usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 From what I'm seeing, a decent amount of the precip is snow for DC/BAL if it switches around hr 45 as we get precip out to around 51/54. Yoda that call seems about right. The soundings didn't show snow until around 15Z in Leesburg. Dc would not be snow until closer to 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well. If nothing else it should be pretty out here on Saturday. I am going to have to update my signature earlier than I normally would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Clown map ftw.... ETA model... http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif :arrowhead::arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Clown map ftw.... ETA model... http://wxcaster4.com...UCHERA_84HR.gif :arrowhead::arrowhead: dude why even post that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 dude why even post that? if nothing else people should at least read back to see maps that have already been posted. we need to be a little more careful when there are 100+ in a thread not to have it fly 400 miles an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 dude why even post that? Well you should know by now - people post all models. We've seen the KMA, JMA and Brazillian in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah but it seems like 1 out every 4 posts has a clown map on it. Even worse the posts get all sqished together when there are tons of photos which makes it even more annoying. Maybe I'm overreacting, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah but it seems like 1 out every 4 posts has a clown map. Maybe I'm overreacting, sorry. My apologies, figured prefacing it with "clown map ftw" made it obvious I wasn't taking this seriously. It's October, its ~60 degrees outside, and a computer model has us getting a foot of snow. Of course it won't happen, and probably nothing even remotely close to it will. But it's still... unusual. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You want to see panic.....let those totals happen. Pepco and BGE would be screwed. We'd all be without power for 1-2 weeks. Thank goodness it isn't going to happen. Clown map ftw.... ETA model... http://wxcaster4.com...UCHERA_84HR.gif :arrowhead::arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Those clown maps use 10:1 ratios I believe. As Ian mentioned, you'd be looking at more like 5-7:1 with the expected thermal profile. PSU Hoffman storm last year had 6:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well you should know by now - people post all models. We've seen the KMA, JMA and Brazillian in the past. Yeah, what he posted was the NAM really so I mean take it fwiw, wasnt the actual ETA im pretty sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Those clown maps use 10:1 ratios I believe. As Ian mentioned, you'd be looking at more like 5-7:1 with the expected thermal profile. PSU Hoffman storm last year had 6:1 ratios. I was thinking more like 4-6:1.....regardless, you're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 My apologies, figured prefacing it with "clown map ftw" made it obvious I wasn't taking this seriously. It's October, its ~60 degrees outside, and a computer model has us getting a foot of snow. Of course it won't happen, and probably nothing even remotely close to it will. But it's still... unusual. That's all. I should apologize, I overreacted, IE9 can't handle all the photos so at least hoping not to see the same image posted 8 times per page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Man, no love from HPC for northern Md. counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Those clown maps use 10:1 ratios I believe. As Ian mentioned, you'd be looking at more like 5-7:1 with the expected thermal profile. PSU Hoffman storm last year had 6:1 ratios. That one dropped 14 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Those clown maps use 10:1 ratios I believe. As Ian mentioned, you'd be looking at more like 5-7:1 with the expected thermal profile. PSU Hoffman storm last year had 6:1 ratios. Do all free ones do that or are there any that have other variables? I saw one from StormVista that was considerably lower if not half lower (8" max stripe running up just east/west of DC). I suppose I'm not necessarily a fan of those maps in the heart of Jan/Feb anyway though! But we have certainly seen a lot of them in this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well you should know by now - people post all models. We've seen the KMA, JMA and Brazillian in the past. Before this thread runs out and we go to Ian Disaster 2: what is the policy on model run threads ? It used to be a tradition of these boards. Is it frowned on now with the growth of the group ? I think if you have a model thread when we have something to track, you can contain all most of the images in one place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That one dropped 14 inches here. Yeah, and there was about 2" of liquid equivalent. Do all free ones do that or are there any that have other variables? I saw one from StormVista that was considerably lower if not half lower (8" max stripe running up just east/west of DC). I suppose I'm not necessarily a fan of those maps in the heart of Jan/Feb anyway though! But we have certainly seen a lot of them in this thread... Maybe some are more sophisticated than others. But from what I've seen, they're usually pretty close to 10:1. As you know, snow accumulation is such a fickle thing, even more so with marginal conditions like this. Any sort of clown map has value only marginally above entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Man, no love from HPC for northern Md. counties. It is kind of an odd line right on the border tho the experimental has a similar (if a bit north) gradient. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Before this thread runs out and we go to Ian Disaster 2: what is the policy on model run threads ? It used to be a tradition of these boards. Is it frowned on now with the growth of the group ? I think if you have a model thread when we have something to track, you can contain all most of the images in one place. This storm sorta creeped up early of course. I think a model thread separate from a forecasting/tracking/obs type thread would be great personally. Sometimes you want one or the other and not a giant mishmash. We're still too wedded to superthreads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This storm sorta creeped up early of course. I think a model thread separate from a forecasting/tracking/obs type thread would be great personally. Sometimes you want one or the other and not a giant mishmash. We're still too wedded to superthreads... Agree with all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean is TOO wound up for us. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12048.gif Probably would end as snow. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean is TOO wound up for us. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12048.gif Probably would end as snow. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12060.gif fwiw, they were always too far west last year (remember they were always our savior?) we have an early shot at seeing whether the same thing happens this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean is TOO wound up for us. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12048.gif Probably would end as snow. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12060.gif I dunno if its too wound up... looks like snow at least to the BR and west at 48... changing over as you get to I-95. Too bad we can't see 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean is TOO wound up for us. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12048.gif Probably would end as snow. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12060.gif we probably wanted to see today's runs tomorrow evening most likely. it would be fitting if the nw trend wins too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean is TOO wound up for us. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12048.gif Probably would end as snow. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12060.gif Being objective to the situation, if you're someone who wants snow you take the positive that the storm is going to really deepen and bring its own cold air in, now all you want is a bit of a "re-correct" back to the east. Just for fun, I'll be staying up for the 00z's since the Caps-Oil game starts after 9:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I dunno if its too wound up... looks like snow at least to the BR and west at 48... changing over as you get to I-95. Too bad we can't see 54 Those maps are difficult to gauge since they are 12 hr precip. The 0c line does back up pretty far though it seems and of course that's not the rain snow line unless you're a few thousand feet in the air. For the lower elevations we really need perfection. So pray to the NAM god all evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Man oh man, can't wait until 0z. Hate these lulls in between runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Man oh man, can't wait until 0z. Hate these lulls in between runs. SREFs are still another hour away.... I am waiting for the 18z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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