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the October snowstorm Ian Disaster its going to be a long winter thread


Ji

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The fact is it is 62 degrees right now. The temperature has not been below freezing in over half a year. Snow will not stick, except for maybe a mini-dusting on the grass. I know weenies posting GFS maps on facebook right now trying to say "seeeee-- we're gonna get half a foot!!!"

:axe::axe::axe::axe:

Having said that, seeing moderate snow fall in October, stickage or not, is really nice.

This is not true. As Ian said, heavy rates often times trump surface temps. I've seen it be 72 degrees the before a storm and it has stuck.

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This is not true. As Ian said, heavy rates often times trump surface temps. I've seen it be 72 degrees the before a storm and it has stuck.

Amazing we still get this every year even from people who have posted on the these boards for a while. Every winter we have an example of warm temps followed by sticking snow yet this keeps coming up.

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Amazing we still get this every year even from people who have posted on the these boards for a while. Every winter we have an example of warm temps followed by sticking snow yet this keeps coming up.

That's the difference though. This is not late Feb or March when the ground temps are cold regardless of the air temps. You can bet that the ground is literally steaming compared to any winter storm scenario that you can think of. I too think that sticking snow is possible, but only to grass, leaves, branches, metal, etc. and even then, it will have to fall at a rate that exceeds its melt time because regardless of what it's on, if it's close to the ground it will start to melt as soon as it lands. The central Pa storm of a couple years ago is proof that it will stick, but it is a longshot.

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It does look pretty amped. If it ends up looking like the GFS and euro tomorrow, I'd go with it's sounding over those of the GFS.

yup it should have a much better representation of the BL

one thing thats often predictable.. the nam will be out to lunch till 1-2 days out.

...fitting to figure it out on an off-cycle run

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That's the difference though. This is not late Feb or March when the ground temps are cold regardless of the air temps. You can bet that the ground is literally steaming compared to any winter storm scenario that you can think of. I too think that sticking snow is possible, but only to grass, leaves, branches, metal, etc. and even then, it will have to fall at a rate that exceeds its melt time because regardless of what it's on, if it's close to the ground it will start to melt as soon as it lands. The central Pa storm of a couple years ago is proof that it will stick, but it is a longshot.

It's clearly an issue but the other poster said no snow will stick because it's been warm and a half yr since a freeze etc. Heavy rates can overcome most obstacles though obviously roads etc won't likely be a huge problem if it's during the day in particular. If it's all light then you're definitely into more of an issue. Both sides get kind of stubborn on this..

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Once it comes into line, I'll be interested in the temp profiles as it has better resolution of the terrain than the GFS.

Yeah, NAM is definitely usually better when they match up on thermal profiles.

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NAM is much colder at the surface...raw model output is good deal of snow from DCA to BWI to PHL

That's troubling in a good way, I don't like to get too excited bout it until we get into the 36 hour time range but if it has a decent storm track and evolution of the storm, it should have a better thermal profile. I actually wish I was doing a full post tomorrow.

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That's troubling in a good way, I don't like to get too excited bout it until we get into the 36 hour time range but if it has a decent storm track and evolution of the storm, it should have a better thermal profile. I actually wish I was doing a full post tomorrow.

dynamics win on this run vs. a warm BL

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looks like it stalls the low out for a while... hard to buy its output given it's just now coming on board

yeah i'm going to take a pass on getting super excited over the 18z NAM but the trend towards a more dynamic system is a good step towards the rest of guidance.

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