Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 No, not a party pooper. Just pessimistic. He has always been this way, at least for as long as I've been posting here. Meh's severe weather, doesn't really get on board with threats (snow or severe) very often. Plus, how can one be a party pooper, when a system is 5 days out, in Late October. Again, Ian is just keeping it real. I realize you frame it a bit better at the end but this is unfair. I'll just not post here all winter if realist skepticism is treated this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 im just worried about the winter... last winter was pretty awful with people biting on d5+ solutions that never happened. some of you are too sensitive. you should expend that energy in learning meteorology. It's natural to worry about winter around here, and since we're not looking to get a ton of help from the Pacific, it makes more sense to worry this year. I think we were a bit overconfident going into last year after what happened in 09-10. And last year burned this region really badly - only the Hoffman storm salvaged anything from what was pretty much a shambles to that point. I, for one, am making a pledge not to get overly excited about d5+ snowstorms in a northern-stream dominated pattern. Talk about them? Sure. Get excited? Try not to (emphasis on "try"). Except for the above, I've been joking this whole time. It's a Ji thread. We can't be too serious, can we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 earliest i remember seeing accumulating snow is Nov 11,1987. Earlier i remember seeing snow fall is Columbus day.... October 10, 1979 (two days after Columbus Day that year, but before Columbus Day in most years) brought 0.3 inches to DCA and 1.3 inches to IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Oct 10 79 was 2.5 inches here in lyh.. up to 8 inches in the mts to my wst. Good winter here... 30 inches after the October snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 No, not a party pooper. Just pessimistic. He has always been this way, at least for as long as I've been posting here. Meh's severe weather, doesn't really get on board with threats (snow or severe) very often. Plus, how can one be a party pooper, when a system is 5 days out, in Late October. Again, Ian is just keeping it real. Sorry...I think I got carried away with the sarcasm. Many of you guys know each other pretty well. I'm a bit of an outsider, so it doesn't come across so well. See my previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Oct 10 79 was 2.5 inches here in lyh.. up to 8 inches in the mts to my wst. Good winter here... 30 inches after the October snow. so its happened..can happen and may happen again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I realize you frame it a bit better at the end but this is unfair. I'll just not post here all winter if realist skepticism is treated this way. I said you were keeping it real! Twice now I have defended you in this thread and you wanna be mad at me because I sad "pessimistic"? You aren't optimistic, so what would you like me to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Maybe some people get more broken-hearted than I about Day 5+ snow threats that don't come to fruition. Part of the fun of being a snow weenie (IMO) is watching those Day 5-10 threats come and go. I don't get really upset unless a Day 1-2 threat suddently evaporates or turns to rain. I know how the deck is usually stacked against us, but I don't mind striking out 90%+ of the time if we can get a hit or a home run the rest. I'd probably sweat these sort of things more if I was still forecasting for a living, but since I'm not, I just enjoy being a wx weenie. As Ian's readers remind him, busting a forecast sucks and can bring all sorts of wrathful vengeance down on your head from your customers, so that's very good motivation to be cautious and skeptical. But on here, nobody's a "customer", everyone's in this for the same reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Better title Ji...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I said you were keeping it real! Twice now I have defended you in this thread and you wanna be mad at me because I sad "pessimistic"? You aren't optimistic, so what would you like me to say? I'm optimistic when there is a reason to be. I also know more about weather than most people in these threads. It could happen. I seriously doubt it. That's all. This thread should not be about me. Plus sometimes when im adamently against something it happens so maybe that's good news for those who want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I advise keeping your hopes on this "threat" extremely low...perhaps less than 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 how often do we get a massive shortwave digging hard from minnesota to phase in time or correctly? the models were horrendous with nina last winter. with an active and dominant northern stream right now we're likely to have similar problems going forward. That is what I am talking about. Why it is doing that is what I want to watch evolve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 it's not going to snow next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Maybe some people get more broken-hearted than I about Day 5+ snow threats that don't come to fruition. Part of the fun of being a snow weenie (IMO) is watching those Day 5-10 threats come and go. I don't get really upset unless a Day 1-2 threat suddently evaporates or turns to rain. I know how the deck is usually stacked against us, but I don't mind striking out 90%+ of the time if we can get a hit or a home run the rest. I'd probably sweat these sort of things more if I was still forecasting for a living, but since I'm not, I just enjoy being a wx weenie. As Ian's readers remind him, busting a forecast sucks and can bring all sorts of wrathful vengeance down on your head from your customers, so that's very good motivation to be cautious and skeptical. But on here, nobody's a "customer", everyone's in this for the same reason. To be clear I don't care if people talk about the threat or perceived threat. I just didnt want to see Ji create multiple threads by model run etc., which he has been known to do. I just constantly feel like many don't learn the lessons of the past whether they claim they do or not. And it's near-blind faith in the models and the description of those who are measured as "pessimists" which has made people like Matt and others steer clear from these discussions.. and honestly we're worse off for it. My "lolz" comments were probably not the best way to jump in here. So, I'm not claiming the high ground totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I advise keeping your hopes on this "threat" extremely low...perhaps less than 1%. Mine are at about 0.9% currently but that could change around 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 it's not going to snow next weekend... I garauntee that it will... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 it's not going to snow next weekend... How about the one after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It doesn't snow here in October...who cares what a model says at day 6 anyway?.....it would be cold rain anyway and who wants that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I'm optimistic when there is a reason to be. I also know more about weather than most people in these threads. It could happen. I seriously doubt it. That's all. This thread should not be about me. Plus sometimes when im adamently against something it happens so maybe that's good news for those who want snow. I know, so right now you are pessimistic/keeping it real. I'm defending you, Ian... not against you here. But no reason this thread cannot exist... whether it comes to fruition or not. I can count on all fingers/toes how many severe threads were started with Failed results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 How about the one after that? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 no Good to know...I might have plans and would hate to have a snowstorm ruin them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It doesn't snow here in October...who cares what a model says at day 6 anyway?.....it would be cold rain anyway and who wants that? I'll take it for no other reason than wet falls usually precede decent winters, but don't guarantee one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It doesn't snow here in October...who cares what a model says at day 6 anyway?.....it would be cold rain anyway and who wants that? Do you think there is any value in watching how this storm forms to see if it any sort of hint to what may become a pattern for the upcoming winter? I hate doing that myself but there has got to be something to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 my joke answer is I demand equal time for fake snow as for fake severe!!! my real answer: one of the things dT did do well was to explain the setups depicted on a certain model run and how it did or didn't jive with meteorology/physics/math. if you wanted to learn, you could learn. you have the knowledge and you have a temperament that allows you to keep from issuing ALPHA BRAVO over one model run that if 1901891 other things lined up would create a massive storm. I bet people would read and learn from you quite willingly. Well, again.. my issue is much less with the discussion but the idea that people who don't believe the euro are pessimists. Severe weather is, in most cases, more difficult to get to come to fruition than snow around here. But perhaps a valid point. Though I don't think most of us interested in it run toward the top end risk either like is so common in snow discussion. I'm not a met and I already waste enough time here without drawing all over maps to explain something.. Plus when I get super anti something it tends to increase the chances of it happening as I get stubborn like anyone else. If it snows people can thank me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Do you think there is any value in watching how this storm forms to see if it any sort of hint to what may become a pattern for the upcoming winter? I hate doing that myself but there has got to be something to it. no we can start talking about snow in 3 weeks....until then it is all fantasy though something anomalous could happen in elevated areas....I see no value in tracking an event with almost no chance of happening and I don't think it matters at all regarding the storm track or pattern this winter...In early/late season events you get storm tracks that aren't similar to what you get in DJF......when we get inside 48-72 hours and the models are still showing something super interesting, I may pay attention...If someone at 1000'+ 100 miles from DC get a slushy dusting or someone in Hagerstown sees some nonaccumulating flakes mixing in, I guess that is cool?....The models suck at Day 6 and climo doesn't support snow so imo, there is nothing to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 it's the first threat of the season ("threat") and so everyone is here tuning up. once the show begins, the orchestra falls in line and follow the conductor. board fundraising idea: if people donate $XXX, Ian will become super anti [your wishcast] and make it happen! i hear ya. i do like teaching what i know when possible. but when yoda still can't read a model i worry a little... you probably have significantly better odds than just about anyone else of seeing something at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 DC/Balt has seen accumulating snow in OCT 3 times in 125+ years......and all 3 times were Ninos where there was probably a southern stream and moisture overrunning ahead of system......given that we have a 1-2% chance of seeing snow in any given October, this is a Nina and we have no southern stream, but some phase situation that becomes a coastal, I give DC/Balt metro a 1% chance of seeing accumulating snow next weekend....even if everything works out perfectly (which it won't), boundary levels will probably let us down....maybe(5%) someone like Trixie sees some flakes fly or wakes up with a trash can event that melts in 1 hour....what is there to track exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 models are awful at Day 6...why would anyone care what they said anyway?...especially about a setup like this....in October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 October 10, 1979 (two days after Columbus Day that year, but before Columbus Day in most years) brought 0.3 inches to DCA and 1.3 inches to IAD. ...and 14 inches in Warren County, along with the first thundersnow I can recall. Just a wicked event; it's every bit as memorable to me as the Feb '83, Mar '93, Jan '96, etc. I look back now with the experiences of sub 60 degree temps being anomolously cold now for early Oct and wonder how on earth it ever happened. The next earliest snowfall that I can recall was the day before T-day storm in '89. That's 7 weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 DC/Balt has seen accumulating snow in OCT 3 times in 125+ years......and all 3 times were Ninos where there was probably a southern stream and moisture overrunning ahead of system......given that we have a 1-2% chance of seeing snow in any given October, this is a Nina and we have no southern stream, but some phase situation that becomes a coastal, I give DC/Balt metro a 1% chance of seeing accumulating snow next weekend....even if everything works out perfectly (which it won't), boundary levels will probably let us down....maybe(5%) someone like Trixie sees some flakes fly or wakes up with a trash can event that melts in 1 hour....what is there to track exactly? This pretty much sums it up. Granted, snow falling and snow accumulating are two different things, but that's probably not worth going into at this point. Even with the GFS "support", it's still above freezing in the lowest 100-150 mb of the atmosphere, which would convert any potential snow to rain before it hit the ground, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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