TradeWinds Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i dont know exactly where that is, but i'd be down to chip in if it looks like it will happen. Sugarloaf: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugarloaf_Mountain_%28Maryland%29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot Read Wes's column...he mentions this and every other factor as well of course.....though I wonder if he won't have to be slightly more bullish for places in Upper MOCO and Loudoun tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's not even 400' to the top. Parking lot is well above 800'. It's a privately run area. It would be lame if they lock the gate because of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Read Wes's column...he mentions this and every other factor as well of course.....though I wonder if he won't have to be slightly more bullish for places in Upper MOCO and Loudoun tomorrow.... http://www.americanw...bout-the-storm/ Ji is already calling for snow likely at his location. He's the one to beat on this storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Read Wes's column...he mentions this and every other factor as well of course.....though I wonder if he won't have to be slightly more bullish for places in Upper MOCO and Loudoun tomorrow.... http://www.americanw...bout-the-storm/ Tomorrow, Jason probably will do the article but we'll talk about putting out a map with accumulations if warranted. I might not have been bullish enough but it's October and we're still over 36 hrs from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot My neighborhood in Damascus has hill tops at 800+ feet. Many have mentioned Sugarloaf Mt. (1,200') which is a favorite hiking spot of mine. There is a nice winery at the base of the Sugar Loaf Mountain on Comus Rd. They open around 2:00pm. It is a nice place to end a day of hiking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ji is already calling for snow likely at his location. He's the one to beat on this storm so far. Well he was on it at 384 hrs, that's hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 sugarloaf?.... I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 why dosent this stuff happen in Dec or January I have mentioned this before....In NIna we get better/anomalous storm tracks early and late season....I wish I would have done the CWG outlook 2 weeks ago, because I would have mentioned this exact scenario as the way IAD could do better this winter if they do better.....Once we hit mid DEC to Early Feb, assuming Nina really kicks in, the northern stream becomes a monster and this scenario gets shunted out to sea or strung out or cuts west and redevelops to our north if at all....we can do ok in mid winter, but we will probably need to thread the needle( Jan 2000) or somehow get the PAC to cooperate when we have blocking (70-71).....Maybe we will all bust and NIna won't be a big factor but I doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Tomorrow, Jason probably will do the article but we'll talk about putting out a map with accumulations if warranted. I might not have been bullish enough but it's October and we're still over 36 hrs from the event. no...you went as bullish as you can possibly go at this range on October 27th.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 this could be dt's biggest win in ages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I have mentioned this before....In NIna we get better/anomalous storm tracks early and late season....I wish I would have done the CWG outlook 2 weeks ago, because I would have mentioned this exact scenario as the way IAD could do better this winter if they do better.....Once we hit mid DEC to Early Feb, assuming Nina really kicks in, the northern stream becomes a monster and this scenario gets shunted out to sea or strung out or cuts west and redevelops to our north if at all....we can do ok in mid winter, but we will probably need to thread the needle( Jan 2000) or somehow get the PAC to cooperate when we have blocking (70-71).....Maybe we will all bust and NIna won't be a big factor but I doubt it It's funny, I was thinking of doing an article prior to the season on the ingredients it takes to get a major snowstorm and why nina years are tougher for that to happen than nino years but delayed doing it and now we've already have a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Tomorrow, Jason probably will do the article but we'll talk about putting out a map with accumulations if warranted. I might not have been bullish enough but it's October and we're still over 36 hrs from the event. Good writeup! With an event you kinda have to toe the line a bit because it's just so anomalous...even if the guidance stays the same, it will still come down to a nowcasting situation of where accumulating snow may occur on saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'd be so happy if I see snow in the air this weekend...can't believe we're even talking about that! Lots of time though, especially in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I have mentioned this before....In NIna we get better/anomalous storm tracks early and late season....I wish I would have done the CWG outlook 2 weeks ago, because I would have mentioned this exact scenario as the way IAD could do better this winter if they do better.....Once we hit mid DEC to Early Feb, assuming Nina really kicks in, the northern stream becomes a monster and this scenario gets shunted out to sea or strung out or cuts west and redevelops to our north if at all....we can do ok in mid winter, but we will probably need to thread the needle( Jan 2000) or somehow get the PAC to cooperate when we have blocking (70-71).....Maybe we will all bust and NIna won't be a big factor but I doubt it early in the thread I posted the CFS daily Enso forecast and it seems to be backing down some on the Nina fwiw http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/PDFcr_nino34SSTMon.gif there's always hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 this could be dt's biggest win in ages But is it really a win when the GFS showed this 2 weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Good writeup! With an event you kinda have to toe the line a bit because it's just so anomalous...even if the guidance stays the same, it will still come down to a nowcasting situation of where accumulating snow may occur on saturday... Thanks, I think you do. Sometimes like in 2009-2010 it pays when you try to be a hero but usually being conservative is a smarter bet in marginal situations. I also left it open that it could end up being worse than what we're calling for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 From ze blog: In the southern edge of the snowfall accumulation, surface temperatures are expected to remain too warm for accumulation of an inch or more. Some higher elevations (above 800 feet) just south of the one inch cut off could scrape out a dusting to an inch of accumulation. Weak warm air advection N/NW of the surface low is expected to keep the lower levels warm enough to prevent most of the accumulation in southern and central NJ and northeastern Delmarva. I decided to go with a 50/50 split between the latest (12z) GFS and ECMWF operational models. The NAM seems to be out to lunch with this system, as most other models agree with what the GFS and ECMWF put on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 But is it really a win when the GFS showed this 2 weeks ago? broken clock.... he's too concrete at d5 for my liking but 2 weeks out is a joke. the gfs always has a snowstorm 2 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 broken clock.... he's too concrete at d5 for my liking but 2 weeks out is a joke. the gfs always has a snowstorm 2 weeks out. Sorry, I should have added a or a to the end of my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i dont know exactly where that is, but i'd be down to chip in if it looks like it will happen. Comus, MD - great hiking there. <3 Sugarloaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Boringgggg looks pretty good for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's funny, I was thinking of doing an article prior to the season on the ingredients it takes to get a major snowstorm and why nina years are tougher for that to happen than nino years but delayed doing it and now we've already have a threat. we will see what happens, but whatever occurs, it will make a nice lead in to the Winter outlook which will probably come out next week...I should have a draft done by Saturday.....I still kind of think our biggest event in the heart of winter 12/15 - 2/15 will be a K/U type storm that doesn't hit us flush...maybe a Miller B that really nails NYC and/or Boston but we back our way in enough to get a decent hit....I hope if we get a nice 4-8 or 6-10" event that it isn't bittersweet for people if places outside our area get 12"+....I think it will probably have more to do with the models than anything.....a lot of posters seem to think that if the models show a big event at some point and then back off closer in, that somehow the event underperformed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's funny, I was thinking of doing an article prior to the season on the ingredients it takes to get a major snowstorm and why nina years are tougher for that to happen than nino years but delayed doing it and now we've already have a threat. I hope you write that article. I am sure we all would enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Most realistic thing I've seen so far. Snow.is.not.going.to.accumulate.in.DC.or.immediate.suburbs.in.October. ...We now return you to your regularly scheduled space bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Most realistic thing I've seen so far. Snow.is.not.going.to.accumulate.in.DC.or.immediate.suburbs.in.October. ...We now return you to your regularly scheduled space bar. The fact is it is 62 degrees right now. The temperature has not been below freezing in over half a year. Snow will not stick, except for maybe a mini-dusting on the grass. I know weenies posting GFS maps on facebook right now trying to say "seeeee-- we're gonna get half a foot!!!" :axe::axe: Having said that, seeing moderate snow fall in October, stickage or not, is really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 anyone see this on the 8 day Euro? I know it's 8 days, but hey, whoda' thunk a few days ago on Sat possible event http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011102712!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The fact is it is 62 degrees right now. The temperature has not been below freezing in over half a year. Snow will not stick, except for maybe a mini-dusting on the grass. I know weenies posting GFS maps on facebook right now trying to say "seeeee-- we're gonna get half a foot!!!" :axe::axe: Having said that, seeing moderate snow fall in October, stickage or not, is really nice. that's not really true if you get rates.. but the snow maps spit out of the models are surely silly in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Alexandria&state=VA&site=LWX&textField1=38.821&textField2=-77.0862&e=0 for Alexandria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18Z NAM starting. InstantWeatherMaps.com has the fastest updates and highest resolution, as well as having the full hourly out to 36. okie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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