mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot Marcus will get absolutely crushed, absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Just curious, this is an unusual setup for late oct to say the least. Water temps off the atl coast are 60-65. Air temps are potentially going to be in the 30's. Pretty big temp diff and I assume pretty strong baroclonic zone. How well do models interpret this into their solutions? A 30+ degree temp difference is pretty big compared to many winter storms that pop off the coast N of the gulfstream areas close to obx. I'm probably just being a weenie but I wonder if the system evolves as depicted on the gfs/euro, could it potentially deepen rapidly and be more dynamic that what is modeled? That is probably the only thing that could help our area get any measurable snowfall given the marginal cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot I will likely be heading into the Catoctin's in to see how much difference that makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot saturday roadtrip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot I"m putting my ski gear on and taking my boy for a hike up sugarloaf. 1,200' just over the moco county line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot Catoctins in Frederick County peak about 1200' or 1300'. I'm in Frederick but only 350'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 sugarloaf?.... i dont know exactly where that is, but i'd be down to chip in if it looks like it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 My yard is at 500' asl, but I can be above 1000' ft. with a 10 minute drive. The GFS looks lovely hr 48-54 for HGR: http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_khgr.txt FDK also: http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kFDK.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 have you looked at soundings for your backyard?.....are you too far west? Can't look at much, since I'm at school. Just happens to be testing day. From what I can surmise here, looks like the precip came west. I don't know temps, rates, or soundings back in my area. Maybe someone can enlighten me. Edit: GFS data on MeteoStar looks pretty good for my area, but that's only precip, 850 and surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i dont know exactly where that is, but i'd be down to chip in if it looks like it will happen. Super easy to get to. Up 270 to route 121 and only about 5-6 miles off the interstate. Hike starts close to the top. Only have to go up 400' to hit the top. Should make for some good pics with the leaves and all.....well, only if it actually snows.... edit- route 109 exit 22 is closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Super easy to get to. Up 270 to route 121 and only about 5-6 miles off the interstate. Hike starts close to the top. Only have to go up 400' to hit the top. Should make for some good pics with the leaves and all.....well, only if it actually snows.... edit- route 109 exit 22 is closest. i think i've been by it before.. on the way to HGR etc. i don't know much about places outside the immediate area not having a car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Catoctins in Frederick County peak about 1200' or 1300'. I'm in Frederick but only 350'. I hear ya. I'm at 300 ft, but when sitting on my deck, I look up to the Catoctins at over 1550 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 yes....you have an interesting column for later.....I wonder if/where there will be accumulation.....the sun angle is the same as about February 14th.....I think it would have to be heavy snow to stick on the warm streets...but it should stick to decks, grass, etc, if heavy enough and 34 or lower i would imagine why dosent this stuff happen in Dec or January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i dont know exactly where that is, but i'd be down to chip in if it looks like it will happen. Sugarloaf: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugarloaf_Mountain_%28Maryland%29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's not even 400' to the top. Parking lot is well above 800'. It's a privately run area. It would be lame if they lock the gate because of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Read Wes's column...he mentions this and every other factor as well of course.....though I wonder if he won't have to be slightly more bullish for places in Upper MOCO and Loudoun tomorrow.... http://www.americanw...bout-the-storm/ Ji is already calling for snow likely at his location. He's the one to beat on this storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Read Wes's column...he mentions this and every other factor as well of course.....though I wonder if he won't have to be slightly more bullish for places in Upper MOCO and Loudoun tomorrow.... http://www.americanw...bout-the-storm/ Tomorrow, Jason probably will do the article but we'll talk about putting out a map with accumulations if warranted. I might not have been bullish enough but it's October and we're still over 36 hrs from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot My neighborhood in Damascus has hill tops at 800+ feet. Many have mentioned Sugarloaf Mt. (1,200') which is a favorite hiking spot of mine. There is a nice winery at the base of the Sugar Loaf Mountain on Comus Rd. They open around 2:00pm. It is a nice place to end a day of hiking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ji is already calling for snow likely at his location. He's the one to beat on this storm so far. Well he was on it at 384 hrs, that's hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 sugarloaf?.... I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 this could be dt's biggest win in ages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I have mentioned this before....In NIna we get better/anomalous storm tracks early and late season....I wish I would have done the CWG outlook 2 weeks ago, because I would have mentioned this exact scenario as the way IAD could do better this winter if they do better.....Once we hit mid DEC to Early Feb, assuming Nina really kicks in, the northern stream becomes a monster and this scenario gets shunted out to sea or strung out or cuts west and redevelops to our north if at all....we can do ok in mid winter, but we will probably need to thread the needle( Jan 2000) or somehow get the PAC to cooperate when we have blocking (70-71).....Maybe we will all bust and NIna won't be a big factor but I doubt it It's funny, I was thinking of doing an article prior to the season on the ingredients it takes to get a major snowstorm and why nina years are tougher for that to happen than nino years but delayed doing it and now we've already have a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Tomorrow, Jason probably will do the article but we'll talk about putting out a map with accumulations if warranted. I might not have been bullish enough but it's October and we're still over 36 hrs from the event. Good writeup! With an event you kinda have to toe the line a bit because it's just so anomalous...even if the guidance stays the same, it will still come down to a nowcasting situation of where accumulating snow may occur on saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'd be so happy if I see snow in the air this weekend...can't believe we're even talking about that! Lots of time though, especially in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I have mentioned this before....In NIna we get better/anomalous storm tracks early and late season....I wish I would have done the CWG outlook 2 weeks ago, because I would have mentioned this exact scenario as the way IAD could do better this winter if they do better.....Once we hit mid DEC to Early Feb, assuming Nina really kicks in, the northern stream becomes a monster and this scenario gets shunted out to sea or strung out or cuts west and redevelops to our north if at all....we can do ok in mid winter, but we will probably need to thread the needle( Jan 2000) or somehow get the PAC to cooperate when we have blocking (70-71).....Maybe we will all bust and NIna won't be a big factor but I doubt it early in the thread I posted the CFS daily Enso forecast and it seems to be backing down some on the Nina fwiw http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/PDFcr_nino34SSTMon.gif there's always hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 this could be dt's biggest win in ages But is it really a win when the GFS showed this 2 weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Good writeup! With an event you kinda have to toe the line a bit because it's just so anomalous...even if the guidance stays the same, it will still come down to a nowcasting situation of where accumulating snow may occur on saturday... Thanks, I think you do. Sometimes like in 2009-2010 it pays when you try to be a hero but usually being conservative is a smarter bet in marginal situations. I also left it open that it could end up being worse than what we're calling for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 From ze blog: In the southern edge of the snowfall accumulation, surface temperatures are expected to remain too warm for accumulation of an inch or more. Some higher elevations (above 800 feet) just south of the one inch cut off could scrape out a dusting to an inch of accumulation. Weak warm air advection N/NW of the surface low is expected to keep the lower levels warm enough to prevent most of the accumulation in southern and central NJ and northeastern Delmarva. I decided to go with a 50/50 split between the latest (12z) GFS and ECMWF operational models. The NAM seems to be out to lunch with this system, as most other models agree with what the GFS and ECMWF put on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 But is it really a win when the GFS showed this 2 weeks ago? broken clock.... he's too concrete at d5 for my liking but 2 weeks out is a joke. the gfs always has a snowstorm 2 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 broken clock.... he's too concrete at d5 for my liking but 2 weeks out is a joke. the gfs always has a snowstorm 2 weeks out. Sorry, I should have added a or a to the end of my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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