mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 soundings off the 18Z NAM for BWI and mby are incredible definitely all snow at 48 hrs (isothermal) and probably wet snow at 45 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 While the 18z NAM looks so pretty... it likely overcorrected to the EXTREME. If the 18z GFS looks like the 18z NAM, I may take a closer look. That would be a one in a million years storm IMO. Though we did have like a once in a 1000 year flooding event around here in September... and a once in a long time (over 500 years?) earthquake near 6.0 in August... so why not another once in a lifetime event in October to continue the trend? Consider what we have seen here in the DC region this year already - highs in the 105 degree range, incredible rainfall, 20 inches just in September alone. Also consider the extremes in the southern Plains, Austin Texas with THREE MONTHS of 100 plus weather Extremes are the norm this year. Why not an extreme anomalous snow event for the I95 corridor two months early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Next up its the 18z RGEM!!! 36 hrs (06z SAT) -- http://www.weatherof...st/3294_100.gif 48 hrs should be incredible with that 700mb map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Last year, I only had 5.5" or so and lost power due to tree damage. I'm assuming that 5.5" was after the leaves had fallen, or I suppose the damaged trees might have been evergreens. Then I'm guessing that 3 or 4 inches of wet snow on leaved trees would be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is an aweful long thread for a cold rain storm I will believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 October 10, 1979. The last time a decent snowstorm hit the Shenandoah Valley in October. It is rare but it does happen. I think Dulles even got over an inch with this storm. That's a cool picture, and although I can't speak for Dulles, we got a decent covering in Largo, MD, from that storm. And for the tree-huggers, even that did some damage to some shrubs and even the smaller trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Consider what we have seen here in the DC region this year already - highs in the 105 degree range, incredible rainfall, 20 inches just in September alone. Also consider the extremes in the southern Plains, Austin Texas with THREE MONTHS of 100 plus weather Extremes are the norm this year. Why not an extreme anomalous snow event for the I95 corridor two months early? just wait till we get paid back with like 3 years of total boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is an aweful long thread for a cold rain storm I will believe it when I see it. we didnt even get this many posts fo the 1,000 yr rain train .. snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 We need a 1000 yr snow event. What would that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 An absolute winter weenie fantasy on the NAM. WOW! Reminds me a bit of the rush hour nightmare last winter that hit like a ton of bricks with marginal surface temps but still reached 5-6 inches here in Arlington in just a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z RGEM 48 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 We need a 1000 yr snow event. What would that be? Maybe a couple of the February Fury events in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z RGEM 48 -- http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif juicy...hard to tell about thermal profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z RGEM 48 -- http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif looking a lot like the 18Z NAM through 48 hrs more to come after that per 7h map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 juicy...hard to tell about thermal profiles I looks a little warm but I think that is typical of the canadian models. At any rate, it is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 juicy...hard to tell about thermal profiles I guess the dashed line is the 0C line... parallels I-95 it looks like at 48... could be that S and E of DC rain... DC corridor mix.. out to BR snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I guess the dashed line is the 0C line... parallels I-95 it looks like at 48... could be that S and E of DC rain... DC corridor mix.. out to BR snow actually looks like 1000-700 mb critical thickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Dark clouds approaching from NW - cold front about to whoop our butt Ahead of it, cumulus moving from WNW, above that, cirrocumulus and other ML clouds moving from SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Models hath giveth back what they hadst taken away....... A lot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Rain to snow at 48 on 18z GFS? Could be a bit earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Cold air certainly on its way....32 with light snow in Bradford, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 just wait till we get paid back with like 3 years of total boring June '06 to Dec '09? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Rain to snow at 48 on 18z GFS? Could be a bit earlier... looks that way...between 45 and 48 950/925 hpa goes below 0... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I know that we got hit back in the late 70's or early 80's with the Veterans day snowstorm. Does this potential storm mirror the Veterans day storm in any way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Amped and Juiced, Just how I like it. I'm going by the 540dm line for rain snow. Forget my earlier post I believe most areas will see some snow falling out of the sky. Accumulation is another story. If the storm moves offshore in a more easterly direction we have a better shot at wraparound and more areas may see accumulation. The time of day may make it rough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 From what I'm seeing, a decent amount of the precip is snow for DC/BAL if it switches around hr 45 as we get precip out to around 51/54. Yoda that call seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 looks that way...between 45 and 48 950/925 hpa goes below 0... It did to me as well.. just wanted to be sure someone else saw what I saw too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Take with gain of salt... but yes, that says 3" I-95 N and W... 6" out towards BR/Shenandoah/Catocin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 looks that way...between 45 and 48 950/925 hpa goes below 0... [/quote To me it looks slightly warmer initially than the 12Z GFS. Still pretty similar but nothing like the NAM in terms of temps or total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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