yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If that is the euro, 51 hrs or 54 hrs would be better. At 48 hrs, the 850 looks about the same as the GFS 850 temps. Okies... Midlo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Too bad this isn't 3 weeks later.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wunderground Euro weenie snow maps are out and are very fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Too bad this isn't 3 weeks later.... That's what I mentioned to Jason. If it were we'd be in for pretty good snow as the vort track, surface, 850 are really nice looking. It's just the time of year and the low level temps that mess things up. Too bad there is the lag between the sun and the cooling of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is ridiculous all around... what an unbelievable set of runs for late october.. my brain says no and so does my heart.. seems too good to be true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looking at the ECMWF-- it matches the GFS in my area in southern VA, h85 low forms JUST to my south and we sit on the "warm" side of 0c for much of the even. Need that to nudge E 100 miles or so. Not likely-- and hope the other factors such as BL temps work out. I think it's a big event from the NRV NE along the Blue Ridge-- NW corner of my county is 3k feet-- they will do great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wunderground Euro weenie snow maps are out and are very fun to look at. dropped me down to 4"+ from 7"+ on the 0Z run still unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Euro is also very cold for Sunday. Lows in the upper 20s for many of us. Highs on Sunday don't get out of the 30s in colder spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wunderground Euro weenie snow maps are out and are very fun to look at. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That's what I mentioned to Jason. If it were we'd be in for pretty good snow as the vort track, surface, 850 are really nice looking. It's just the time of year and the low level temps that mess things up. Too bad there is the lag between the sun and the cooling of the atmosphere. yes....you have an interesting column for later.....I wonder if/where there will be accumulation.....the sun angle is the same as about February 14th.....I think it would have to be heavy snow to stick on the warm streets...but it should stick to decks, grass, etc, if heavy enough and 34 or lower i would imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 To think I am pulling an all-night snow vigil in October is unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 To think I am pulling an all-night snow vigil in October is unreal! why would you do that?....you live in Arlington.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 yes....you have an interesting column for later.....I wonder if/where there will be accumulation.....the sun angle is the same as about February 14th.....I think it would have to be heavy snow to stick on the warm streets...but it should stick to decks, grass, etc, if heavy enough and 34 or lower i would imagine It needs to get in the mid 30s....maybe even 35 would do it. The sun isn't the problem its that in October there is way less cold air around to tap than Feb. Intensity matters alot. The sounding had areas where the temp and dewpoint followed the moist adiabat which if you got enough lifting might argue for getting convection. They didn't however show an unstable layer that I could find around our area but it wouldn't take too much change to the thermal structure to get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot I am, but I'm also west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot Marcus will get absolutely crushed, absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Just curious, this is an unusual setup for late oct to say the least. Water temps off the atl coast are 60-65. Air temps are potentially going to be in the 30's. Pretty big temp diff and I assume pretty strong baroclonic zone. How well do models interpret this into their solutions? A 30+ degree temp difference is pretty big compared to many winter storms that pop off the coast N of the gulfstream areas close to obx. I'm probably just being a weenie but I wonder if the system evolves as depicted on the gfs/euro, could it potentially deepen rapidly and be more dynamic that what is modeled? That is probably the only thing that could help our area get any measurable snowfall given the marginal cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot I will likely be heading into the Catoctin's in to see how much difference that makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot saturday roadtrip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I am, but I'm also west. have you looked at soundings for your backyard?.....are you too far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot I"m putting my ski gear on and taking my boy for a hike up sugarloaf. 1,200' just over the moco county line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Is anyone above 800-1000'?....elevation will probably matter a lot Catoctins in Frederick County peak about 1200' or 1300'. I'm in Frederick but only 350'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 saturday roadtrip? sugarloaf?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 sugarloaf?.... i dont know exactly where that is, but i'd be down to chip in if it looks like it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 My yard is at 500' asl, but I can be above 1000' ft. with a 10 minute drive. The GFS looks lovely hr 48-54 for HGR: http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_khgr.txt FDK also: http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kFDK.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 have you looked at soundings for your backyard?.....are you too far west? Can't look at much, since I'm at school. Just happens to be testing day. From what I can surmise here, looks like the precip came west. I don't know temps, rates, or soundings back in my area. Maybe someone can enlighten me. Edit: GFS data on MeteoStar looks pretty good for my area, but that's only precip, 850 and surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i dont know exactly where that is, but i'd be down to chip in if it looks like it will happen. Super easy to get to. Up 270 to route 121 and only about 5-6 miles off the interstate. Hike starts close to the top. Only have to go up 400' to hit the top. Should make for some good pics with the leaves and all.....well, only if it actually snows.... edit- route 109 exit 22 is closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Super easy to get to. Up 270 to route 121 and only about 5-6 miles off the interstate. Hike starts close to the top. Only have to go up 400' to hit the top. Should make for some good pics with the leaves and all.....well, only if it actually snows.... edit- route 109 exit 22 is closest. i think i've been by it before.. on the way to HGR etc. i don't know much about places outside the immediate area not having a car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Catoctins in Frederick County peak about 1200' or 1300'. I'm in Frederick but only 350'. I hear ya. I'm at 300 ft, but when sitting on my deck, I look up to the Catoctins at over 1550 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 yes....you have an interesting column for later.....I wonder if/where there will be accumulation.....the sun angle is the same as about February 14th.....I think it would have to be heavy snow to stick on the warm streets...but it should stick to decks, grass, etc, if heavy enough and 34 or lower i would imagine why dosent this stuff happen in Dec or January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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