things are going to be unsettled for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 you need an explanation why someone isn't optimistic about an accumulating snow event in DC/Balt being progged by models at 120 hours in October? well, when you put it that way... no. However... ....forget it, sorry I said anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'll go back to OT... carry on people... carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Thanks for the re-post... this may incite some weenie collateral, but could you post the years that the measured/trace events occurred? It would be interesting to go back and see the setups for some of the events. EDIT: or zwyts since he seems to have the info handy My oct breakdown sheet is at home but I can pull it from the main set when I get back to my desk tho matt should have the accum dates at least if not trace ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 We have now spent more time debating why no one should track this event than we have actually tracking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 My oct breakdown sheet is at home but I can pull it from the main set when I get back to my desk tho matt should have the accum dates at least if not trace ones. Good deal... thanks in advance if you do get around to it later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Thanks for the re-post... this may incite some weenie collateral, but could you post the years that the measured/trace events occurred? It would be interesting to go back and see the setups for some of the events. EDIT: or zwyts since he seems to have the info handy 10/10/1979 10/19-20/1940 10/30-31/1925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Date Snow 10/23/1889 T 10/05/1892 T 10/30/1917 T 10/29/1925 T 10/28/1953 T 10/15/1954 T 10/30/1954 T 10/27/1957 T 10/19/1972 T 10/20/1974 T 10/30/1925 2 10/20/1940 1.4 10/10/1979 0.3 10/31/1925 0.2 10/19/1940 0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 10/10/1979 10/19-20/1940 10/30-31/1925 Nino, Nino, Nino. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Snow or no snow, the clouds from the storm might wreck chances for a hard freeze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Date Snow 10/23/1889 T 10/05/1892 T 10/30/1917 T 10/29/1925 T 10/28/1953 T 10/15/1954 T 10/30/1954 T 10/27/1957 T 10/19/1972 T 10/20/1974 T 10/30/1925 2 10/20/1940 1.4 10/10/1979 0.3 10/31/1925 0.2 10/19/1940 0.1 Awesome. Ninas: 1974, 1954, 1917, 1892, 1889 October 1954 isn't that bad of an analog... even when rolling 1954 into the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 ...and 14 inches in Warren County, along with the first thundersnow I can recall. Just a wicked event; it's every bit as memorable to me as the Feb '83, Mar '93, Jan '96, etc. I look back now with the experiences of sub 60 degree temps being anomolously cold now for early Oct and wonder how on earth it ever happened. The next earliest snowfall that I can recall was the day before T-day storm in '89. That's 7 weeks later. That's pretty amazing. Did the Veterans Day Storm of 1987 miss your area? That day (November 11), DCA recorded 11.5 inches of snow, but IAD had only 5.3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Awesome. Ninas: 1974, 1954, 1917, 1892, 1889 Out of curiosity, how do we know that there were Ninas (or Ninos, for that matter) way back when? Are there old ship reports of water temps in the Pacific? Is it an educated guess based on an amalgamation of other factors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nino, Nino, Nino. Thanks I originally posted not 1979 because it's not indicated in red as such per this link, but I think using the definition at the top of the link-page it was barely a NINO http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I originally posted not 1979 because it's not indicated in red as such per this link, but I think using the definition at the top of the link-page it was barely a NINO http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml edit: nah, need 5 months at or above .5C and 79 only had 3, so it was technically neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think the thread was more or less intended to come off lightheartedly rather than serious interest, it's not like anyone here is expecting it to happen or that it has any chance of happening. I've never understood the snow-weenie state of mind, 12/26/10 was a storm that I think serves every excuse to exaserbate the disappointment and hysterics, the models pulled a cruel joke in the MA, but this isn't even close to that range yet let alone it being October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nino, Nino, Nino. Thanks yes...I know...I mentioned that all 3 were ninos a number of posts back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.