nj2va Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Alexandria&state=VA&site=LWX&textField1=38.821&textField2=-77.0862&e=0 for Alexandria Sweet, any mention of snow in my forecast in October and I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The fact is it is 62 degrees right now. The temperature has not been below freezing in over half a year. Snow will not stick, except for maybe a mini-dusting on the grass. I know weenies posting GFS maps on facebook right now trying to say "seeeee-- we're gonna get half a foot!!!" :axe::axe: Having said that, seeing moderate snow fall in October, stickage or not, is really nice. This is not true. As Ian said, heavy rates often times trump surface temps. I've seen it be 72 degrees the before a storm and it has stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is not true. As Ian said, heavy rates often times trump surface temps. I've seen it be 72 degrees the before a storm and it has stuck. Amazing we still get this every year even from people who have posted on the these boards for a while. Every winter we have an example of warm temps followed by sticking snow yet this keeps coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 And plus, the leaves on the trees will be blocking out the early year sun angle. This is not true. As Ian said, heavy rates often times trump surface temps. I've seen it be 72 degrees the before a storm and it has stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM looks like its going to finally come to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM looks like its going to finally come to the party. It does look pretty amped. If it ends up looking like the GFS and euro tomorrow, I'd go with it's sounding over those of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM looks like its going to finally come to the party. one thing thats often predictable.. the nam will be out to lunch till 1-2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Amazing we still get this every year even from people who have posted on the these boards for a while. Every winter we have an example of warm temps followed by sticking snow yet this keeps coming up. That's the difference though. This is not late Feb or March when the ground temps are cold regardless of the air temps. You can bet that the ground is literally steaming compared to any winter storm scenario that you can think of. I too think that sticking snow is possible, but only to grass, leaves, branches, metal, etc. and even then, it will have to fall at a rate that exceeds its melt time because regardless of what it's on, if it's close to the ground it will start to melt as soon as it lands. The central Pa storm of a couple years ago is proof that it will stick, but it is a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It does look pretty amped. If it ends up looking like the GFS and euro tomorrow, I'd go with it's sounding over those of the GFS. yup it should have a much better representation of the BL one thing thats often predictable.. the nam will be out to lunch till 1-2 days out. ...fitting to figure it out on an off-cycle run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 one thing thats often predictable.. the nam will be out to lunch till 1-2 days out. Once it comes into line, I'll be interested in the temp profiles as it has better resolution of the terrain than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That's the difference though. This is not late Feb or March when the ground temps are cold regardless of the air temps. You can bet that the ground is literally steaming compared to any winter storm scenario that you can think of. I too think that sticking snow is possible, but only to grass, leaves, branches, metal, etc. and even then, it will have to fall at a rate that exceeds its melt time because regardless of what it's on, if it's close to the ground it will start to melt as soon as it lands. The central Pa storm of a couple years ago is proof that it will stick, but it is a longshot. It's clearly an issue but the other poster said no snow will stick because it's been warm and a half yr since a freeze etc. Heavy rates can overcome most obstacles though obviously roads etc won't likely be a huge problem if it's during the day in particular. If it's all light then you're definitely into more of an issue. Both sides get kind of stubborn on this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM is much colder at the surface...raw model output is good deal of snow from DCA to BWI to PHL 32 to 33 at 18z Saturday at the 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's snowing in DC on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Once it comes into line, I'll be interested in the temp profiles as it has better resolution of the terrain than the GFS. Yeah, NAM is definitely usually better when they match up on thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 51hrs OMG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM is much colder at the surface...raw model output is good deal of snow from DCA to BWI to PHL That's troubling in a good way, I don't like to get too excited bout it until we get into the 36 hour time range but if it has a decent storm track and evolution of the storm, it should have a better thermal profile. I actually wish I was doing a full post tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 good lord look at the precip on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 2''+QPF for BWI/DCA, 2m temps in the 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That's troubling in a good way, I don't like to get too excited bout it until we get into the 36 hour time range but if it has a decent storm track and evolution of the storm, it should have a better thermal profile. I actually wish I was doing a full post tomorrow. dynamics win on this run vs. a warm BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 good lord look at the precip on the nam 5 degrees colder, and it reminds me of the 12/17/09 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The NAM is ridiculous. The heavier precip would easily overcome the surface layer warmth. The only problem is, the NAM often over corrects itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 it's not even a close call for DCA if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 looks like it stalls the low out for a while... hard to buy its output given it's just now coming on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 it's not even a close call for DCA if this verifies. NAM drops over an inch qpf at BWI, and close to that at DCA/IAD the 3 hours ending 54 hrs, and it's all snow per MNTransplant's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 51hrs is heavy QPF, surface temps in the Mid 30s, and 850s below freezing, thats a wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 looks like it stalls the low out for a while... hard to buy its output given it's just now coming on board like I said, looks like the 18Z run from 12/17/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 looks like it stalls the low out for a while... hard to buy its output given it's just now coming on board yeah i'm going to take a pass on getting super excited over the 18z NAM but the trend towards a more dynamic system is a good step towards the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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