usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If this solution is still there tomorrow at this time...then I might be inclined to believe it and then divide by 4 Yep. it's good to see that you have wised up in your old age. It's certainly an incredible looking run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Local forecast has added wording for snow on Saturday afternoon. Models are cooling and adding more precip. Not sure I believe it though 1) This is the southern Mid Atlantic 2) This is late October, not mid January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z NAM has a 2.23 marker through 54 hrs total precip in SE FFX CTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If this were late December with cold ground and 2 inch water in the form of snow - I'D BE TOTALLY JAZZED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 OT - Thanks to your avatar byline stormtracker - I'm intrigued by law again http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mens_rea http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strict_liability_(criminal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm just happy that we have something to track and get the forum hot again with chatter. The past few weeks have been rather boring. So, this scores a 10 for the entertainment factor. I just like to watch the snow fall. So, I'm perfectly fine with it not sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Anyone up for a snow chase to Jefferson County in W. VA.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If those clown maps came to fruition, PEPCO would implode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvaspartan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Stop on by Jeb...I doubt we are going to get much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Seeing the NAM come aboard (although I'm a bit shocked at how bullish it is) really adds some confidence in at seeing at least some flakes fall. The euro hasn't wavered. The GFS came right around. Now the previously out to lunch NAM is seing the same thing as the globals. That + the fact that we are less than 72 hrs away is really something. Anybody sleeping tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'll pass Come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Harris Teeter has snow /ice grips for your shoes for $14. Get em now before they are gone by Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Seeing the NAM come aboard (although I'm a bit shocked at how bullish it is) really adds some confidence in at seeing at least some flakes fall. The euro hasn't wavered. The GFS came right around. Now the previously out to lunch NAM is seing the same thing as the globals. That + the fact that we are less than 72 hrs away is really something. Anybody sleeping tomorrow night? While the 18z NAM looks so pretty... it likely overcorrected to the EXTREME. If the 18z GFS looks like the 18z NAM, I may take a closer look. That would be a one in a million years storm IMO. Though we did have like a once in a 1000 year flooding event around here in September... and a once in a long time (over 500 years?) earthquake near 6.0 in August... so why not another once in a lifetime event in October to continue the trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 check out that cold air over Wisconsin headed our way <Flounder>Oh Boy<Flounder> http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 While the 18z NAM looks so pretty... it likely overcorrected to the EXTREME. If the 18z GFS looks like the 18z NAM, I may take a closer look. That would be a one in a million years storm IMO. Though we did have like a once in a 1000 year flooding event around here in September... and a once in a long time (over 500 years?) earthquake near 6.0 in August... so why not another once in a lifetime event in October to continue the trend? models don't overcorrect....it can be wrong...but it has no memory of its past solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Seeing the NAM come aboard (although I'm a bit shocked at how bullish it is) really adds some confidence in at seeing at least some flakes fall. The euro hasn't wavered. The GFS came right around. Now the previously out to lunch NAM is seing the same thing as the globals. That + the fact that we are less than 72 hrs away is really something. Anybody sleeping tomorrow night? It just seems too implausible to verify like that, the likelyhood of even a dusting seems low in my opinion at least inside the beltway. And frankly I don't want the large majectic trees around here to crumble. As for sleep it depends whether or not we're in for accums, I'm not staying up to watch a few wet snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is what I imagine being addicted to drugs is like. I'm telling myself over and over that I don't want to see any snow that would be considered heavy, but, you guessed it, I'm sitting here hanging on every word, every model, subconsiously hoping it does. Sickness is the only word that can describe this. And if it somehow is like this until Mid-March, I'd saying marriage counseling will be the hot topic issue around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm on board for at least seeing flakes this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Does anyone have any thoughts on how much accumulation would cause significant tree damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Seeing the NAM come aboard (although I'm a bit shocked at how bullish it is) really adds some confidence in at seeing at least some flakes fall. The euro hasn't wavered. The GFS came right around. Now the previously out to lunch NAM is seing the same thing as the globals. That + the fact that we are less than 72 hrs away is really something. Anybody sleeping tomorrow night? Yes, I am. I won't even stay up until the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Does anyone have any thoughts on how much accumulation would cause significant tree damage? Last year, I only had 5.5" or so and lost power due to tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yes, I am. I won't even stay up until the GFS. Not even a peek Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 While the 18z NAM looks so pretty... it likely overcorrected to the EXTREME. If the 18z GFS looks like the 18z NAM, I may take a closer look. That would be a one in a million years storm IMO. Though we did have like a once in a 1000 year flooding event around here in September... and a once in a long time (over 500 years?) earthquake near 6.0 in August... so why not another once in a lifetime event in October to continue the trend? Oh I hear ya, NAM solution = no way no how. But, coming to basic same setup @ 500 and 850 is pretty cool. It seems pretty likely that the 500 vort will track where we want it and coastal development to follow. Could be a nice dynamic storm. 65 degree water off the MD/VA coast should be a good contribution to an overall nice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Does anyone have any thoughts on how much accumulation would cause significant tree damage? 3" of the snow-type progged on the NAM would be enough to bring down some limbs. I have a hunch we aren't getting anywhere near 3" along the I95 corridor S of the MD/PA line. It's an un-scientific hunch, too anamolous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not even a peek Wes? Nope, this time of year it's too late for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is unbelievable. - If these runs keep up like this - I just might have to get off the Battle Pirates and track weather for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Next up its the 18z RGEM!!! 36 hrs (06z SAT) -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 October 10, 1979. The last time a decent snowstorm hit the Shenandoah Valley in October. It is rare but it does happen. I think Dulles even got over an inch with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Does anyone have any thoughts on how much accumulation would cause significant tree damage? With leaves on the trees, not much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.