mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM looks good, I'm gonna go ahead and ride it for now....who's with me? count me in----------> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 that's not even pessimism. if we get 12"+ snow from this storm i'll find a new hobby effective on sunday. there won't be much more to see. tho im still skeptical of these snow maps more than normal given the warmth prior and likely bad ratios. i dunno if they're all doing 10:1 standard etc but i'd be tempted to chop that almost in half. Is that on top of the NAM precip chop. So 12 > 6 > 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 A trip to sugarloaf if pretty much a lock at this point. I'll bring the hd vid camera and a camera because I might not be around for the next oct snow in our area. It seems like there is at least a chance at a couple inches above 1k feet. Anyone else thinking about making the trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If measurable snow fell in Richmond, even out here where Midlo and I are, I would probably die of shock. I'd actually be a little annoyed as I don't know what it would do to the veggies I still have growing. The bok choy would probably survive okay, but the brussels sprouts, broccoli, and carrots might not like it too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I find the qpf amounts pretty amazing. The interplay from how rina affected this system is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is that on top of the NAM precip chop. So 12 > 6 > 3 I think that's right, cut the NAM by half, then go with the low snow ratios providing the NAM has a perfect track. How likely is the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM looks good, I'm gonna go ahead and ride it for now....who's with me? I'll pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yep, still too early to jump on it but it even cools the boundary layer to below freezing by 11 Am from Frederick to just northwest of Baltimore. It's an exciting run for the weenies. I'm suspecting that a certain black man is thinking white. If this solution is still there tomorrow at this time...then I might be inclined to believe it and then divide by 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is that on top of the NAM precip chop. So 12 > 6 > 3 At least I accurately predicted being staunchly against snow would give us a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If this solution is still there tomorrow at this time...then I might be inclined to believe it and then divide by 4 Yep. it's good to see that you have wised up in your old age. It's certainly an incredible looking run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Local forecast has added wording for snow on Saturday afternoon. Models are cooling and adding more precip. Not sure I believe it though 1) This is the southern Mid Atlantic 2) This is late October, not mid January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z NAM has a 2.23 marker through 54 hrs total precip in SE FFX CTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If this were late December with cold ground and 2 inch water in the form of snow - I'D BE TOTALLY JAZZED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 OT - Thanks to your avatar byline stormtracker - I'm intrigued by law again http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mens_rea http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strict_liability_(criminal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm just happy that we have something to track and get the forum hot again with chatter. The past few weeks have been rather boring. So, this scores a 10 for the entertainment factor. I just like to watch the snow fall. So, I'm perfectly fine with it not sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Anyone up for a snow chase to Jefferson County in W. VA.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If those clown maps came to fruition, PEPCO would implode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvaspartan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Stop on by Jeb...I doubt we are going to get much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Seeing the NAM come aboard (although I'm a bit shocked at how bullish it is) really adds some confidence in at seeing at least some flakes fall. The euro hasn't wavered. The GFS came right around. Now the previously out to lunch NAM is seing the same thing as the globals. That + the fact that we are less than 72 hrs away is really something. Anybody sleeping tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'll pass Come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Harris Teeter has snow /ice grips for your shoes for $14. Get em now before they are gone by Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Seeing the NAM come aboard (although I'm a bit shocked at how bullish it is) really adds some confidence in at seeing at least some flakes fall. The euro hasn't wavered. The GFS came right around. Now the previously out to lunch NAM is seing the same thing as the globals. That + the fact that we are less than 72 hrs away is really something. Anybody sleeping tomorrow night? While the 18z NAM looks so pretty... it likely overcorrected to the EXTREME. If the 18z GFS looks like the 18z NAM, I may take a closer look. That would be a one in a million years storm IMO. Though we did have like a once in a 1000 year flooding event around here in September... and a once in a long time (over 500 years?) earthquake near 6.0 in August... so why not another once in a lifetime event in October to continue the trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 While the 18z NAM looks so pretty... it likely overcorrected to the EXTREME. If the 18z GFS looks like the 18z NAM, I may take a closer look. That would be a one in a million years storm IMO. Though we did have like a once in a 1000 year flooding event around here in September... and a once in a long time (over 500 years?) earthquake near 6.0 in August... so why not another once in a lifetime event in October to continue the trend? models don't overcorrect....it can be wrong...but it has no memory of its past solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 check out that cold air over Wisconsin headed our way <Flounder>Oh Boy<Flounder> http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Seeing the NAM come aboard (although I'm a bit shocked at how bullish it is) really adds some confidence in at seeing at least some flakes fall. The euro hasn't wavered. The GFS came right around. Now the previously out to lunch NAM is seing the same thing as the globals. That + the fact that we are less than 72 hrs away is really something. Anybody sleeping tomorrow night? It just seems too implausible to verify like that, the likelyhood of even a dusting seems low in my opinion at least inside the beltway. And frankly I don't want the large majectic trees around here to crumble. As for sleep it depends whether or not we're in for accums, I'm not staying up to watch a few wet snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is what I imagine being addicted to drugs is like. I'm telling myself over and over that I don't want to see any snow that would be considered heavy, but, you guessed it, I'm sitting here hanging on every word, every model, subconsiously hoping it does. Sickness is the only word that can describe this. And if it somehow is like this until Mid-March, I'd saying marriage counseling will be the hot topic issue around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm on board for at least seeing flakes this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Does anyone have any thoughts on how much accumulation would cause significant tree damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Seeing the NAM come aboard (although I'm a bit shocked at how bullish it is) really adds some confidence in at seeing at least some flakes fall. The euro hasn't wavered. The GFS came right around. Now the previously out to lunch NAM is seing the same thing as the globals. That + the fact that we are less than 72 hrs away is really something. Anybody sleeping tomorrow night? Yes, I am. I won't even stay up until the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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